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@JG - it's not the kind of share that is going to explode on news. There's huge potential in both the telecom and the money market in Africa, really promising investment opportunity but unlikely to much use for day trading.

@fudgerella30 - what's the point of all these vague ramping posts?

@Cyclist - it seems a reasonable assumption and presumably formation of a world council and the green accreditation ideas all tend in that direction. There's a well-worn tendency in more established markets towards isomorphism with fewer/larger suppliers and fewer/larger customers. ARB is not the largest (yet) and there's always risk for smaller fish in bigger ponds but it is has both competitive advantage and innovation/diversification potential, which positions it well.

Thanks for the links and test data updates/explanations, very helpful

It’s mainly just because the entire crypto market took a significant dip, the price of BTC and all the miners went down similarly. ARB has been relatively resilient so far and I wouldn’t worry about it recovering during this year.

BTC is up 5% and you think ARB should open up more than double that?

That’s very optimistic, one step at a time.

Yes, really it's just a case of 'assets and earnings' but the only oddity is that the only future 'earnings' are in the accumulating 'assets' (until the business model changes).

Open / Close: 125.00 / 133.00
High / Low: 136.00 / 126.50
Bid / Offer: 130.00 / 131.00

...I topped up again today :-)

No-one knows, but if you're already set on buying then before Friday might be wise, or just buy in tranches each day to average your entry level.

@Hexam - I think that's fair, the two sets of assumptions are clearly different (future productivity versus BTC accumulation) so they ought to be separated in estimation. However, we should keep in mind that both projections are contingent on assumption about BTC future value (one directly, one indirectly).

...still waiting... but I have no idea what you're waiting for, BTC level and shares up 12%, great day!

Yes, on past record ARB tends to amplify/leverage upward movements in BTC (although I'd be surprised if the over-enthusiasm of February was repeated to the same degree). With luck BTC will step up towards Friday and ARB will continue to magnify that trend.

...this year https://imgur.com/yo2TVD0

@Just_the_facts - I think your worked example is fair. People will make their own differing assumptions if they want to but my general sense is similar to yours. I think you're right to put xP/E on assets as well as the earnings, because you have to consider that the accumulated coin is not being sold and it is (at least S2F predicts) increasing in value by the same kind of factor as earnings over the medium term. Maybe we choose to apply different X factors to HODL and to earnings but the principle is right (the company is not selling it's product and its product is appreciating). I think where we are today, looking at this years earnings and HODL, at today's prices, you're not far off the mark. Intuitively, I would have stuck a pin in the donkey at 170-190p. In September it will look different again, and next year, no doubt. Confidence in valuation is all about how far forward investors are prepared to look at any given date.

Based on a highly complex technical calculation, that would be 'a lot'.

That's not very likely is it?

5-10% seems more likely?

Optimum pain extraction point the option writers is around $54k on Friday, game on...