Member Info for Blubay

Tanzania = ranked 141 out of 190 by the World Bank for 'ease of doing business' (HE1 have done really well in navigating this with the current government but don't underestimate the politics of sitting on a multi-billion dollar discovery).

"We typically work on smaller margins of success being repeated. We can't afford to that get many wrong if we are to make money out of it."

if there are maybe 200 working days in a year then you'd probably need 100 blue days, however small (and at least 50 days sitting on your hands avoiding temptation).

@panic - "Strange when BTC move down this move LOW... But when BTC up this holds down"

That simply isn't true, look back at the comparative charts for this year.

if I understood correctly, the plan is to wire log from this 400m lake bed drill, before drilling down narrower to the 1200m base. Not sure if there's a wire log at each of the three assumed trap levels.

You'll always get traders and investors in the same share at moments like this, different strokes for different folks. Traders can miss out by selling one day and then miss out by not selling the next day. Investors can make more and they can lose more too. I'm invested in this one but I don't blame anyone for trading on prospect shares (if they can make 1% in a day they can still make 100% or more in a year). Can always filter them out on the chat

"Presumably people only bought into HE1 because of the belief it would strike Helium"

Most investors are motivated by profit, and not losing too much, rather than discovering Helium. Initial investors will be out in while or part by now, taking their profits on the rise in anticipation of drill results (irrespective of discovery), and move on to another venture, but they may also have options to come back in later at discount prices (winning both ways).

As others have said, it's a risky investment and there's still a lot of risk in it. If there was no risk then you can bet we'd all be paying the unrisked price for shares at this point!

...but as Seagull says...

I imagine the Chinese or Russians will be interested in cornering the resource potential (and not least because the US has decreasing options), so not necessarily a publicly listed company. I presume the Tanzanian government will want to retain a long-term stake in profits (one way or another).

"Why would anyone want to derisk?"

Lots of reasons, but if they were going to do so then they'd probably have done it pre-drill or will do as the SP approaches the current NAV risked estimate (25.1p). A confirmed Helium discovery will obviously send it higher, and people will derisk at that point too (e.g. at 30 or 33p). Failure to confirm a discovery at Tai (e.g. geological migration) will send it lower, pending news from further drills. Then there's all the subsequent risks, like Covid-19 collapsing the Tanzanian economy (or the drill crew), change of government, etc. I'm optimistic but I understand why people choose to derisk or 'sell on news' if they're not invested long term.

sorry, unrisked NAV of 133p was mentioned in yesterday's revision (although still 128 in the final table)

Yesterday's NAV risked on the campaign was 25.1p ('unrisked' was 128p)

It's not a leak, there was an RNS and then an independent industry risk assessment published yesterday which put the NAV risked SP at 25.1p (and the unrisked at 128p)

"Helium One expects to be producing helium from Tanzania by the end of 2020"

Where have HE1 said this?

Read today's H&P report, there is a table at the end with their full range of share valuations per risk and commodity price

Zoom out, it happens all the time, and overall, ARB does better than BTC, let's hope it continues.

any thoughts?

...or they've hit an operational problem and the CEO needs to go and sort it out, we'll have to wait and see, I'm optimistic, fingers crossed :-)

">US$1bn - Unrisked value of the 4 prospects planned to be drilled in 2021"

Depending on price of helium in the market, still looking like value buy at this price with great upside potential if they strike lucky. Fingers crossed.

"In our base case scenario, we use a helium price of US$250/mcf long-term flat from 2021 and a 12% discount rate from 1/1/2021. Our risked NAV is 25p/sh, which implies 25% upside from the current share price. On an unrisked basis, we
have a NAV of £1.33/sh or ~6x upside. Further to this are the follow-on prospects that are not included in our NAV and its other exploration areas. A US$50/mcf increase in the helium price would increase our risked NAV by 6p/sh and
unrisked by 33p/sh." (H&P estimates, 23 June)

Key takeaways for me...

"We think it is important to distinguish between a helium show in this basin and an oil and gas show when drilling a hydrocarbon exploration well. A helium show in a virgin basin is highly significant as for the first time it proves the existence of helium in the subsurface."

" Helium seepages are evidence of a prolific subsurface helium-rich fluid system"

"The two historic (dry) petroleum exploration wells in the Rukwa Basin demonstrate stratigraphy with effective seal capacity"

"Our risked NAV is 25p/sh, which implies 25% upside from the current share price. On an unrisked basis, we have a NAV of £1.33/sh or ~6x upside.

...Further to this are the follow-on prospects that are not included in our NAV and its other exploration areas."