Member Info for Blubay

This relates to derivative 'instruments related to crypto-assets' not to BTC

BTC is not 'tumbling' it's hardly moved for a month

Everyone has their own price point and their own investment timescale. Obviously, anyone who set a price of £2 and a return date of July 2021 was unlucky or misguided. Anyone who set a price at £1.50 with a return date of October 2021 will probably see their money back and profit. Anyone setting their price this week at £1 with a return in 2022 will likely be laughing. The people holding £2.50 on a five year return will also be quids in then. Horses for courses. Never pick holes in someone else's price if they have different strategy to you.

and you signed up to LSE as a new member yesterday just to give us the benefit of this opinion, remarkably generous.

How's it going trying to short RR on their board?

Great prices to get in at today

Far too much ramping and over-expectation here, wild cat drilling is a risk shot. This first drill has been very diligently and patiently de-risked but that doesn't make it a certainty and no-one should feel 'cheated' if it doesn't deliver 'the motherload' in the first month. If it was a certainty then the share price would be what, maybe four times higher? (there's a clue as to why it isn't yet). DM has been very careful not to ramp up expectation and it doesn't really help to over-interpret every remark or facial expression. Be optimistic, be realistic, if not this drill then there are more. We'll get there.

Err... you mean like London Stock Exchange?

Yes, that should maintain their scale advantage, although I think ARB's planned expansion is proportionally greater if you take current output as a benchmark?

yes, despite the in/accuracies of any specific daily calculation, I'd cautiously estimate the lower end of the suggested range (and coincidentally where my erroneous jotting pointed). Anything above that, great.

One of the attractions of ARB is increasing profitability + absence of significant debt.

As the strategy is based heavily on HODL (and this dependency increases over time, and with use as collateral) then we may expect the SP to be influenced more by sentiment about medium term future value of BTC than daily fluctuation. Sentiment has been increasingly bearish so it's not surprising the SP has drifted down. Short term rise in BTC may give a lift but I'd be looking for medium term confidence in BTC to raise confidence in ARB strategy also.

Which is why RIOT has been climbing more steadily against competitors, but the proportional investment upside on a more early stage company like ARB is greater, especially given that the Texas development and new machines are already in the pipeline.

@Hex - "Sorry Blubay but don't quite agree with your numbers".

mea culpa, more haste less speed :-)

167 / 30 = 5.56 daily average in June

5.56 x 3 = 16.7 to 3 July

5.57 x 1.2794 = 7.13 daily average after 3 July

7.13 x 28 = 199.5 for the remainder of July

16.7 + 199.5 = 216.2 for the month ? (assuming no production problems or additional new mining capacity)

absolutely no chance of a Bank Holiday without Parliamentary vote, not a cat in hell's chance over the weekend and every business in the country affected (also a ridiculous idea).

I think the more general question is why anyone here would take seriously your opinions on share investment if you don’t know the closing prices and you’re using Google?

yep, no luck here either

Abundant caution is definitely the right approach on first drill, understanding more about the geology at every level, especially on a potential gold strike, careful preparation and casing, calibrating the machinery and sensor gear, double checking. The stakes are high so messing up the hole before appraisal and getting maximum analytical value from the wire log. It all helps to derisk the next planned drills. 'About a month' for each drill doesn't mean the first drill will be finished in the first month. I'm really happy with DM's approach to DD all the way through so far.

ARB was always going to be a position best held until the end of 2021 or early 2022 ta least, based on BTC futures, HODL, Texas and so on. It was way overbought early in the year on the wave of optimism, it'll likely get back there and higher soon enough but not this week or next.

Regression will really depend on what period of time you're data points cover, are you looking at day closing SP or intra-day movements relative to BTC? If it's daily then to get enough data points you need to go back to early this year and there have been very different phases of convergence/divergence in that period.

I posted this simple relative plot of BTC trends against shares in ARB, RIOT, MARA yesterday. If we agree that miners were closely linked to BTC trend around the first big rise in value from 8 January then yes, they cam back in line recently after periods of overbuying and overselling, and ARB has been tracking above BTC in recent days at a modest margin (personally, I'd expect that margin to widen when BTC takes its next move up
https://imgur.com/LFTi0ni

I think Nexo offers 8% on BTC currently paid daily compound (if you're prepared to lend it to them)