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Might be 4.5% as condition of the shortened term repayment

Why compare what ARB 'currently' has with MARA 'plans' to have? Apples and oranges. Compare both currently or both plans, maybe, but why not compare what ARB has now with what it plans to have (as an indicator of potential growth)? Growth potential is far more important to an investor than absolute size. Obviously you'd need to compare hash not number of machines though.

I think people may be confusing assessments of potential asset value per share, with share price. These are not the same thing. The valuation relates to the oil post production not the SP pre-production. Still, loads of upside potential here and more to come with new deals as they come through.

it's a volatile commodity, that's unlikely to change much. BTC fall this week was not as big as the weekly falls in February, April or May

@K3VMC - exactly so, the MMs will be hoping to accumulate shares below the price they can soon sell them at (hence the wide spreads of recent days)

"I just don't understand why anyone would want to buy at a premium to today's price which they could easily buy and be locked in.."

Yes, I think you missed the difference between IPO and listing price. I suggested the market mood/consensus was pointing towards a public listing price of maybe $2. Remember that IPO buyers get a hefty discount on that before the listing takes place, which is precisely why current buyers are indeed buying at today's prices and not buying at $2/144p, because they hope they are getting a discount approaching that offered to the IPO investors (who will be paying less than $2).

Assuming BTC rises as expected and the MMs walk up the spread, I suspect they will manage to align the market price on LSE/OTC with the listing price on NASDAQ, when that time comes.

I don’t think it’s invisible. ARB is just floating in line with BTC movements in a range just below where buyers think the IPO pricing might take place. It’s a self fulfilling prophecy really. Why would the MMs or anyone else want to buy shares above the listing price, or take an upside risk before they know what it is? Market consensus seems to point towards the price being set at $2 (e.g. 1 ADR = $2 x shares = $10). Whether that’s a leak or just assumption it has the same steadying effect on the MMs and other buyers.

Until buyers are queuing up to pay more it’s not going up. If there’s news that might change.

Like man says, “I like assets that are volatile that have upside convexity”

Why would the SP go down after the IPO? It’s not a new company flotation it’s a small capital raise in order to open the company to a large new market and launch the company in the US tech sector. The whole point of the IPO is to give privileged buyers a significant discount price in exchange for a 180 lock in. Assuming the price is around $2 (144p?) for 10% new equity it’s likely to be oversubscribed. The obvious accumulation of existing shares by the MMs is also not likely to be predicated on a price fall, they will be intending to sell at profit to meet excess demand on NASDAQ. We have two current valuation reports at 240-250p and all the business fundamentals are strong.

Half of NASDAQ IPOs do result in dips in the first two days but not this kind IPO. I’d still be expecting a re-rate, not to full value initially but the SP is so suppressed currently that Id be really surprised if it didn’t float upwards once the brakes are off.

just seems to be tracking BTC at the moment, like it's done for a few weeks now while we wait for news on the listing

ARB has tiny amounts of debt for an early rapid growth company! It's profitability is huge and its assets far outweigh the liability. Worrying about debt in this situation is ludicrous, if it's contributing to further growth.

Accelerating the Texas build would also be a good thing.

Yes, I think that’s fair. The launch also needs to coincide with BTC parabolic phase if possible. I still think the IPO will progress this month, possibly with the actual listing in October (unless the DMG issue requires any minor revision of the F1).

The loan repayment schedule has been brought forward (from end of year to 26 October) not put back. I see that as a positive.

"...has filed for a potential Q3 listing in the US on Nasdaq"

The intention was to launch the IPO in Q3, which is this month

Argo Blockchain Plc - finnCap says Morning Note – 10 September 2021

"Galaxy Digital loan increased to £32m with October maturity Argo has announced that it has increased its loan with Galaxy Digital to a total principal of £32m, with a maturity date of 29 October 2021. Its outstanding £14m loan, which was announced in June 21, will be rolled into the new loan agreement. Argo will continue to use a portion of its Bitcoin holding as collateral for the loan, which will enable it to retain its current Bitcoin holding, while meeting its operating cash flow requirements and providing capital to invest in building its transformational West Texas data centre. As we explain in more depth from p12 of our 29 April report, the economics of the Texas facility will offer Argo an excellent opportunity to capitalise upon the disruption caused to global Bitcoin mining by the Chinese Government and many Chinese provinces effectively banning Bitcoin mining from May. Argo has since began construction of its Texas facility on 22 July, announced strong H1 results on 9 August, published its market-leading climate strategy on 17 August, and has filed for a potential Q3 listing in the US on Nasdaq. We look forward to Argo providing further updates on the potential listing, highlighting further milestones for the build of its Texas facility, and announcing new machine orders, and we expect that the company will continue to benefit from the disruption to global mining with the global network hash rate now at c130 EH/s after averaging 140-180 EH/s in H1 21. As the medium-term impacts of the changes in China become clearer through H2 21, we will closely watch the development of the three key variables for Argo: the hash rate/network mining difficulty, the cost of mining machines, and the Bitcoin price. We explain these variables in more depth from p6 of our 9 August report, and note that our H2 21 forecasts are based upon a BTC price of $40k, with mining difficulty averaging 24n over H2 2021 (mining difficulty is currently c18tn, after 20-25tn in H1 2021)."

It always amazes me that PIs want quick share profits from rapid growth companies while opposing any means to fund that growth.

They seriously need to show they are on the front foot in preparation for the IPO after being outpaced by MARA this week.

@ Wolf - "This is one of the reasons why I think it makes sense to be selling some of the hodl regularly otherwise the alternative is the other two levers being pulled"

This makes no sense at all. Why on earth would your sell BTC today at $46k when it's more likely to be close to it's all time high in a month or two from now. You'd be potentially losing 50% revenue. If you believe BTC is going up, which is presumably why we are all here, then take a fiat loan on the hodl for a month and pay it back on the proceeds (and hedge it with the new raise from NASDAQ). Makes perfect sense.