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There is always a discount for prospectus buyers committed to a 180 day lock in. Also the offer has not been priced yet on NASDAQ.

no trouble topping up earlier today but it seems easier to fill if you can bid/offer a round number of shares (e.g. millions) rather than an odd number of shares for a round amount of cash.

needs to do more than just track the underlying commodity price

yes, if it holds above 0.17 to the close it will be looking good

I think you're confusing two different things.

@Chuz “ a few hundred million dollars more”

You’re assuming ARB are paying for all future Texas facility machines, when they may be hosted for other miners. You’re also assuming we won’t have more millions of dollars without future dilution, which we may also have from increase in value of hodl by H2 2022 (eg invest or loan against hodl during halving price plateau to increase production, then repeat hodl towards next parabolic phase 2024-5).

On the other hand, the market is forward looking and firm business developments tend to get prices in advance, with results and commodity prices impacting more in real time. If BTC price is higher, hash increases, machines are ordered, the SP will go up but at the moment everyone’s waiting for confirmation of the IPO.

put it another way, what is the most you would pay to top up your ARB holding before Christmas? What news would you need before paying this? Is it likely other investors would pay more than you?

From Finncap

"We value Argo at 240p based on scenarios in 2023, when Argo has completed construction of its Texas facility.
- Argo trades on 12-month forward multiples of 7x EV/Sales, 13x EV/EBIT, and 23x P/E, with growth in each metric of 70-90% in the next twelve months.
- Argo’s Bitcoin mining peers are trading on 2-7x EV/Sales, 4-20x EV/EBIT, and 10-59x P/E."

The 240-250p valuations assumed Texas completed and BTC at $40k, so if there is concrete news on Texas and machines to fill it then maybe. Similarly if BTC rises. Current share price is probably an indication of the discount being offered for the IPO and the pricing will be above that, probably at $2 (usually it’s a round number). NASDAQ publishes the IPO pricing before the listing date is announced, often weeks before, but a foreign dual listing may be different to an initial offering.

It was always the stated intention to launch the IPO before end of Q3. It’s clear they hope to price this month, although the actual listing date might be later, hard to say. They key factor is riding the BTC price wave. I imagine they’ll want to hit $2 on the share price and then hit BTC FOMO on the listing date.

discussion about it further down the page. Next step should be a pricing of shares for the ADR (picking the closing price of existing shares on any day in September). Then a listing date. SP may be managed between those dates to align the markets.

If BTC doubles from €50k to $100k, and ARB doubles from 140-145p to 280-290p, then it won’t be £5 but might be $5. Could be a mad FOMO run on top of that, like there was in February but it’s less likely second time around. Might get an ATH before Christmas but I’d be looking to first half results of 2022 and beyond for real gains.

Yes, that’s exactly it and no doubt why the timing was planned when it is, end of Q3, at or just before the next parabolic phase for BTC, which is widely anticipated around October-November. No guarantees but all going to plan so far.

Yes, much less risk with the IPO filed, more security with increased hodl, and early payment of the original loan. Also possible that Galaxy wants the funds for something else and offered a sweetener for ARB’s willingness to settle early.

More posters, more interest… sounds like I need to top up again sooner rather than later! :)

and on a par with what it was about ten days ago? We’re a new halving cycle from February, although at a similar point. In terms of accumulation the current price and trend are still quite consistent with powering an ATH in say October and possibly pulling higher before Christmas. $100k is still only around the mid point of the S2F modelling predictions. It could higher than that this cycle, a lot higher, or not, but personally I’d be optimistic of something close to that at the peak.

and yes, probably aiming to coincide with BTC parabolic phase if they can time it right

I haven't seen any can kicking, the only date ever mentioned was launching before end of Q3, which appears to be the case.

The first loan was arranged at 12.5% per annum, for six months

"In June 2021, we entered into a $20 million term loan agreement with Galaxy Digital LP (the “Galaxy Term Loan”) to finance the continued build out of our new cryptocurrency mining facility in Texas and other general corporate operations. The term of the loan is six months and the borrowing fee on the loan is 12.5% per annum. "

The new loan is 4.5% pa, for less than two months, and includes rescheduling the first loan into this shorter period (maybe they got discount for reduced risk, increased collateral and early repayment).

"In September 2021, we entered into an additional $25 million term loan agreement with Galaxy Digital LLC (the “New Galaxy Term Loan”) to finance the continued build out of our new cryptocurrency mining facility in Texas and other general corporate operations. The outstanding $20 million principal amount of our Galaxy Term Loan, was subsumed into the New Galaxy Term Loan, resulting in total borrowings of $45 million under the New Galaxy Term Loan. The New Galaxy Term Loan will mature on October 29, 2021 and the borrowing fee on the loan is 4.5% per annum."