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Why do you feel we will be disappointed?

We don't know how much will be raised yet, and building Texas and kitting it out with machines are two slightly different things. There's the loan facility to pay off, part of which is against build and part operating capital. PW also talked about machines being available at substantial discount now against on earlier plans due to China. And there's rising BTC hodl, increasing profits, in a debt free company, so I don't think there's any concern about delivery in 2022 at this point. The Texas development was planned in two phases anyway, so maybe that's the confusion. It's a 200MW facility, in two phases I think. But no doubt we'll hear more about it very soon.

planned listing date published on NASDAQ calendar

"now Lady Luck owes me big"

how often does this investment strategy work? :)

yes, if the shares sell, and depending who owns them at the time

Because RIOT would be $27 a share (currently $29) and we would be $2.70 a share (because there are 10 ARB shares in an ADS), consequently we look very cheap!

$27.50, yes

which is why there's been so much movement recently to hedge with ETH as it heads towards proof of stake. London update is due December.

even so... if you don't move your investments out of high carbon stocks before too long you're going to start losing money, PW is rightly aware of this

The underlying issue is a serious one though, which the market will require to be addressed going forward, and why precisely ARB needs to stay on the front foot with the Climate accord, renewables and net carbon negative operations etc. Increasingly, companies that don't tick the boxes won't be included in fund and pensions indexes.

So, the SP was 0.18p in January 2020 when Angel produced their 'non-independent' (i.e. paid for) research note, promoting a buy with target of 0.42p for 2021, on the basis of plans for a 7x increase in production and 'drilling one well per quarter'. Brent crude was $50 at the time of the research, it's now over $70. We're approaching Q4 and waiting drill news. SP is still at 0.18p 20 months later. Lots of promise as always but could benefit from more proof. Hoping for a good RNS.

A lot depends on what BTC does between now and then, and how the SP responds to that. If BTC recovers $50k+ and the SP follows it to 160-170p before launch day then obviously 200p is within the bounds of possibility, but equally it could fall in the first couple of days (which often happens) if there isn't strong buyer demand or if a lot of people choose to sell again on a quick trading profit. In dollar round numbers a launch to $25 would bring the SP around 180p, and a rise to $30 would see about 217p. If it dropped back to the $18.40 prospectus illustration price that would take us back to 133p.

nice and steady, good consolidation at this level as a base for the next phase in the cycle, which I think might come sooner than people expect as investment decisions are made for the coming new month/quarter.

If you want to apply the number of shares after the IPO then a ‘back of a fag packet’ comparison would be to divide £1bn by 456m instead of 381m (e.g. 220p rather than 260p). The FinnCap estimate is in the middle. Then try doubling the price of BTC by Christmas and see where you end up.

Or just read the report.

Why use back of fag packet when there are professional valuations available? Have a look at the method in the FinnCap report and just adjust the assumptions as you prefer. That one adjusts for three main variables. A rough value of say £1bn by end this year doesn’t seem excessive. Probably the biggest assumption is then what forward P/E ratio you want to apply, and of course what future BTC price, and whether you think the IPO has positive or negative effect on the SP. FinnCap valued at 240p per share, pre IPO, with BTC at $40k, assuming Texas is completed, for example.

I can see no benefit to NASDAQ listing during the price deterioration phase and the best timing was always for end of Q3 to realise Texas funding and coincide with anticipation of BTC parabolic phase in Q4.

this is from 18 months ago

that's what it was on the day used for illustration in the prospectus filing, that's not a price prediction for the listing

it's just an indicative of last week's price, the actual listing will be at whatever the market price is then

if you're planning to hold for a while then probably makes sense to average down like this before it goes up too much further, provided you're within your portfolio risk limits.