Member Info for Blubay

The intention was to launch in Q3, which is September, but obviously not a guarantee. First the price has to be set then hopefully listing date to coincide with a wave of BTC optimism/FOMO towards peak price cycle during Q4.

Not sure there's much evidence of anyone shorting ARB at the moment, mostly just lack of interest from buyers pending more concrete news.

It’s not the CEO’s job to do that, the job is to run the company effectively and efficiently. I’d much rather he paid attention to that and stopped pandering to the trivial nonsense PIs pitch at Q&As.

An MM might maintain a wide spread if they are trying to accumulate a pool of shares, either for a known buyer or for a selling opportunity. There is probably some anticipatory accumulation ahead of the confirmed listing of ADRs on NASDAQ. I wouldn't be surprised if the new shares issue is over-subscribed during the IPO, in which case any additional demand on opening of the US public market will need to be met by parcelling up existing shares. In practical effect, the listing may move quite a few shares from London to New York and I guess the MMs are anticipating that by accumulating now at current bid prices and not wanting to sell them (hence the high ask). That's not the same thing as shorting.

I don’t think there’s much evidence that ARB is still being heavily shorted. It seems to be quite fluid recently and more responsive to BTC movements.

close of trading and the spread moves from 135/145 to 139/140 :-)

I think you're over-reacting and over-egging. ARB is up 195% since the beginning of this year and has made equivalent gains to BTC since it's early rise during that first week of the year (both are up around 20% since 8 January). Will it go higher, sure it will, when there is some concrete news to interest new investors and give confidence. That might be next week or a bit longer but it's not going to happen until more PIs rush to buy shares more than are available at today's prices. It's holiday week, volume is low, there isn't much FOMO yet.

The spread is ridiculous though, 135/145

135 is the bid price?

I think they announced that questions arising to the GM will be deferred to the Q&A session afterwards?

What’s the point in posting ‘what you think’ without any reasoning or evidence? It’s just ramping. You might as well say 80p.

At 1 x Standard Error, the predicted margins are currently $48.7k to $149k
At 2 x Standard Error, the margins are $24.3k to $298k

BTC is currently around the lower limit of the first error range and we might expect movement anywhere in that broad area, but on average to see a return at least to the midpoint (currently $85k) or above in the not too distant future...if the predictive model continues to hold... (?)

"So, essentially the analyst is saying "I have no idea" lol"

Not really, the 'analyst' is just looking at the standard error margins of the stock to flow model, which would predict roughly those limits for current value. The margins are certainly wide but if you average out the predictions it's far from having 'no idea'.

You might find this helpful, https://s2f.hamal.nl/s2fcharts.html

"Isn't the consensus that we are being held below a a $700M MCAP for the purposes of the Nasdaq IPO?"

No, the IPO has already started prior to the public listing and the $700m has no bearing since the SEC documents were already filed. It's a UK public holiday week, the London market is largely quiet and ARB investors are probably just waiting for news, to confirm the size of the offering and of course the price, as well as the monthly performance data, machine updates etc.

"Now IM being unclear, i didnt mean IPO i meant application"

The SEC filing conditions to be met at application were satisfied on 30 June. The Initial Public Offering (IPO) has also already happened (i.e. it is happening now) with depositary shares now being offered to those eligible for advance orders on the basis of the prospectus. The ticker is already on NASDAQ and the public listing of shares (ADRs) will then follow shortly.

end of the month today so new funds incoming for many people considering topping up under $50k

"AS a PI whose average id circa 220p, I’m not exactly happy to think the II’s are getting in so cheap!! "

Unfortunately, that's the way the game works. PIs are more likely to average up by buying on FOMO and the more aggressive institutions are more likely to average down by buying on FUD, or getting in early or spreading their buys but it's going to be better for the company overall to achieve a better balance between PIs and IIs now and following the IPO. It's a painful process making the transition from an early growth risk company to a securely established one but necessary. Hopefully you'll see your 220p again before too long.

That's correct. When we increase our market cap this quarter and next (after two consecutive quarters above $700m) we will just file slightly more involved paperwork as a mature rather than an 'emerging' growth company. It doesn't affect the listing or limit the share price etc.

I’d question putting all of an ISA into one share but if so then add daily, weekly or monthly buys to smooth the price point. Then again, if you think it’s going to rise with BTC and Nasdaq then sooner rather than later. But friend needs to do own research

Perhaps because he's the geologist/CEO who spent years analysing the data and gauging the logistical opportunities challenges, whereas you're weighing up chats on a bulletin board?