Member Info for Blubay

Inverse causality, IIs tend to buy undervalued growth companies when the price is low

I think shareholder perceptions here are also confused by the protocol that this isn't really ADV's drill, it's Carnarvon's project in which ADV has a major (50%) interest. The operational news flow comes from CVN. Remember that ADV isn't an oil and gas driller, it's business strategy is "growth through acquisition or farm-in to non-operated interests". In this case the operator is CVN. ADV's role in Buffalo is more like a venture investment company, albeit with high level sector skills of added value to optimising project delivery.

There are two sides of the equation. On the one hand, several of the fundamentals, including the oil price and the prospects still look very favourable to a business growth opportunity here (as they have done for a while). On the other hand, the BOD have a poor record of delivery on promises and targets that has only worsened during 2021, albeit that the pandemic played a part. Over delivery on modest plans always goes down better in the market than under delivery on ambitious ones. Jam tomorrow isn't enough to move the SP. So yes, good potential here but needs a gear change in the leadership.

"Mosman is proposing to conduct a consolidation to reduce the number of Shares on issue in the Company to a number more appropriate, and to better align the Company's trading price to an amount that is broadly comparable to its peer group of companies."

i.e. by which we mean... our peer companies have not managed to reduce the value of their shares by a factor of 100 in three years

I can' think of anything DM said that wasn't backed by data. Everything so far continues to back up his statements. All the evidence points to helium reserves being there. The challenge is whether they can be drilled and flowed commercially. All virgin drill projects are inherently risky and just as likely to snag as to go smoothly on any single attempt. It's not really DM's fault if punters choose to hold risky AIM shares, or if they confuse NAV with share price.

"we just need the bod to deliver.."

Something of a recurrent theme.

"On the assumption they spudded on Xmas or Boxing day... we've prob already drilled 150M+"

Surely confirmation of spud is market sensitive information and requires an RNS?

Covid regs only loosened attendance in person rules not date rules.

According the Companies Act, I think it’s ‘required to hold an AGM within 6 months of its financial year-end’, and with at least 21 days notice.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/46/notes/division/9/15/3

@Chuz - "my whole 'portfolio' is argo and riot"

Wow, so lightening your load here has resulted in an even larger loss (given then RIOT have fallen faster than ARB?

ARB/K has tracked BTC just like all the other main miners have over recent weeks. The only difference was in the period following the IPO pricing debacle, where ARB stayed flat and BTC rose, so it tracked from a lower level than previously. To be honest, it's fared a bit better than the other miners relative to BTC during the big drop.

10m shares in MSMN is only about £8k, it's hardly going to move the market

Are you shorting every share you comment on?

Meanwhile, miners like ARB continue to make real profits day after day after day without interruption.

"It also erodes debt."

This is in fact the biggest effect of inflation, and in practice how most households and governments actually diminish their long term loans over time in real terms. The negative impacts of inflation are experienced short term, the positives long term. The tricky policy decisions are balancing inflation rates versus interest rates (short term) and structuring debt versus repayment levels (long term).

Reported Covid deaths in Africa do considerably underestimate the actual numbers but, agreed, not a very major issue for this type of company in the markets it operates in. The relatively young average age demographics impact positively on both Covid concern and mobile usage. Apart from market jitters, online and mobile businesses generally do well in the pandemic in terms of earnings performance (even if logistics and new growth activities are sometimes slowed down). Low vaccination rates/supply are obviously a concern but African countries have exceptional experience of community based infection monitoring and control (due to history of HIV), and are generally much better at it in practice than Northern countries.

"I’m not sure about buying in the fabled dips NoEasy, but certainly worth buying sub 4.65p now. 5.2 would be my next target"

I see several people posting 5.2p targets recently, which might suggest trading shortly before then :-)

Revenue of mobile phone/data providers are often not impacted by Covid, seems to be the reverse in most countries, more usage, more calls, more online data.

I think it's a great investment, massively growing African consumer market, strong investors, solid cash income, hedged currency and stability risks across at least 14 countries, mobile phone revenue not at risk of Covid (actually tends to increase in lockdowns), then the whole mobile money/crypto growth potential layered on top (e.g. even an outside chance of becoming the next African Paypal if they play it right).

I'm quite content to miss the first 5-10% rise in the SP on the morning the company announces unexpected delivery on any one of its many announced but unfulfilled objectives. In the meantime I'd prefer not to tie up more money in a depreciating asset when I can make a return on it elsewhere. Buying cheap is great...if it's going up. Buying cheap when it's depreciating is not as much help.

Until the Board deliver on any of the many promises and strategic objectives they previously set then it's hard to imagine any serious investor trusting them with more money. Yes, it might pay off as a punt (let's hope) but a lot more evidence would be needed to establish confidence in it as a growth business. In the past it's functioned more as a lifestyle company, using periodic dilution to pay the bills and salaries. I really hope they get lucky but until there's some kind of delivery on corporate plan, or better than expected performance data, I'm not adding more.