Member Info for Blubay

3.95p (-1.25%)

are you buying?

I see Roth Capital have renewed their Buy rating for ARBK with a price target of $32 (242p)
https://www.tipranks.com/news/blurbs/roth-capital-keeps-a-buy-rating-on-argo-blockchain-arbk

Remember, they will need to use out of warranty machines if they’re going to immerse and over clock them at Texas, so I’d expect to see lease machines moved plus additional second hand market orders.

Or the court papers?

Don’t know how many, maybe someone will be able to estimate from the hash rates, or maybe there’s a clue somewhere in the prospectus

Argo will move its existing hash to Helios, that’s part of the plan, ‘captain our own ship’ etc.

Looks an amicable even handed settlement for both sides. I’d put that down as a win, considering it started with Celsius. We get out of the lease, we get all those shiny rigs for Texas, we keep the Bitcoin mined at a fair cost. Good news.

"(there maybe good reason for this - failure to deliver, management, covid, stagnation) but at some point this will change big time if they get it right.."

...still a big if on current form...

"watch this turn BLUE!"

That aged well.

Two weeks for the rig to start moving, a few days to move, three weeks to drill, mid-late January results

The unknown risks of the Nu variant translate as an unknown risk of global lockdowns and therefore an unknown risk of global crash in oil price, which would change the viability estimates of drill projects like ADV's. Probably it will be fine but it's not surprising to see some short term de-risking, and in the absence of any confirmed news on the spud.

"There is a big question mark why this share price is still where it is"

There really isn't, the SP has stagnated because there is a lack of evidence the company is delivering results on its plans. This might change of course but there is also a lack of historical precedent under this Board. New investors come into companies not because they are 'cheap' but because they represent value, based on reasonable assumptions of profit/growth within a timescale. When Boards repeatedly set operational plans and targets and don't meet them that increases buyer scepticism. Estimating how long a return on capital might take is a key consideration, when that becomes increasingly hard to estimate money often flows out.

Having your capital tied up in a share that doesn't move for years is losing money, until the Board deliver on any of their plans it's really not worth coming back in (we're now at the end of November and there has been pretty much nothing to report against the 2021 strategic plan). MSMN has functioned largely as a lifestyle company, which makes enough money to continue paying the salaries from each dilution. There is an opportunity here but I'd need to see more signs of it being realised to buy back in at any kind of scale (I sold most of my share a while back as I had more productive uses for it, but retained a minimal float here). For comparison, the money I took out has doubled in six months while the money I left in has gone down by 25%.

"I don't want to seem disrespectful especially if you are just accurately reporting what you've seen, but argo @£20.50 is just plain bonkers,"

It's not bonkers at all, just depends on the timescale in question. These are future price targets or valuations in different scenarios. There seems to be fair consensus at the moment between analyst notes around 240-270p on completion of Texas in H2 2022. Broker targets have a wider range but that may reflect different timescales. News and increases in BTC price will alter this these scenarios also, the above valuations were based on BTC at $40-50k, for example.

The London market opens with an early morning auction, in which the closing price in NY may be a factor in settling the opening price level, or the spread offered by the market makers but there is no direct link between different markets.

are they off when under tow?

It's all about your own personal investment timescales, goals and risk level, and how much time you have available to worry about the market. Everyone's different, just be confident with your own approach and stick to it, but never be afraid to sell. Buying is the easy part.

ARB didn't drop 8-9%, less than 7% from Wednesday Bitcoin peak, actually dropped less than BTC and less than other miners, good sign

Yes