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Honestly, if you don't understand the reason perhaps you shouldn't be investing in the stock market

Cromwell - "I reckon they will need funds for proper campaign"

and what data are you basing that on exactly? As far as I can make out they will be funded to drill but won't have much scope for error (i.e. they probably have one or two shots at it rather than the four or five you'd want ideally, but then they're on the same drill pad and they've had two shots at that so the CoS increases with knowledge of the geology). Based on the last campaign, they might well be going for a raise between signing the drill contract and spud. Hence the new round of investor presentations and interviews. It's also likely, as last time, that the drilling company might take shares for at least part payment, based on the CoS. All they have to do is surface free flowing gas and the prospect is then transformed. At that point they would either sell out to a major or transform the company into a producer with a major raise for that purpose.

yes, good news implied

Chaebol - a brief reminder that you're shorting BTC wouldn't go amiss for new readers when contextualising these kinds of posts ;-)

On chain data clearly shows that BTC adoption remains globally significant in 2022, after peaking in the bull market wave of 2021. It remains well above the pre-bull market of 2019 (i.e. it remains much higher compared to similar cycles). Estimates of fair value remain above $40k. Adoption is growing mainly in emerging markets, but also in the UK and the US.

I tend to agree, we're sitting exactly at the pre-drill price (Jan-Feb 2021) which seems to provide an approximate floor level, no guarantees of course and yes any sharp profits will be sold into, as will 'news'

On past cycles that's about right, lift off maybe 150 days from halving, or thereabouts, but there ought to be a significant correction to cycle norms from current lows before then if general markets start to recover. For example, in the previous cycle we saw a threefold recovery (from under $4k to over $12k) at this point in the cycle, a year before the bull market (from $5-60+k)

Jones - "Got until next Monday to complete with this particular partner or it won’t proceed so should expect a further update this week as shareholders need to vote?"

That's not correct, they have months to complete. Next week is the exclusivity period date, which they can extend

Triplestar - changed your tune from yesterday!

"I dont know why you all think that when the RNS lands its going to be great - it could very well be very bad news. Based on experience with HE1 on the last two years, there has nothing great which leads up to todays 5p share price. In fact I am kinda dreading the next RNS considering the time lag between the last one plus the director talk at the time from Minch saying there will be more regular news flow moving forward. Yet another statement from CEO that has not come true.."

PT - "Are you are happy they wasted all that time and cash on that other Rig?"

They didn't. This rig was already lined up as the backup all along, as explained in previous RNS, and they didn't pay for the audit on the Predator. The operational time line on this rig would not have been any different as it was in use. No time lost, no significant money lost.

$21k is still the consensus view for year end at the moment, might change of course, could be half that

Remember that the debt is paid off, cash from sales of machines etc, plus the new BTC mined each month, minus the cost of continued operations. They probably have 3-6 months, depending on price of BTC

I had a feeling the Intel chip deal was less than that, as ePic were going to build the machines to put them in.

It's a game of chicken really as to which miners capitulate first. In theory that makes it easier for those remaining in the short term, either through reduced hash or larger market share for those still making a profit margin. But I agree that hash is only going in one direction in the medium term. The risk in miner capitulation theory is that any large forced sell offs of hodl bring the market price down even further and reduce profitability further (the so called 'death spiral' for mining).

They only have one shot at a drill campaign on the remaining finance, so getting it right is more important than timing. They can drill with that rig in Jan/Feb if it's ready.

What are you basing these numbers on, $19k and 6 weeks?

Of course the long term BTC assumption is positive, I don't think anyone would be here otherwise, but you said "Bitcoin will do circa $30k this month", which I can't see in any chart projections. Just wondered why, as that would profoundly change the outlook for Argo's business viability and the SP. If you have reason to believe it's going to $30k in the next four weeks then a punt here could be massive.

The odds are not yet in favour of Argo still being in business for the next cycle, fingers crossed there will be some positive news soon of finance or a favourable takeover deal but we should be realistic about the balance of probabilities.

"What’s the market data you have? Or are you one of the $10-$13 brigade caught out?"

There's no crystal ball for crypto and betting on it is a losers' game, but you can get a good sense of the balance of market expectations just by looking at the options and futures markets, which really don't suggest any expectation of that kind of rise in the short to medium term. Happy to be proved wrong but I see no data signs yet of reaching $25k this year, or close to it.

I agree

I agree that BTC looks robust at these levels. I don't see much sign of it rising significantly but even a run above $21k would have a fairly dramatic optimism effect on the SP I think

Really, do you mind sharing the market data on which you're basing that prediction?