Member Info for Blubay

Baobab-1 was scheduled for the rig move and drilling immediately after completion of Mukuyu-1, which was planned to end about now, but was side tracked and now seems to have been 'suspended for future testing'. Not entirely sure if that means they are done and moving it now.

Invictus - HE1 holders may find this story familiar...?

"Invictus Energy (IVZ) will sidetrack its Mukuyu-1 well in Zimbabwe’s Cabora Bassa Basin after encountering “deterioration” in borehole conditions while completing wireline logging.

The Mukuyu-1 well reached a total depth of 3618 metres earlier this month, encountering elevated gas shows in multiple zones, and evidence of hydrocarbon charge validated the presence of a conventional working hydrocarbon system within the Cabora Bassa Basin.

Invictus aimed to complete a wireline logging program and deepen the well to test the deeper potential of the remaining Upper Angwa and Lower Angwa formations.

The company has now deepened the Mukuyu-1 well to a measured depth of 3923 metres, where it continued to encounter reservoir units with elevated gas shows and fluorescence.

However, the wireline logging tools were unable to pass below a depth of around 3030 metres measured depth, which is where the primary fluid sampling targets are located. IVZ said this was due to deteriorating borehole conditions over the last few days while waiting for the wireline formation testing tool to arrive.

“Current borehole conditions make logging the existing hole section extremely risky with an
increased likelihood of losing tools and not meeting the objectives of the well,” Managing Director Scott Macmillan said.

As a result, Invictus has decided to sidetrack the Mukuyu-1 well to complete its evaluation and obtain a fluid sample.

Sidetracking is where a secondary wellbore is drilled away from the original wellbore to bypass an unusable section of the well or explore a proximal geological feature.

Overall, Invictus said the results so far have been “extremely encouraging” and it plans to suspend the sidetrack well for future testing.

Company shares fell 14.29 per cent to trade at 27 cents at 11.19 am AEDT."

https://themarketherald.com.au/invictus-energy-asxivz-deepens-mukuyu-1-well-faces-deteriorating-borehole-conditions-2022-11-24/

sorry, yes Q3 will look bad and likely crush any remaining market sentiment (unless that's priced in by now). You'd imagine they're either waiting on imminent confirmation of a good news story to front run the Q3 release, or announcement of an exit strategy.

Chaebol = "Delayed quarterly’s very often spell doom."

last month's update published 8 November, today is 7 December, what delay?

Price of electricity in Texas has been coming down significantly since end of summer, not up

Skippy - "I wonder if us PI's might get the chance to participate in a placing this time?"

I suspect a managed subscription is more likely, PIs can still buy and sell shares anytime they like.

sorry, early morning typo, net asset position, i.e. no debt is still somewhat ahead of many similar ventures at this point in the game. We all know they're either going to raise or enter a joint venture with another party. I think we've all assumed that would be between signing drill contract and spud, or during drilling on early gas shows prior to discovery. I don't think the cash position alters that assumption. It might come sooner but obviously they'll try to maximise the market position. The prospect remains what it is, a risk venture for a significant potential reward.

HE1 is not in the business of selling helium, it's a prospecting company. Becoming a producer would be a completely different business model. It's more likely they would sell the discovery to a major producer and seek to repeat at new prospects.

As happened last time, the drilling contract will probably be a mix of cash and share options. So the first placement will probably be issue of shares to the rig provider rather than a capital raise from markets. A key factor in that will be persuading the other party that the CoS is high, the risks mitigated, and market sentiment optimistic. Assuming the SP rises into the spud then the rig provider sells a proportion of their share at (e.g. 100%) profit to cover their cost and retains a share interest if they believe in the CoS.

cash balance is as expected, in the region of $10m, no need for scare mongering

How do you know it was a sell? Don't pay any attention to the colours on the LSE ticker, they only show if the trade price was above or below the mid price. It's more likely to be a buy, although filled at 8.275 in between small trades from 8.2 to 8.4

Such as the party who paid £93k for 1.5m shares at 6p after hours on Friday?

high demand again this morning, MMs filling for another large one. Done half of the 10 day average trade volume in the first session this morning

Chaebol "I think this needs to come back"

do you read the big buys above trading day price as shorts closing or as new interest?

...but can't see them raising before signing a drill contract, and not likely not until the rig is on site or after spud. It's all about maximising share price demand optimism at the point of the placing.

yep, definitely lining up for a possible raise but expansion of prospects beyond Rukwa is also interesting. HE1 is a prospecting company so they may be thinking to capitalise on a discovery at Tai, sell out to a major producer and aim to rinse and repeat at Balangida, fully funded.

I presume Cheapshareboy’s short position backfired

Dai, that information is clearly market sensitive and therefore needs to be released to the market by the proper channels

Any virgin drilling project floated on the AIM market is a high risk, you need to be prepared to lose your stake. This particular project has high reward if it works. The company has done a lot (really a lot) of preparation and diligence on the risks and mitigation at every stage. People saying "don't trust DM" are talking nonsense. It was always a high risk going for an unknown site with a low cost drill campaign, but it made good sense for a small company. They got very close to claiming a discovery, ran into very common technical problems, and made good decisions to get out with enough money to try again. Chance of success on any one drill is maybe one in four or five, and this was always made clear with a campaign for that many attempts. Two down, one or two to go. No guarantees.

Honestly, if you don't understand the reason perhaps you shouldn't be investing in the stock market