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Don't think it's either, just a month of no news and the usual AIM price drift. SP has held up quite well overall. Hopefully the project acquisition is confirmed this week and the positive news starts to flow with some imminent spud dates for drilling.

AIM index hasn’t moved so far this morning, marginally green. Are you expecting a sell off today or closer to the wire?

I don’t think axing BPR would be worth much to IHT recovery. Holding any AIM share for more than two years is already inherently risky, but if you’re going to sell them every time there’s a news risk then you’d have to reset your clock each time and would be unlikely to qualify for it. On balance, I think the chance of a Tuesday morning RNS would outweigh the risk of holding AIM shares another day. No guarantees of course but there would be some incentive to arrive into tomorrow’s US helium summit with a US helium acquisition deal sealed.

Like everyone else, I have no idea what the capex would be but I’m guessing it will be one side or the other of $100m and therefore roughly within those ballpark parameters (they won’t be getting market price from an off taker, and any bank or JV finance is likely to be spread over a longer period). You still haven’t said how much gas you expect them to produce from 20-30 wells to fill your assumption of multiple daily tankers on the roads?

That’s just what’s expected isn’t it? Either an ML or SML, depending on scale of the investment, followed by establishing an SPV company in which the government takes a 16% stake, them’s the rules.

I don’t live online Cat and it’s the weekend, but if you’re worried about your maths then one tanker of liquified helium per day, after gas losses, would be worth a great deal. The Itumbula EWT estimated an optimised maximum of 6,000 cubic feet helium a day with artificial lift, from fluid (unlike the free gas in Colorado). However, suppose you could improve on that and engineer 25 wells to produce 40,000 cubic feet each (let’s be optimistic) that could be up to a million cubic feet per day, or 11,000 gallons liquified, which equals one 46,000 litre ISO tanker per day. Worth best part of $1m a day to market, and covering the entire project capex investment within the first year of full production. Maybe 3.5 billion cubic feet within a ten year mining licence period. That seems quite a lot. I may be mistaken. How much were you expecting?

No ASX announcement yet from BNL on Monday morning in Australia , so looks unlikely we’ll get a Monday RNS from HE1.

Cat - have you any idea what this market value of one liquified helium tanker a day is?

The Predator rig is broken down to transport as it exceeds Tanzania’s highway weight limit when assembled. But yes, there’s been no issue for multiple companies getting their trucks in and out, civil engineering, rig, testing laboratories, drill pipes, fluid tanks, crew accommodation, fencing, etc etc. Just look at the drill site photos. It’s likely to be a maximum of one gas tanker a day for an off taker, and that’s collecting from the processing plant not the drill pads. Similar to the Galactica project the plant will presumably be sited as close to existing roadway as they can (although that’ll be a trade off with the gathering pipelines and energy supply etc).

That’s fine but HEX is miles behind HE1 in terms of moving from exploration to production. Seems to be far more risk there in terms of capital raising and drilling (collapsing shale wells etc). Assuming the acquisition goes through this week then HE1 has a near term revenue generating gas project with relatively easy access to US helium infrastructure (it’s on remote private ranch land but decent capacity for service tracks to each pad). The issue of roads in Rukwa is being overplayed here. The licence areas are remote but close to villages and there are dirt roads. It’s maybe three hours to the main trans highway but all their kit, including the drill rig, drilling fluids, modular laboratories, has come in and out of Tai and Itumbula pads by road. They levelled their own service road from Tai to Itumbula. It’s flat land, the distances aren’t great. The bigger engineering challenge is access to power to run a processing plant or how far they’d have to run the gathering pipelines I think.

Why would it be approved next week when it’s expected in around three months? Absolutely no evidence other than a feeling? Focus on Colorado, that’s where the week’s news is coming from

Bonniedog - “It makes perfect sense”

How does it make sense? It’s less than 6 weeks since the company submitted an application with the stated expectation that it would take around three months for approval.

Why? On what basis? It makes no sense unless you have some kind of inside information not available to the company.

I don’t think that’s very likely as the normal sequence of events would be award of a ML, followed by formation of an SPV with government participation, then negotiation of outstanding finance

Just the usual false and misleading information posted under guise of humour. Apparently the ML has been coming ‘any day’ now since it was submitted, or after ‘three weeks’, or ‘6-8 weeks’, or ‘fast tracked’, despite the CEO saying she expected it to be after three months. Now it’s ’sooner than many think’, but it will more than likely be when most people think it will be, around three months or so from application.

I think it will need concrete milestones rather than speculation to move the SP short term, conclusion of the acquisition deal, drill permits, rig mobilisation, spud dates. But that should all come soon enough.

They’re not voting for a new cash raise. The vote just approves the cash raise already completed. Good news though as that’s their side of the near term project deal which we need.

Yes, I think it’s a good point and would make sense to be considered in the diligence although it’s not mentioned as a specific condition (whereas the ECMC approval was). I don’t know if they would waive it on assumption or wait for the final day of deadline.

It’s a well worn tactic on popular LSE boards to bomb any kind of evidence based discussion and try to restrict the board to sentiment based trading rhetorics (in either direction).

Hemo - unfortunately we're none the wiser about"Drilling on the Galactica Project expected to start Q4 2024, subject to Form 2 (drilling permit) approval."

You're conflating a condition to start drilling with a condition of concluding the acquisition deal. The speculation is whether the former is a condition of the latter, which we don't know and the RNS does not say. It just says the acquisition "conditional on a number of conditions being satisfied or waived (if capable of waiver) on or before 31 October 2024, including but not limited to: (i) the parties agreeing and executing definitive agreements ...", and ECMC approval of the development plan, which they have.

The timing question is just about due diligence and whether HE1 would conclude a deal on assumption of permits being granted now or whether they'd wait for the confirmation.