Member Info for Blubay

Amazing, so many lucky buyers here putting tens of thousands of pounds on a risky penny share and creating first time accounts to join the chat. You were lucky to get all that research done in time to clear your £36k buy during the minute or so it dipped to 0.89p. Interesting times.

Next stage is likely to be conclusion of the acquisition deal (by the end of the month) and more details about the development programme for Galactica, spud dates etc. When did you buy your shares?

"You are reading that right, 800,000 versus 6,000."

You didn't read it right because you missed the paragraph where is says "flow rate multiplied by helium concentration"

ChatGPT seems to have come up with an unnecessarily sceptical case there, is that what it was prompted to consider?

They're mainly a sustainability advisory business on investment opportunities, project development and corporate strategies. Sawford is CEO and a partner in the private equity side of business, he's been on the board of at least three environmental businesses in the past. The two tagged colleagues are backgrounded in energy transition and net zero.

Cat - figures are from the company and I've given you the page references and video time stamps. Where on earth does 'carp' come into it? If you have better inside knowledge just give us your estimates of the likely capex/opex for the 20-30 wells, gathering pipelines and the processing plant, and give us the links to your evidence of costings? It would be a lot simpler than this constant toxic and abusive behaviour.

I haven't sold anything and I don't have any concerns. I don't understand why people can't just engage with a sensible discussion instead of fantasising about conspiracy theories and mind games. It is what it is, we've always expected the capex to be in that ballpark, it's not a surprise, it's not a problem. If the company says the modelling demonstrates positive economics for the project at that scale then that's entirely in line with expectation, what's the problem?

I guess we can say the ballpark capex for a ten year development programme will be somewhere north of $50m and could be either north or south of $100m (impossible to say without some ballpark cost per well, any ideas?). Drilling 20-30 wells to basement in rural TZ isn't the same cost basis as 10-15 shallow vertical drills with a water rig in Colorado (budget $450k per well), but then they do own their own rig in TZ.

It's just impossible to know without seeing the modelling. The company has said in an RNS that the model shows positive economics for the company at 20-30 wells with artificial lift, so that's about all we have to go on at the moment.

We do know the parameters for the original development concept for Tai (but with a massive pinch of salt here because that's 2023, before drilling or test results from Itumbula, and didn't seem to factor gas in solution). That was for 6 wells, gathering pipelines and a modular skid mounted purification and liquefaction plant (similar scale to Colorado first phase)

• Expected production capacity of 1.05 mmcf/day helium

• Sufficient to fill one 11,000 Gal (46,000 L) ISO container of liquid helium per day

CAPEX

• Helium plant US$ 38 MM

• Production wells and gathering US$ 48 MM (6 wells)

OPEX

• US$ 1 MM / year

See: slide 25, https://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/230830_Helium-One_Marketing-Roadshow_Sept23_FINAL_.pdf

In 2024, but before the EWT at Itumbula, we know the medium term development concept was still for modular containerised production facilities design built for tube trailer loading (similar concept, but including water removal). No costings given.

See slide 13, https://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/240611_HE1_Marketing-Presentation_for-website.pdf

We also know that their in-house costings for the design were 'in the region of $50m" and that the cost/complexity of processing with water/gas extraction is "considerably simpler and less costly" than they were expecting (according to the CFO's comment in the last presentation). We also know they now have their own rig, and that considerably reduces the drilling cost and lead time per well (again we don't know the estimated cost per well to compare it with Colorado).

https://youtu.be/E63iORJMCEE?feature=shared&t=2809

We also don't know if there is a break even point for generating cash surplus from a small number of wells to finance build out of remaining wells (in Colorado, the early wells will co-finance the later ones). So, it's really all complete guesswork at this stage. No way of knowing until they present something.

Just the usual HEX vs HE1 trading tuf of war desperately trying to herd buyers one way or the other

I don’t think you need to look much further than HE1’s board membership to find expertise and experience in commercialising gas production in East Africa. When the board was completely restructured to bring in the former board of Orca that was clearly the emphasis, moving from explorer to producer.

A total of 31 trades the whole day, the largest of which was £885 and people think there's something secretive going on, really?

It's not "a very similar rig" to HE1's Predator Hemo. It's a shallow target water well rig, it will be more similar to what BNL will be using in Colorado, cheap and cheerful for what they plan to do.

I don't think it indicates anything significant in that timescale. No point dismantling the rig and terminating the core maintenance staff between October and early 2025. They'll want to move fairly quickly once they have the ML but they'll have to establish an SPV and negotiate terms of finance before they can actually drill anything, so I imagine it'll remain hot for the duration. It's probably more cost effective overall and ensures a quick start up when needed.

If you're holding 7 million shares you're not expecting the price to crash

Another new account for the best known 7 million share investor

Placing was clearly ruled out as a preferred route in the last investor presentation by the CEO and CFO. They clearly also explained the project financing routes they would be pursuing in preference, after receiving a ML. Obviously no company can rule out placements altogether as it would be market suicide with a limited cash runway.

12 new discussion threads you've started since 7am, is this some kind of record attempt?

'Proof of Financial Capability' in this context isn't evidenced by proof of financing in place for the proposed project lifetime, it's evidenced as you illustrate by the company's current solvency and it's past track record of raising investment funds for mining (which HE1 have lots of evidence of as a London listed company with multiple capital raises). That's all they need to show for the ML.

I think that's an overly negative interpretation. I'm very happy to be invested in HE1 at the current market valuation, no problem at all. The company has been explicit that they consider progress on the Rukwa project to meet their milestones for developing future commerciality, and they've indicated the scale of operation needed to achieve that. The omission of any updated reserve estimates is surprising for any exploration company so the market has to assume the estimates are either reduced (compared the the 2021 seismic) or uncertain (due to the complexity of modelling the unique geological basement system). If they are being prudent on the latter then I can see why they wouldn't announce raised estimates without a CPR as it could easily backfire if their novel modelling methodology was then rejected against industry standards. Hypothetically, it might be prudent to adopt a traditional modelling for the Karoo layer trapped reserves, with a low estimate, for the purposes of the ML application and then add in a later validation of increased estimates for the novel basement system later. Just a thought.