Member Info for BlahBlahDoh

Interesting post Seaking. You don't like the split then? Is that because you think the two parts are stronger together, or some other reason? What do you mean by an "Asia bounce", and why do you think it is going to happen? China grew fast mainly because it was catching up from decades of communist mismanagement of the economy. Surely that has come to a natural end through wage rises and competition? Anyway, Pru surely don't really need a bounce, they just need access to the huge existing Chinese market with it's unsatisfied demand.

Trump is clumsy, ignorant and dishonest, but how much has he held Pru back - they don't pay any of his tariffs nor does he restrict their trade, they are doing just fine in the USA. At least Trump's power has the mandate of voters, and is subject to term limits. Arguably it is the Chinese who are holding Pru back - in China they are not allowed to operate like a normal business, everything has to be done with Chinese business freeloaders around their necks. No Chinese firm is restricted like that when they sell in the UK. Chinese customers are affected randomly by completely unaccountable communist currency manipulations and stock market interference - it is so restrictive and unreliable that Chinese mainlanders cross into Hong Kong to buy Pru products there instead. Chinese meddling in Hong Kong caused the protests there too, making business more difficult for the Pru.

So yes, Trump's illegal trade wars depress stock markets generally, and Tory Brexit chaos depresses the whole UK stock market, but it is "Mr Eleven", dictator Xi's policies that specifically affect the Pru share price the most, imo.

https://www.lse.co.uk/media/exclusive-life-sciences-investor-briefing-destiny-pharma-dest-shield-stx-and-open-orphan-orph.html

No nonsense from Cathal Friel in this one: take it or leave it! He's an entertaining character, but also stands up well under questioning. He's offering quite a curious and interesting mixture of interconnected ways of generating revenue and profit: turning around the fairly boring undervalued existing business, bolting on acquisitions to bring the company size to a critical bulk where it has a meaningful presence in the marketplace, disrupting an inefficient part of the sleepy pharma industry using fairly standard digital platforms, jump starting research into a plethora of neglected conditions by liberating access to dormant data, and finding a quick exit after releasing all this value. All this backed by three people with wide knowledge of the subjects, recent business success in related areas and heavily personally invested. It might just work.

The share price spent more or less the whole of last month declining, and the whole of this month so far, rising. Neat bounce!

Those mainland Chinese buyers who have been scared off by the protests in Hong Kong, are potentially just delayed sales rather than lost ones, since they don't have comparable alternative investments on the mainland. Pru Hong Kong staff have been brave and innovative in setting up mobile processing centres, I hope they are safe and successful.

Hong Kong's effect on the share price, according to Bloomburg:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/hong-kong-unrest-rocks-insurance-industry-as-chinese-buyers-balk-1.1315462

Yes, moody highlighted M&Gs strong capitalisation and product design skills, but perhaps the technology angle is more applicable in growth areas, i.e. Pru Asia, because Asian customers seem to be much more mobile-centric than European ones, although this may change over time. Assurance IQ have a relatively small team, but they appear to be harnessing data science highly effectively to make marketing more efficient and pleasant by providing top financial experts in a timely and appropriate manner to customers, thereby providing tailored products and services in conjunction with specialist software tools. Pru Asia are developing their own tools, but they are relatively new and seem less advanced. Online services seem to gravitate to one dominant player in other industries, so it will be interesting to see what happens, but Pru probably need to be careful and watchful in this arena.

From some apparently knowledgeable comments here, it seems like it's the product which has been oversold. The product needs to be convincing. It doesn't need to actually be good of course, just sellable. The SP has been under £10 for a month now. The last fundraising seems to have knocked the lights out, with the sobering realisation that this is a high maintenance company with no profitability in sight. What might bring the overoptimistic bulls back into this China shop, change the lightbulbs, and boost the price back up to frothy unrealistic levels? Interest rate cuts, hype for the new release, marketing in India? I dunno, ask Phil Yaboots.

"It started as conversations between two friends about how to improve the insurance and financial services industries... Less than four years later, Assurance IQ announced it will be acquired by Prudential Financial for a whopping $2.35 billion"

This is NOT a UK Prudential story, but it's a wakeup call about of the importance of technology which we probably need to catch up with? In China virtually all business is done by smartphone, for example.
https://www.geekwire.com/2019/stealthy-insurance-tech-startup-bootstrapped-way-2-35b-acquisition-less-4-years/

p.s. apologies for duplicate previous post: it's glitch day!

Yes just an LSE glitch I think Bruce. It opened at about 15.135, dropped back to around last nights closing price, then bobbed back above £15.

Societe Generale have issued a sell note this morning with a target price of £13 (down from 13.50). No idea what their reasoning was, but possibly based around their expectation of a looming US interest rate cut? Not sure how much notice to take - after all, they're a bank, and ... French. They seem to be doubling down on a failed prediction, n'est pas?

Yes just an LSE glitch I think Bruce. It opened at about 15.135, dropped back to around last nights closing price, then bobbed back above £15.

Societe Generale have issued a sell note this morning with a target price of £13 (down from 13.50). No idea what their reasoning was, but possibly based around their expectation of a looming US interest rate cut? Not sure how much notice to take - after all, they're a bank, and ... French. They seem to be doubling down on a failed prediction, n'est pas?

I think speculation on the Aviva board was based around this undated, probably very old, article: https://www.covermagazine.co.uk/cover/news/2145621/rumours-rife-aviva-pru-merger
The logic here seemed to be that a larger group would wield more financial strength and therefore be able to grow quicker? The Aviva board discussions seem completely unaware that the Pru are demerging instead, and Aviva too are attempting to divest rather than merge. Their Asian assets are up for sale, valued at £1.65 billion plus. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-aviva-m-a-asia/insurer-aviva-looking-to-sell-asia-business-sources-idUKKCN1UR4QS

Thanks GA. You've forced me to Google and it seems that Oneplus have a relationship with Samsung, so I guess their TV screen panels probably come from there, same as their competitors Xiaomi. Since Oneplus are launching their TVs in India this month, we probably would have already heard if Wah Hong were supplying them. The display story seems to have ended for Nanoco, with Samsung winning.

Welcome BJ, good entry point, imo, but expect turbulence!

Over on the Aviva board they are fantasising about a merger with the Pru. They don't seem aware that the Pru are doing the exact opposite, although maybe an M&G/Aviva takeover has some logic? Aviva look cheap and M&G will have a new business model and new management.

Meanwhile Helena Kingsley-Tomkins muses about M&Gs prospects - solid, balanced, and dividend friendly?:
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/PRU/moodys-expects-prudentials-demerged-m-and-g-to-gain-from-prufunds-growth-hr9iq8pxa6tpbi2.html

Cathal Friel makes a good case - short term sorting out profit/revenue imbalance in the former Venn business, and growing the business by providing a platform, medium term coalescing stakeholders from across the orphan drug community, and long term building a lucrative genomic database. "Does that make sense?" Yes it does, a satisfying mix of opportunities based around creating a self-sustaining ecosystem. The trick is in the execution. Likely to be a good share for newsflow, if nothing else.

You seem to be guessing the outcome of old speculation which Ping An confuted:
https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/asia/news/breaking-news/ping-an-rules-out-major-overseas-acquisitions-115612.aspx

Absent reason, we can only acknowledge your hunch, and wait to see for whom the bell tolls.

Don't be rude about Mr Breadbin, you might end up as toast.

Good point. Don't know, but Mike Wells has previously said there will be a circular, a prospectus, and a shareholder vote, so I EXPECT all that is going to take at least 2 weeks? The circular and prospectus could come together, but there will have to be some delay for people to read them before the vote. When asked how they will be valued, MW said it wouldn't all happen at once, because the shares are listed in several places in different denominations, but I think he said the London listings would be first.

What tech trend are you referring to - making high end TVs cheaper? Looks like ARM are left, right and centre of that. The single mention of QDs in the article disparages them: " what we really want to see in a OnePlus TV is a smooth user experience, which is worth more than all the quantum dots in the world." Pardon my ignorance, but I don't understand your headline, the relevance of the article to Nanoco, or why ME is involved. Please explain.

That story has been dormant for over a year, but I suppose you could argue that Ping An are waiting for the demerger before pouncing, and swivelled-eyed conspiracy theorists might point, manically, to Pru's recent tech moves as evidence of a defence strategy.

From Aug 2018:
"An acquisition is a good strategy for Ping An to expand into other regions” as it seeks to mitigate the risk of concentrating on its home market, said Lu Yunting, a Shanghai-based analyst at Zhongtai Securities Co. “Its fintech is for sure a lot stronger than global insurers’ and its hardware and software are both very competitive.”

Ping An hasn’t approached Prudential about a deal, a person with knowledge of the matter said Wednesday, and Prudential Chief Executive Officer Mike Wells said the same day that the Asian operations aren’t for sale."

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2018/08/13/497784.htm

Rather than just telling us the date (which he surely must know?) Mike Wells teasingly said he "expects" the split to take place in the fourth quarter of 2019, so that's sometime within the next 117 days.

I propose that, for fun, the closest "expectator" becomes Monarch of the Board for a week, with all the prestige, privileges and VIP treatment that entails (i.e. none whatsoever). I "expect" December 13th, when do you expect?

"Prudential is beginning to change its vision for the future, believing that insurers (including themselves) will find success and make a profit only when their customers are healthier." ..."In order to understand what to do with lots of data, Prudential needs to build its own repository that it can experiment with" ... "To that end, it launched a new mobile app Pulse by Prudential "

"the actuarial profession will be totally revamped one day. In the future, it’ll be an ecosystem driven model and everyone will need to cooperate – universities, pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, clinics, and even gymnasiums,”
Prudential Group Chief Digital Officer Al-Noor Ramji

https://techwireasia.com/2019/08/prudential-when-customers-are-healthier-insurers-will-be-wealthier/