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This article reiterates the point Gavin (Fatprofits) made a few days ago:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914670/mg-suffers-from-popularity-of-passive-funds-914670.html
But where are these passive funds going to invest their money? In a FTSE100 company paying huge dividends, perhaps?

Fast forward 6 months to the interims: we could see COVID-19 in abeyance, Trump on the way out, and the M&G SP steadily climbing back to where it was just three weeks ago - i.e. fully 50% higher than today. Wild fantasy?

"JPMorgan analysts described the results as “mixed”, but retained their overweight rating on the stock."
Oh, merely mixed JP? Not catastrophic, as the SP might suggest ( :

https://www.reuters.com/article/mg-results/update-2-coronavirus-brings-uncertainty-for-insurer-asset-manager-mg-idUSL8N2B31KA?rpc=401&

I wonder if a further market slump should be expected as even Trump supporters start noticing that COVID-19 is not a Democrat hoax and not under control, finally catching up with reality. The markets may even start factoring in a Bernie threat if he can regain momentum as a result of the mismanaged US health crisis.

What were you expecting? Looks absolutely solid to me, everything more or less as expected and guided. In todays environment, boring competence is good news. If you bought now and held, you'd get almost 9% of your capital back on 29th May, and the following years dividends should amount to over 10% on today's price. Those are the sort of numbers you'd expect from an investment of much lower quality and higher risk. Don't know where on earth pension funds or income investors can go to get a better return, or a better risk/reward ratio.

Crash bang wallop, it's the M&G show:
https://www.investis-live.com/mandg-plc/5e304f4cf079ed0b0099e78e/bida

Coronavirus contagion and mortality figures are likely to get worse for a couple of months, and this was entirely predictable from what happened in China, so the markets shouldn't be so surprised and may as well get used to it. There may yet be a second wave in China, but WHO stats suggest the inflection point was passed a few days ago and the virus is apparently subsiding there, just as it takes off elsewhere.

In a years time, are profits going to be 30-40% down as current share prices suggest? Surely not for companies like Prudential, where longevity is built into the products. That doesn't mean we've seen the low yet though, the hysteria is as evident on the stock markets as it is in the supermarkets. Even companies which benefit from COVID-19 are down today!

So, most of the guesses for the low have already been blown through. The real question for investors now is not so much the price but WHEN will it occur, because that will likely be the best buying opportunity for years. Good luck with timing that!

"in the first nine months of 2003, when Sars spread, “Prudential reported a 17% rise in new business sales in local currency”.

Analysts will be on tenterhooks to see how much Prudential learned from the Sars outbreak, or if coronavirus will leave its international business reeling."
https://www.lbcnews.co.uk/business/bab8de2d90024ff285384f907f037ec3/

Because Nano continue to tell us virtually nothing about what, if anything, the business is actually doing, we probably place too much emphasis on the doings of RG. It is clear he had no special info, or at least nothing accurate, and his interpretation of the available data is no better than ours! Having said that, his still large holding is now a potential worry, because further sales must be at least a possibility, if he has turned really sour a complete withdrawal is not inconceivable, and in a worse case scenario even followed by shorting! Most likely he'll just return to his former position.

One of the two people swamping the board with disinformation, exaggeration and repetition seems to have suddenly moved on with neither apologies nor a goodbye? Missing you already.

Not just selling, he's sold virtually everything he bought this year - about £900K. Despite misinformation posts that he has been buying for a while at 21p, that only happened last Thursday and Friday - his average price has been much lower. it looks like he was expecting something from the FSP, but got it wrong, and is cutting his losses. He still retains a large holding - 13%.

Interesting stats andinio, and the WHO mortality rate based on ALL data was close to that, at 3.4% yesterday. However, experts around the world unanimously agree that the figures are compromised by at least two factors. One is that identified infected people may still yet die, as you point out, but the other one is that nobody really knows how many have been infected, and it is certain that the number is higher than has been reported. On the Diamond Princess there were 706 infections and 6 deaths, giving a rate of less than 1%, but you seem to get different results in different places - the official rate in China is higher than anywhere else, for example. So we perhaps shouldn't place too much emphasis on the mortality rate except to acknowledge that it is almost certainly much higher than that for flu, which is close to 0.1%

"a little and lesser win possibly a few times a year is very acceptable to me."
That's good as long as you win more than you lose James, but surely it involves constant monitoring of price movements, and a quasi-mystical ability to time the market? I admire the bravery and wish you luck, and certainly the volatility since the split has given you plenty of opportunities for little wins (or losses).

The guessing game is "Just for a bit of fun ONLY." Difficult to see how fatprofits could have made that any clearer, and our cheeky responses are obviously not investment advice! Why not have a go yourself, don't you like fun? The arbitrary three month limit takes us to the end of May, and if anyone wants to play, how about guessing the high too? If so, no cheating - has to be before the results come out next week! Despite my gothic gloom over the likely impact of COVID-19 I don't expect any stability or consistency from the market, so I'll go for 1411p (highest closing bid price): sorry, I know you all probably wanted to pick that number?

"the court case could have been prompted by the direction of travel of the sale negotiations. We now need to have a clear strategy about how and who will fund the court case. "

Indeed MrBWM, If it's main purpose was to prompt an offer, that really does look like the last roll of the dice, and the options now need to be reviewed. According to some the litigation costs are all covered by insurance, but that sounds like optimistic BS, frankly, and realistically Nano cannot afford them. Realistically there must be a possibility that they are forced to drop the case, if so, better do it sooner than later, but either way we need a plan.

As far as maximising shareholder value, the FSP has backfired. As was pointed out by the realists here, Nanoco entered the FSP from a position of weakness, and they retreat from it arguably weakened further. The fact that they couldn't induce even a single acceptable offer once again puts a big question over what, if anything, anyone would pay for the IP. Inflationary claims and exaggerations made about it dominated this board for weeks, but you were one of the few reasonable voices, so thanks for that. Good luck all, we need it!

Bronx, I agree there are other reasons to hold ORPH besides vague hopes of profiting from the COVID-19 response or licensing the "lottery ticket" flu vaccine. Do you see genomics wonks Wuxi Nextcode as a possible buyer of ORPH later this year?

Yes Jatw, the swift and deep M&G dip is intriguing: they seem to still be regarded with some suspicion of inherent weakness by the market? Pru's fall was cushioned by the backhanded compliment from hedge fund raiders, that she is massively undervalued, the charming cads! Neither of these trends was apparent until recently. I wonder if todays bounce is of the deceased feline variety, or if it can be sustained by a good reporting season. To my mind the COVID-19 situation has not improved at all since yesterday, with US deaths immediately following Trump's cack-handed announcement that everything is under control. The vaccine seems to be a difficult one to produce, according to experts, and we may well see another winter or even two before one can be deployed. There is a marked contrast between containment efforts in different countries, and it should be very interesting to see how the outcomes from the NHS response compare against the money-focused US system, hampered as it is by ignorant, delusional leadership.

Unusually well written, detailed report on the business. Management here are superb communicators.
Solid results, much as expected, but a huge boost comes from signs of recovery in the semiconductor sector.

The impact of COVID-19 on the supply chain is mentioned, an external factor to consider as a specific risk here, but there are two factors mitigating it - Vietnam are handling the outbreak superbly, and the challenging upgrade to the SAS ERP sotware system has been completed, giving greater control and flexibility.

Completion of the expansion in Vietnam early last year increased total Asian manufacturing capacity from $170M to $300M per annum. Considering work began in 2017, the shift in location has been fortunate in terms of avoiding US tariffs, but in the long term the company aims to have the ability to be able to manufacture all products in either Vietnam or China, which seems both prudent and sensible. The increased capacity is complemented by an increased order book, so all now seems in place for a growth phase.

James Peters, Chairman, commented:

“We delivered a resilient performance in 2019 despite facing a number of challenges. While growth in our Healthcare, Industrial Electronics and Technology markets remained robust, this was offset by a cyclical slowdown in the Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturing market and pressure on gross margins, resulting from the increase in US trade tariffs on Chinese manufactured goods and changes in product mix. Despite these headwinds we grew order intake and revenues over prior years, continued to win new designs and made good strategic progress.“

“Trading conditions in the early months of 2020 give grounds for optimism. Signs of a recovery in the Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturing sector are reflected in our strong order intake in the fourth quarter of 2019 and are finding good opportunities for the products brought into the Group portfolio through the acquisitions of Comdel and Glassman. We also expect benefits from the transfer of production from Minden to Vietnam in the second half of 2020. However, we are affected by certain external events, such as the impact the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus had on our supply chain. This introduces some caution into our outlook, but we remain encouraged by our healthy order book.”

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XPP/annual-results-for-the-year-ended-31-december-2019-9gv1x9rzkt9fa9k.html

PP, not one of the reasons you give has anything whatsoever to do with RGs buying and shorting. You haven't referred to it, nor made any attempt at reasoned analysis of it. That's disappointing, because it tends to show that you don't really have any argument to offer, leaving us nothing to debate. With Griffiths buying up to 21.4714 and selling at 30.0465, the 25p figure remains the most convincing analysis of his possible valuation figure so far.

"as far as I see you are the only one having that assessment of RGs actions. no one else comes to the conclusion that the RNS or RGs actions show a value of 25p"

Who cares whether 25p is popular or not, the question is whether it is right or not. If you can't say why you object to the figure, or even suggest any alternative number, then you shouldn't be criticising it. Have you even looked at the RG data? If so, give your alternative analysis of it instead of continually dodging the question.

In this presentation by CEO Trevor Phillips from January, he specifically states, at 6:09 "we don't currently work on Coronavirus". If that had changed, there would surely have been an announcement:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gVEiLrMsjg

RG bought an even bigger chunk at 21.4714p on Friday. Exactly the same price as his Thursday buy, so maybe part of the same deal? He's now added over £1m in total to his long position in Nanoco this year.