Member Info for BlahBlahDoh

"sounds like they're at the animal testing stage - we're at the human testing stage. Big difference"

The big difference, surely, is that Novavax are attempting to create a vaccine for COVID-19 and ORPH are not. There are at least seven organisations working towards vaccines of various types, many of them backed by funding from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, but ORPH are not one of them. Vaccines will be too late for many anyway, with the peak of the crisis probably coming before they are ready, so anti-viral drugs such as remdesivir and kaletra seem more relevant right now. Friel has been careful to distinguish between discovery and services, and we should too, if we want to understand what we're investing in.

Doubt it LS95, it's been planned since October and funds set aside. M&G probably still generating a reasonable amount of cash too, unlike some companies? Portmeirion "suspended" their dividend today though, and their shareholders are probably smashing crockery with petulance.

Pru "is rolling out artificial intelligence (AI) driven software that can identify unusual activity on its computer networks and automatically isolate hacking or malware attacks across its IT networks in more than 14 countries.

The project will allow security analysts in two operations centres in Asia and the US to respond to potential hacking, malware or insider threats around the clock."

They're deploying a software system called Antigena, from a company called Darktrace (no, really):
https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252480057/Prudential-turns-to-AI-to-secure-networks-against-cyber-attacks

Anyone else remember Garth Marenghi's Darkplace, or the IT crowd? How about Computer Weekly!

Actually Sage are nicely positioned to take advantage of the crash with a perfectly timed massive buyback programme as a result of the sale of Sagepay. A silver lining par excellence, with the buying scheduled to continue until January next year. Long term value here, surely?

After weeks of exposure, there are only 4 mortalities in Hong Kong and only 3 in Shaanxi (where Pru opened their 20th Chinese branch last year). Asian countries generally , even South Korea, seem to have done a better job of containing the virus than the West.

Anyone else defiantly clutching at straws? M&G's CEO even bought some of their shares yesterday, happy days!

CEO John Foley swoops for 150,000 shares at £1.11
Looks like he bought early Tuesday - calling the bottom a little early, maybe?

Only 7K deaths? It was 5.8K yesterday. Wonder what it will be tomorrow. Wonder what it would have been if drastic measures had not been taken. Spanish flu killed an estimated 50 million.

It's actually only the 9th biggest faller on the FTSE100 today.
Zero interest rates announced in the US yesterday probably had an impact?

Unbelievably, Spikey's demonic 666p is now in view. Markets seem to be anticipating an unprecedented revenue drought due to the impact of lockdowns. Feels like a melodramatic overreaction, but who really knows. We're in uncharted territory - here be dragons?

I agree Gavin, compelling and relatively cheap compared to other stocks, even before the recent falls. Also, Asia seems to be first to recover from COVID-19, so arguably well positioned with pent-up demand too. Hope we're right!

Some of the fall will be to do with oil prices, interest rates, central banks serious concerns over business prospects, but the second wave was probably caused by Trump's disastrous speech today, even more incredibly incompetent than usual, an absolute confidence wrecker, riddled with serious errors and logical inconsistency. Wall street was suspended, again, shortly afterwards. With no real leadership, lack of testing an ongoing scandal, and 30 million with no health insurance, the crisis in the US may turn out to be even worse than anywhere else.

None of my business Gavin, but maybe think about diversification? The FTSE 100 is mostly double digit falls today, never seen anything remotely like it:
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-100/heat-map

Apologies jatw, I misconstrued. I agree that it's probably pointless buying now PURELY for this years dividend, as it's priced in, but on the other hand, waiting until ex-div date might mean missing out on possibly the biggest dip in the SP of all time?

A Total Shareholder Return consideration cannot logically ignore the dividends, and to my mind they give M&G a good underpinning compared to companies who only offer growth, which is likely to be in very short supply over the coming months. Although M&G are hurt by market falls, in terms of AUM and the associated fees, that is almost certainly a temporary phenomenon, almost like compressing a spring, and the nature of their business means they don't face the existential threat that other companies may do during this crisis - look at Saga and Finablr for example.

Possible explanation is the emergency interest rate cut, but no, let's face it, it was all down to Shezer : )

Never seen a bear disco dancing before, it seems to have collapsed the floor.

" if Flu v gets monetised (possibility with Chinese Pharma company) then 100p plus wouldn't surprise me.."

There's likely to be continuing newsflow about that at least, with the scientific report just published, a second one on the way and ongoing talks with both European and US regulators regarding pathways to approval. This would be a blockbuster product if successful and any revival of interest in it would probably give a huge boost to the SP. It seems like a bit more than just a lottery ticket right now? Fingers crossed.

So you're saying the SP will likely drop with the dividend by 15.77p on ex-div date, then by another 18.5p odd next year, leaving it at about 135p Jatw? Sounds deeply pessimistic, imo. I predict a recovery in the markets by then, and expect the M&G SP to follow them back up, to possibly double that figure, but perhaps it's just wishful thinking.

Good point Jimzi, but if you really want to nitpick is was specifically "two" rather than your more open-ended "plural", and Friel's not only acknowledged it, he's actively dealing with it, so what more do you want? Thanks for keeping a sharp eye on these things though, useful contribution.

Very pleasing set of results in a difficult year. While noting the even more difficult times ahead, Wells emphasises the resilience of Pru's earnings.

Contrary to misinformed reports, Wells has conceded to none of Loebs demands, going instead with his own pre-existing plans: a minority IPO of Jackson in order to raise funds for diversification. Some claim that is just a tactic to put Jackson in the shop window, but does Wells operate like that? From what I've seen he generally plays with a straight bat so I take him at his word, for now.

Dividend is 25.97 cents, payable on 15th May (ex-div 26th March). The converted amount payable to UK holders will not be announced until around 30th April, based on currency buying over a couple of days! Not sure why they need to delay the conversion for so long, placing it closer to the payment date than the announcement date. This sort of arrangement tends to demonstrate the logic of Loeb's argument: it's really not a UK company any more. At current rates that's just under 20p, slightly higher than forecast I think, but fx rates can be volatile so it's not quite nailed down yet.

Andinio's list of multiple active revenue streams for ORPH doesn't even mention the long term reason most initial holders got on board - the database platforms. Hopefully background work on these is quietly progressing in expert hands, another potentially highly valuable asset.

Hard to see the downside here atm. Enjoying the communication and energy from management. Everybody needs a puff of whatever Cathal is vaping, can it be bottled and sold?

"Over the past five years, shareholders have experienced very little return from their investment in Prudential plc. "

Loeb ignores the generous dividends because he disapproves of them, preferring reinvestment.
Overall though, his logic is sound: bring on the Loeb-otomy, pass Mike the scalpel...

Don't know why people are making up fanciful excuses for why the FSP ended. Nanoco never had a bid before the FSP, no evidence of one during it, and none since it ended. Anyone unbiased would surely conclude that it failed simply because no-one was really interested in buying at Nano's asking price, not even the targeted party, regardless of the court case, negotiating tactics, COVID-19, or anything else.

The one thing we can learn from it is that someone has looked in detail at Nanoco's value and decided that it is a lot lower than the asking price, so much lower that the gap is impossible to bridge. And if the infringement claim is true, Samsung allegedly think it's good enough to steal but not worth paying for? The company urgently needs to change these attitudes and perceptions, and, given their record, some might well question whether current management are capable of doing that.