Member Info for bladerunneruk

I have asked AI for an explanation of the poor performance relative to its peers. Apparently, there is the potential to rise by 50% to 100% if scheme 1 is abandoned ie. just make payments for 2014 onwards. If the redress stays as it is and CBG have provided enough capital for recompense then there should be a modest rise. However, if CBG have not put enough funds into the actual repayments that have been suggested by Viceroy, then the outcome could be disastrous. This could be capital raise and share dilution.

According to AI (tried three versions and similar response from each) it is this potential lack of equity that is holding back large investors. They don’t like the uncertainty.

In my opinion, this is a relatively safe bet with the potential for large gains, if I’ve done my homework correctly. Viceroy are a scam outfit who are unreliable and should be ignored. Instead, I have confidence in the directors’ purchases and the latest RNS from CBG.

I’m not about to receive my increase any time soon, instead I need patience and to ignore daily movements on no news. Don’t let emotions make your decisions, rely on logic.

Google finance may be inaccurately showing the two 470k (£2m) trades delayed in time.

14:36, 14:39 two trades for 2m each. Google finance shows similar size trades more recently. Any ideas?

I’m expecting scheme 1 (2007-2014) to be quashed and scheme 2 to be maintained. This should reduce the total payout for CBG from about 320 to somewhere between 250 and 280.

As ever with the FCA, don’t expect a decision anytime soon.

You’re completely correct Mr Onions to cite this important update regarding Touro.

The latest significant announcement regarding the Proyecto Touro permitting process was released on 14 April 2026 as part of Atalaya Mining's Q1 2026 Operations Update.

The key development is a positive ruling by the High Court of Justice of Galicia (TSXG) that has voided the regional government's January 2020 negative environmental decision. This ruling has significantly increased the company's confidence in the eventual successful permitting of the project.

Financial Times

Current Permitting and Development Status

Strategic Status: The project continues to be processed under the Strategic Industrial Project (PIE) designation awarded in June 2024 by the Xunta de Galicia. This status allows for simplified administrative procedures and shorter permitting timelines.

Progress on Reports: As of early 2026, most sectoral reports from the Xunta de Galicia have been finalised, with only two reports still pending.

Preparatory Works: In anticipation of the final permits, Atalaya's local entity, Cobre San Rafael (CSR), is advancing with:

Detailed engineering and procurement of long-lead items.

Strategic land purchases and ongoing exploration drilling.

Operating a new water treatment plant to address legacy acid water runoff issues from historical mining.

Https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/ueberblick/close-brothers-group-plc-stock-gb0007668071-is-its-uk-focused-lending/69167022

Https://www.thefridaytimes.com/14-Apr-2023/uk-govt-alerted-to-viceroy-research-s-secret-links-with-russian-state

This includes “ In two major litigation cases in the US and in South Africa, Fraser Perring was accused of conspiring to manipulate stock price, making false, defamatory, deceptive and misleading statements, impersonating personnel and creating fake whistleblowing accounts”

“ Fraser John Perring himself – who has no financial training or background to speak of – has been described as dishonest by several reports and was struck off being a social worker due to falsifying records. Perring had been struck off the Health and Care Professionals Council (HCPC) Register for failing to contact a child’s extended family to arrange alternate care and then falsifying case records to cover his failure whilst working for Lincolnshire County Council”

I find it incredible that this organisation can still have an effect on a ftse 250 share price despite the comments above.

Long term the sp should return to a more realistic valuation. There is currently the opportunity to buy at a reduced price.

I make that a total of £71,432 being bought today. Maybe they haven’t read the alarming Viceroy report. If they had I’m certain they wouldn’t have made their purchases of the shares. Or perhaps, their inside knowledge of the company means that they have confidence in the provision made by CBG.

Oh dear, there are now less shares available for people looking to close their short positions.

I think Viceroy have suddenly been caught out and are desperately trying to deflate the so in an attempt to close their short position. They’ve been caught short.

Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-15706299/Close-Brothers-critic-pockets-3m-bet-related-car-finance-scandal.html

We might need to start a crowdfunding page to help them cover their shorts.

Looking at other banks increasing by 4% and CBG hovering around 1% is not, in my opinion, and indicator to switch your funds. The FCA update was positive for CBG. They are not going to wipeout like Viceroy suggested. Instead there will be a professional RNS released in the near future with an estimate of likely costs. This could be above 300 or below but either way the uncertainty will be removed and I’m then expecting it to catapult upwards. Only those holding before the RNS release will benefit.

The sp has been reduced massively due to uncertainty. After the announcement on Monday evening the uncertainty will initially be removed and the sp will increase. Those waiting in the wings for clarity can then buy at a premium.

Following this will be new uncertainty. How many cases will make a claim. Will it be more for CBG than others (yes- that’s why this has tanked). The share price will then retreat until CBG announce , unexpectedly, how many claims they’ve had. This will be less than the doomsday scenario predicted by short sellers.

Out of the blue - dividend reintroduced 20% uplift. Doh! Wish I’d held.

You can avoid all this anxiety by just holding and hoping for the best long term. Or alternatively, gamble with what you can afford to lose - sell on Thursday, like I did, expecting it to drop after the ubs announcement (just like it did in January immediately following an upgrade) and buy Mon pm at a lower price.

Predictions for Tuesday am - initially up 20% then back below opening price. I don’t think the FCA announcement will have much effect, I think it’s already known and CBG will probably have to stump up some more cash.

Https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/ubs-upgrades-close-brothers-stock-rating-on-valuation-recovery-outlook-93CH-4581493

Https://consumervoice.uk/cars/fca-car-finance-redress-scheme-could-exclude-borrowers-who-paid-more-overall/

Having done some simple maths on the data above and after taking into account those who can claim through DCA, there are about 15% of car loan customers unable to claim under the proposed FCA scheme,

I’ve not got the expertise of PWC, however I can analyse some basic maths:

9m DCA pool

6% share → 540k agreements

75% claims → 405k claims

£900 payout

Total cost ≈ £365m

This is using £900 instead of the suggested £700. The numbers suggested by Viceroy are implausible. Despite their unfounded calculations the current sp has factored in a worst case scenario.

We won’t actually know the detail until the FCA redress scheme is announced and once it is delivered I’m not expecting a judicial review. I think the banks will be keen to move on.

If CBG are required to raise some more funds then the recent CET1 of 14.3% should adequately cover them.

There are two minor increases in shorts recently. When these have to close it will only add productively to the sp.

I’m hopeful of a 70% uplift in the sp in the next fortnight - especially after this uncertainty has gone.

Could viceroys research report on CBG be an attempt to lower the share price prior to the FCA announcement in order to buy a lot of shares at a low price?

Short answer: it’s possible in theory, but there’s no evidence yet that this is what happened. What you’re describing would essentially be a short-seller strategy, and that’s exactly the type of firm involved here.

In my opinion, Viceroy haven’t built a large short. Instead it appears obvious that the sp will fly after the FCA announcement and they want to purchase them at a bargain price before the announcement is made. I think they have a successful strategy that appears to be working.

✅ By late March 2026 (Week of 24–28 March)

This is well within what the FCA and market commentators refer to as early 2026 for the final rules to be published.

📍 20 March (Friday)

Still slightly early in most regulatory timetables — possible, but less in line with expected “early Q1” timing.

📍 27 March (Friday)

This is more plausible because:

It’s closer to the end of the quarter when regulators often issue final policy statements.

It gives firms and markets more time after consultation responses and internal reviews.

External commentary expects “final rules in February or March

It has also provided a lot of reassurance via comments on bond market movements. The fact that the bond markets have not responded negatively to the CBG short attack are encouraging.

Completely agree with the previous comments regarding today’s RNS.

Viceroy have had success in the past with some companies. However, checkout their attack on AMD. They also said it was worthless, however it went on to rise significantly. They later claimed they had changed their position to long.

I expect the same to happen here. Cause the sp to drop, then acquire a large amount at a low price. Following this they change their opinion to CBG being a sound long term investment.

Ignore any short term noise.

I’m not an expert, so have to rely on advice from other posters on here and research online. After an hour using ChatGPT and Deep Seek I feel much more confident. One explanation for why the costs are unlikely to be above the already provisioned £300m is the claim rate.

Viceroy have factored in 90% of potential claimants going ahead. ChatGPT has a much more realistic figure of 30-40%. This is based on previous cases such as PPI.

I don’t think a scare like this hurts in that it gets you to check your research. However, I’m now confident with my shares. The AI went on to explain why CBG is a particularly good long term investment and is recognised as such by professional investors. In my opinion, this is a flash in the pan that will have caused some stop losses to trigger but ultimately will be soon forgotten about.

If the sp increases 5% in a day we can be quick to congratulate ourselves on a wise decision. If it falls 5% then it is unfair. Both of these situations have an effect on our emotions. We are either happy and want to repeat the event with an even bigger profit, so buy more or alternatively feel ‘cheated’ and want to avoid the experience happening again.

You can learn from these losses and choose to buy when others are selling, as long as you have done your research and it is a trustworthy organisation. In my opinion, CBG is a safe bet. I could be completely wrong and lose all my money.

At the end of the day it’s gambling - if you can’t stand the heat stay out of the kitchen,