George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-profit-drops-third-quarter-2022-10-14/
I’m hoping that a similar story unfolds for Barclays. Accept loan defaults but potential for these to be more than compensated for by rising interest rates. Barclays credit card receipts should boost their profits and perhaps a return to pre financial crash sp.
A fortnight ago the sp rose by about 12% after 4.30 pm on Friday. Last Friday it rose 8% after 4.30. Is this institutional investors buying, mms swaps or does anyone know more about this?
The longer the chapter 11 deliberations the more likely a favourable outcome.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228232563_The_Success_of_Chapter_11_A_Challenge_to_the_Critics
https://repository.law.umich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1349&context=mlr
These reports suggest that after removing the small companies who have very little hope, the probability of a successful outcome is 70%. This includes companies valued at 6bn. The larger the company the better the outcome, historically.
However, it’s not a quick system. A year is a quick turn around. I don’t think we’ll see an overnight increase in the sp from 2p to a pound but if you are prepared to gamble and hold then I’m hopeful for an increase to 20p or more in 12 months. You won’t get that kind of return from a high street bank.
Another 2 quotes from this article:
They also show that confirmation rates jumped to two-thirds or more among
larger debtors, debtors
By 2002, bigger cases enjoyed more than double the success rate of their smaller counterparts.
They also refer to large companies reaching a solution more quickly than small companies due to better legal teams.
I think we’re heading for good times in the next 3-6 months.
Read the 3 articles and then thought about the content. It’s written accurately for most of the time with good use of legal terms. This causes the reader to typically have confidence in the writer. Towards the end it gives a summary along the lines of ‘worthless’ and most chapter 11 cases end in failure. However, there’s no evidence to support this conclusion.
I did a little search and found the following quote online:
“ Because the Chapter 11 hospital is explicitly designed to deal with both ailing patients and corpses, the business failure rate can be understood better if the two kinds of cases are separated. Isolating those cases with a reason- able chance of success, as measured by the debtor's ability to advance a plan-any plan-of reorganization, we discovered that the success rate soars to more than seventy percent.”. This is from an old article and requires proper checking - https://repository.law.umich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1349&context=mlr
However, my point is that the shares are almost worthless at 2p having dropped from about a pound. The potential losses are factored into the sp. It seems to me like there are credible plans in place to hopefully keep the company in operation.
It’s difficult trying to predict where this is going. Is the Netflix trial a precursor to buying out cinema or are the three online posts to be believed? It’s a gamble. Good luck.
bigging up
Just seen Donna on bbc news bugging up the movie industry. A summary of the next couple of year’s films from Universal is at: https://www.nation.com.pk/06-Oct-2022/british-film-executive-donna-langley-wants-to-send-tom-cruise-to-space
To make movies matter, to make them connect with the cultural zeitgeist, to create movie stars and to create directors and careers, it really does need that theatrical experience," she says.
Listen to the full interview with Donna Langley on The Media Show on BBC Sounds and watch on BBC iPlayer.
Check it out here: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451904-how-to-short-stock
I’m not known for getting financial timing right so definitely not about to give advice just making observations. I bought my first house in 1994 in Bath, 3 bedroom terrace for 65k. The same street now sells for 600k. With hindsight I’d have bought the street.
Those people who did buy then and held have done well. Good luck to them. They have only benefitted long term if they cash in now. The properties will decline in price. When they smell the coffee and decide to sell so will everyone else. It’s going to be the housing market crash like never been seen before. They won’t ‘tough it out’. If they did they’d lose millions. They’ll be rushing to exit and retain a profit.
I think you’re about to see a lot of Aston martins and Porsches for sale.
Hard work never killed anyone, did it?
Wolf of snacks has been filtered by me and the comments are much better without him.
I’m into a few shares and I’m reading horror stories of ‘investors’ being down on 9 out of 10 shares. Regularly people are 60% down. The overall ftse figure doesn’t show this. It’s because a large portion is made of oil producers which are having good times. I won’t give my political opinions here despite making a lot of money previously as a seismic observer.
I feel lucky only being down 20%. This is one share I have confidence in. Comments from wolf of wnaks reassure me that I’m making a safe bet.
I’m holding in anticipation of a major contract. The products are currently being trialled and if they are as good as dhl have verified it will hopefully be a game changer.
According to Google Finance, the Barclays sp was more double the current price 30 years ago. The FTSE 100 was a similar value 22 years ago. I appreciate that investors have been paid dividends but why has the sp not risen like we might expect it to. In my opinion, individuals with large deposits to invest have put it into property since the 1990s and done well. Income and a rise in the purchase price. I think this is soon about to end. Unlike previous property crashes where family’s would sell their house due to the mortgage being too expensive we will now see individual landlords suddenly selling 10 properties overnight. Where will they put their money? Either the stock market or bitcoin perhaps.
I think we’re about to see ‘safe’ stock prices rise so fast they may even keep up with inflation.
The most important line to me was about 2/3 of the way through. The future is unknown to the board and seems to depend on the number of customers next year. Unknown to anyone except Clare Voyant and Crystal Balls
I bought on 24 Aug at 0.49 after a reasonable amount of research and felt confident with my decision. This board is fairly typical 90% believers who share useful info 10% disgruntled ex holders or those at a significant loss or shorters. I would really like this share to be successful- green, British, novel.
Prior to today’s RNS I was expecting a 10% to 25% rise and I thought, wrongly, the recent declines in price were trying to frighten investors into selling prior to good news and an uplift in the share price.
After reading the news this morning I was seriously worried. It was the change in tone. Instead of being ‘too many projects to keep track of’ it changed to ‘ new revenue model of recurring revenues from servicing’ . It seems like overnight there’s nothing in the pipeline. I appreciate that those still invested will quickly counter this with future irons in the fire and I genuinely hope you’re right. However, I think despite having a great product that the world desperately needs I think current investment plans are not happening.
I’m a science teacher and respect the technology of EQT. It’s brilliant. However, this is my 29th year as a teacher. We were told this week that whenever a teacher leaves the school they are not going to be replaced. Instead we will have bigger classes. All school trips are being cancelled. I work in the school that has the biggest school sixth form in the country. Total size 2500 students and no school trips. We are entering challenging times and in my opinion that’s why the price has dropped today.
Final comment - thanks a lot to Aandi who clearly devotes a lot of time to promoting EQT. Hope it all goes well.
Hi breaktwister, I spent hours researching this share and bought on 24 Aug at 11,3. I thought I was really smart when it increased soon after by 10% with no news. I was considering buying more - pleased I didn’t. All the news was positive- fertiliser price increasing, Brazil being self sufficient etc.
I was expecting the sp to increase this morning by about 25% prior to the release of the RNS. After reading, them both, I was confident of an increase. As it fell I quickly sold. This was at 7.85 and a 31% loss. I’m really pleased I’ve sold. I have since looked at the information and have started to understand the bigger picture, I think.
The current financial problems are global and not specific to the uk. Any share, even if the current data is good, will probably decline in the near future. There’s a tightening of belts. You have to be really clever or have inside information to make a profit in the current climate. Research of previous performance and projected profits is not good enough.
Instead, think laterally. I don’t believe in cross ramping so I’m not going to promote any other share here.
Share prices are very difficult to predict. Humans naturally look for patterns or trends. It’s human nature to buy a rising share price, expecting it to continue. I’m as easily persuaded by this as anyone.
It seems crazy to buy shares in a company ‘protecting themselves from bankruptcy’, owing much more than it seems they can ever repay. However, all this information is public knowledge and factored into the sp. When you are warned of ‘significant dilution’ you aren’t about to put your pension pot or hard earned savings into such a risky gamble. However, this is where your money, in my opinion, is most likely to prosper. If you’re looking for the next best thing, lithium for electric cars, graphene, renewable energy it’s almost a certainty that you’ve missed the boat or are too late to the party. You need to be ahead of the game or in there before hand.
Unless you have a tip off from a minister about government policy in the next few weeks you need to take a chance on what might seem like a certain loss. This is Cineworld. The terms ‘bankruptcy’ and ‘significant dilution’ are frightening terms until you understand their true meaning. This is safe as any other share, in my opinion, but massively oversold. A risk averse person will wait to see it rise 25% tomorrow, similar on Monday then wait for a drop to buy. It rises again on Tuesday and before you know it, the price is 10-15p. If you buy then, you’ve possibly missed the boat.
Also, I could be wrong. It could be 1p at the end of tomorrow. Please don’t put the pension pot on this…….
I think this is going to rocket. To paraphrase Odey, this is going to be the gift that keeps giving. Got to be in it to win it!
I hope I’m not proven wrong but I am long on Barc. I bought more today. When the inevitable interest rate rises start I’m confident this will take off.
Gross profit
1,582,149 1st half 2022
186,267 1st half 2021
How can this be interpreted as anything other than excellent?