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However, short-sellers have actively targeted the stock, arguing that worst-case legal outcomes could severely stress that capital. A larger, heavily capitalized retail bank could absorb any tail-risk effortlessly, unlocking the deep value of CBG's core commercial and premium finance books. 

Summary View

There is no paper trail of an active, disclosed offer. However, the evidence supporting the rumor is structural: by late August, the regulatory fog surrounding the pre-2014 claims will begin to clear, and the company will exist purely as a streamlined lending bank with a depressed valuation. For a rival lender looking to buy a high-quality loan book at a discount and manage the regulatory wind-down under one roof, the window of opportunity opens wide right around that time.

While there is no official, confirmed bid on the table, a confluence of data points explains why a potential takeover by another lender—particularly one already exposed to the motor finance sector—is being actively discussed as a "reasonable probability" post-mid-August.

Here is the concrete evidence and structural rationale supporting that hypothesis:

1. The Mid-August Regulatory Trigger: The Pre-2014 Deadline

‘post-mid-August" aligns precisely with the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) implementation timeline for its industry-wide motor finance redress scheme (PS26/3).

The FCA split the scheme into two distinct tranches to handle the fallout from the discretionary commission arrangement (DCA) scandal. 

While the post-2014 tranche had a June implementation deadline, the pre-2014 tranche has a strict implementation deadline of August 31. 

Lenders must finalize how they are categorizing, assessing, and processing these older claims by the end of August. Crucially, the entire scheme is currently facing legal challenges. For a potential bidder, the weeks surrounding these August milestones will provide the first real clarity on the exact scale, legal boundaries, and ultimate cost of CBG's historical liabilities. 

2. A "Cleaned Up" Target: Disposed Assets

A major historical hurdle to a takeover of Close Brothers was its multi-faceted structure; a banking buyer might want the loan book but have no interest in market-making or wealth management.

Management has systematically stripped the company down to its core banking operations to shore up capital. The sale of Winterflood Securities to Marex and the disposal of Close Brothers Asset Management (CBAM) have effectively turned CBG into a pure-play specialist lender. This makes it a far simpler, "plug-and-play" acquisition target for a larger retail bank or peer lender. 

3. The "Consolidation of Redress" Logic

The Valuation Disconnect: CBG’s share price remains heavily depressed relative to its underlying loan book performance due to the "material uncertainty" of the FCA fine.

Synergies in Remediation: A larger peer (such as Lloyds/Black Horse or Santander) already possesses the massive legal, administrative, and technological infrastructure required to process millions of motor finance claims. Merging CBG’s book into an existing remediation framework scales down administrative costs significantly.

Capital Resilience: In its trading updates, CBG notes its CET1 capital ratio stands at a robust 14.3% (and projects it can comfortably absorb its estimated £320 million hit).

The FCA redress scheme was relatively easy to determine a rough total cost for each lender. For CBG let’s say £320m. Although this may be unfair and excessive it is a known figure to make predictions about the future from.

VW, Mercedes etc are challenging these schemes. It looks like they may win. If they do then the redress scheme either evolves or is part cancelled. This would open the door to claims companies representing car purchasers rather than the FCA redress scheme. The costs could then be larger than £320n because of financial costs and potentially larger claims than £800 per customer. It could also be lower. However, there is uncertainty and this is what ‘the market’ doesn’t like.

Let’s see……

The FCA redress schemes provided some certainty for CBG, with respect to total costs. It looks like it may not happen. This coincides with CMCs given permission for combined claims. Their costs could be a large unknown which provides uncertainty for lenders. Larger banks, such as Lloyds are regarded as being able to manage these costs. It could cause financial difficulties for smaller lenders - potentially.

In my opinion, the FCA redress will go ahead but without scheme 1. I think this is the ideal scenario for CBG. However, I have to sit and wait, watching the sp drop whilst this decision is made.

Exciting, isn’t it - as long as you’re only ‘investing’ what you can afford to lose.

I have asked AI for an explanation of the poor performance relative to its peers. Apparently, there is the potential to rise by 50% to 100% if scheme 1 is abandoned ie. just make payments for 2014 onwards. If the redress stays as it is and CBG have provided enough capital for recompense then there should be a modest rise. However, if CBG have not put enough funds into the actual repayments that have been suggested by Viceroy, then the outcome could be disastrous. This could be capital raise and share dilution.

According to AI (tried three versions and similar response from each) it is this potential lack of equity that is holding back large investors. They don’t like the uncertainty.

In my opinion, this is a relatively safe bet with the potential for large gains, if I’ve done my homework correctly. Viceroy are a scam outfit who are unreliable and should be ignored. Instead, I have confidence in the directors’ purchases and the latest RNS from CBG.

I’m not about to receive my increase any time soon, instead I need patience and to ignore daily movements on no news. Don’t let emotions make your decisions, rely on logic.

Google finance may be inaccurately showing the two 470k (£2m) trades delayed in time.

14:36, 14:39 two trades for 2m each. Google finance shows similar size trades more recently. Any ideas?

I’m expecting scheme 1 (2007-2014) to be quashed and scheme 2 to be maintained. This should reduce the total payout for CBG from about 320 to somewhere between 250 and 280.

As ever with the FCA, don’t expect a decision anytime soon.

You’re completely correct Mr Onions to cite this important update regarding Touro.

The latest significant announcement regarding the Proyecto Touro permitting process was released on 14 April 2026 as part of Atalaya Mining's Q1 2026 Operations Update.

The key development is a positive ruling by the High Court of Justice of Galicia (TSXG) that has voided the regional government's January 2020 negative environmental decision. This ruling has significantly increased the company's confidence in the eventual successful permitting of the project.

Financial Times

Current Permitting and Development Status

Strategic Status: The project continues to be processed under the Strategic Industrial Project (PIE) designation awarded in June 2024 by the Xunta de Galicia. This status allows for simplified administrative procedures and shorter permitting timelines.

Progress on Reports: As of early 2026, most sectoral reports from the Xunta de Galicia have been finalised, with only two reports still pending.

Preparatory Works: In anticipation of the final permits, Atalaya's local entity, Cobre San Rafael (CSR), is advancing with:

Detailed engineering and procurement of long-lead items.

Strategic land purchases and ongoing exploration drilling.

Operating a new water treatment plant to address legacy acid water runoff issues from historical mining.

Https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/ueberblick/close-brothers-group-plc-stock-gb0007668071-is-its-uk-focused-lending/69167022

Https://www.thefridaytimes.com/14-Apr-2023/uk-govt-alerted-to-viceroy-research-s-secret-links-with-russian-state

This includes “ In two major litigation cases in the US and in South Africa, Fraser Perring was accused of conspiring to manipulate stock price, making false, defamatory, deceptive and misleading statements, impersonating personnel and creating fake whistleblowing accounts”

“ Fraser John Perring himself – who has no financial training or background to speak of – has been described as dishonest by several reports and was struck off being a social worker due to falsifying records. Perring had been struck off the Health and Care Professionals Council (HCPC) Register for failing to contact a child’s extended family to arrange alternate care and then falsifying case records to cover his failure whilst working for Lincolnshire County Council”

I find it incredible that this organisation can still have an effect on a ftse 250 share price despite the comments above.

Long term the sp should return to a more realistic valuation. There is currently the opportunity to buy at a reduced price.

I make that a total of £71,432 being bought today. Maybe they haven’t read the alarming Viceroy report. If they had I’m certain they wouldn’t have made their purchases of the shares. Or perhaps, their inside knowledge of the company means that they have confidence in the provision made by CBG.

Oh dear, there are now less shares available for people looking to close their short positions.

I think Viceroy have suddenly been caught out and are desperately trying to deflate the so in an attempt to close their short position. They’ve been caught short.

Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-15706299/Close-Brothers-critic-pockets-3m-bet-related-car-finance-scandal.html

We might need to start a crowdfunding page to help them cover their shorts.

Looking at other banks increasing by 4% and CBG hovering around 1% is not, in my opinion, and indicator to switch your funds. The FCA update was positive for CBG. They are not going to wipeout like Viceroy suggested. Instead there will be a professional RNS released in the near future with an estimate of likely costs. This could be above 300 or below but either way the uncertainty will be removed and I’m then expecting it to catapult upwards. Only those holding before the RNS release will benefit.

The sp has been reduced massively due to uncertainty. After the announcement on Monday evening the uncertainty will initially be removed and the sp will increase. Those waiting in the wings for clarity can then buy at a premium.

Following this will be new uncertainty. How many cases will make a claim. Will it be more for CBG than others (yes- that’s why this has tanked). The share price will then retreat until CBG announce , unexpectedly, how many claims they’ve had. This will be less than the doomsday scenario predicted by short sellers.

Out of the blue - dividend reintroduced 20% uplift. Doh! Wish I’d held.

You can avoid all this anxiety by just holding and hoping for the best long term. Or alternatively, gamble with what you can afford to lose - sell on Thursday, like I did, expecting it to drop after the ubs announcement (just like it did in January immediately following an upgrade) and buy Mon pm at a lower price.

Predictions for Tuesday am - initially up 20% then back below opening price. I don’t think the FCA announcement will have much effect, I think it’s already known and CBG will probably have to stump up some more cash.

Https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/ubs-upgrades-close-brothers-stock-rating-on-valuation-recovery-outlook-93CH-4581493

Https://consumervoice.uk/cars/fca-car-finance-redress-scheme-could-exclude-borrowers-who-paid-more-overall/

Having done some simple maths on the data above and after taking into account those who can claim through DCA, there are about 15% of car loan customers unable to claim under the proposed FCA scheme,

I’ve not got the expertise of PWC, however I can analyse some basic maths:

9m DCA pool

6% share → 540k agreements

75% claims → 405k claims

£900 payout

Total cost ≈ £365m

This is using £900 instead of the suggested £700. The numbers suggested by Viceroy are implausible. Despite their unfounded calculations the current sp has factored in a worst case scenario.

We won’t actually know the detail until the FCA redress scheme is announced and once it is delivered I’m not expecting a judicial review. I think the banks will be keen to move on.

If CBG are required to raise some more funds then the recent CET1 of 14.3% should adequately cover them.

There are two minor increases in shorts recently. When these have to close it will only add productively to the sp.

I’m hopeful of a 70% uplift in the sp in the next fortnight - especially after this uncertainty has gone.

Could viceroys research report on CBG be an attempt to lower the share price prior to the FCA announcement in order to buy a lot of shares at a low price?

Short answer: it’s possible in theory, but there’s no evidence yet that this is what happened. What you’re describing would essentially be a short-seller strategy, and that’s exactly the type of firm involved here.

In my opinion, Viceroy haven’t built a large short. Instead it appears obvious that the sp will fly after the FCA announcement and they want to purchase them at a bargain price before the announcement is made. I think they have a successful strategy that appears to be working.