Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Nobody is more bullish on Bens than me but please don’t throw everything in to any stock at the moment, this looks very much like a dead cat bounce to me ( wider market) there’s very little liquidity about and after a week of down trend especially in the US. Today’s rally isn’t exactly strong .
Let’s hope we end blue today, holding 72-73p would be good but please keep some dry powder back because until the FED reverse coarse there’s nothing solid to cling onto .
Just my opinion on the short term , medium term 12months 300p possible, longer term 18months -3years 500p probable. …., as I say just my opinion based on the figures available.
GLA
Sorry posted before finishing.
60p level is blind panic / baby out with the bath water territory.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion but I personally heard nothing in the Sunday Roast podcast to cause concern. Everything appears on schedule .
When you do the figures even on a conservative basis Ben is on a ridiculously cheap forward PE .
I’ve added another chunk @ 62p but in the current market im not going all in because much of what we are seeing is not down to company specific fundamentals it’s just a flight to liquidity. , remember a drop from 100p to 50p is 50% loss but a rise from 50p to 100p is a 100 % gain . So careful purchasing may well prove wise medium term but keep some powder dry just encase cheap becomes dirt cheap .
GLA DYOR
Hands up I thought we’d hold the 82-85p support, I definitely thought the the 72-73p would hold as both had Been flipped from support into resistance on the way up . To have dropped to 60p so quickly is just
If we consolidate for a while in the 83-88p area I personally see this as very positive, having listened to the Sunday roast everything seems to be on track , management clearly cautiously optimistic, under promising and over delivering which is refreshing from a small cap miner .
We would all like to see Bens get what we believe is it’s true value today but from previous painful experience when sp shoot to the stars they tend to crash back just as quickly, building steady bases along the way backed by hard figures is much the better option. . Personally I’d prefer 500p in two years rather than a pop to 280p in 3months then a crash on any tiny bit of negativity .
GLA
Be careful out there 10-20% sell off in the wider market very possible over the next 3-4months until the fFED is forced to step in again IMO
As I said a couple of weeks ago there’s reasonably strong support in the 82-85p region , I’ve a buy order in this range although only a modest one .
It’s understandable there’s been profit taking and top slicing above £1 , any positive news should see us test that 101p -103p in quick order if we can hold above 101p at an end of week close it opens up the ATH @ 108p .
Personally I couldn’t really see the support others were calling @92-93p but TA is subjective and only ever a guide to the most likely direction of movement.
Longer term (12 months timeframe) I still see £3+ as a strong possibility. .
Just my opinion.
GLA
Essentially a market listing now is worth £30m because that’s the minimum value a company will be admitted to the market , so you could make the arrangement that QBT has a NAV of a fraction over 3p with the current 980m shares in issue. However we must also consider any liabilities , which I can only guess at been if the court case is lost and potential loses for this financial year .
We also need to remember shells with outstanding legal issues are much less attractive , so I wouldn’t be betting the house on a quick reverse takeover shouLd the tech side go wrong , but potentially there’s still value In QBT.
After months of trying to work out the truth about QBT I took the plunge and called there broker on Friday , I had a good 20min conversation both on and off the record and whilst it’s reasonable to assume the company brokers don’t know everything they do know a hell of a lot more than most .
The main takeaways I took -
An announcement is possible at anytime but it may well accompany the final results in June .
The company doesn’t have a PR department and in fact only has a handful of employees + a team of contracted computer scientist who are 1year contracts with options to extend subject to negotiation.
There is potential for be at least 120m more shares issued over the next 1 2months .
Should the company wish to pursue BTC mining it would probably have to issue more equity to fund infrastructure .
We agreed it’s difficult to directly compare QBT to any other listed company the closest comparison we could come up with is Canaan .
The EU ruling on POW mining has “presented the company with an unforeseen headache “ as this materially changes POW mining within the EU .
At least three listed crypto miners have expressed an interest in the technology QBT are developing , one of which has a small share holding in QBT with the view to increasing that exposure on announcement of positive news , my guess would be effectively underwriting a rights issue/ open offer .
On share price targets they were reasonably careful giving both an upside and downside scenario, obviously there are many unknowns such as court ruling, BTC price, EU situation, competition. To the downside if the tech fails QBT effectively becomes a shell company with a listing and given the new rules on listings it gives QBT a minimum of £30m value minus any liabilities.
Interesting conversation that still probably left more questions than answers tbh
The Central African Republic adopts #Bitcoin as an official currency. Another domino.
Slowly then quickly!
Clearly I’m giving myself a pretty wide range when I say 2-5x possible appreciation, there a few variables we can only best guess at such as the forward price of coal . But those figures are pretty close to the figures I get . One thing I would say is the market will very often overshoot on positives in the same way it will overly punish on negatives .
Personally I’ve learnt very painful and expensive lessons from not taking profit on the way up so I’ll be selling a few along the way but certainly not while the shares trade below £2
I think the secret is to keep this board quite tight , post realistic opinions, there’s some excellent posters on here who are knowledgeable and put out sp targets that are backed up with maths . I’ve given up posting on other companies are the boards are plagued with folk who are frankly clueless on both how the markets work and the specific stock they are commenting on .
Ok this isn’t exactly scientific but when we see how few trades there are and how few posts on here there are in comparison to other far less attractive companies it tells me Bens is still under the radar. I think when news drops on 2nd HWM ,new mine or rail rack and the sp jumps 15-20% in a day a lot of the FOMO chasers will want in then we could really see some upside especially if the news flow keeps coming. Commodity stocks been ramped left right and centre at the moment but as we all know very few live up to the expectation ,Bens has the figures , product and client to make it a safe bet , even now a prospective yield of 9% + the very real prospect of 2x-5x share price appreciation from here .
Thank you Rob , much appreciated.
Does anyone know if we have a contracted price for our coal delivery or are we just selling basically at spot ?
Has anyone got a decent link to up to date coal prices …. I’ve found loads of sites but all seem only to quote futures prices .
Having gone quite deeply into the current coal situation over the past 24hours I just need a couple more bits of information. TIA
GLA
HL currently quoting 103p to sell 105p buy , looks like the coal under Ben is about to ignite!
The difference between retail and professional investors is professionals won’t hesitate to cut there losers and move on and will also take profits off the table on the way up .
That said the fundamentals are so compelling here the risk is very much to the upside. Having twice tested and bounced off the 82-85p support area that now looks pretty solid, so the downside is limited. With the news flow looking extremely positive the upside certainly doesn’t look limited anytime soon .
A close above 101p would open up the next leg IMHO .
GLA
It looks like the wider market are beginning to realise there’s a coal supply issue around the corner, this could get very interesting over the next few months and that’s on top of all the positives we have pencilled in . Probably a time to at very least hang onto your current position if not add a few . Support looks pretty solid in the 82-85p range , a push above the ATH. Should open up 100p+ in short order , any positive news opens up 110p+ quickly IMO . DYOR ,
GLA
Market makers want a two way market so they set prices to attract both buyers and sellers, they make there money on the margin. The very last thing market makers want is tens of millions of shares on there books ( unless they are collecting for an off market client ) If anything there’s a stock overhang in QBT after 24m shares were dumped on the market and trading averaging less than 10m shares daily.
Until volume picks up significantly the shares are range bound 2.95p- 2.5p with the odd daily spike either way . The volume needs to 5x-10x to really create any significant movement.
Nice mention on the Sunday roast this week , I’ve a smallish order in @ 37p but as of now its not been filled . Having been burnt a few times on gold miners I tend to scale in quite carefully hence just 10k. Initial order . This does look like a 100p+ company so fingers crossed I pull back the pure gold lose
GLA
Extremely unlikely an RNS will land on good Friday with the market closed . I’m afraid all to many of these folks putting about stories and claims to in the know , more often than not they simply don’t understand the stock market and trip themselves up .
The chap I spoke to on Twitter says he bought 10,000 and in fairness he told me that prior to it been published on the daily trades so I tend to believe him .
Absolutely comical how little interest there is among UK retail investors to the the uranium sector .
All commodities are pumping but when you see the shortfall in uranium production to the ever increasing demand it’s an absolute no brainer . Geiger counter is an ideal way to gain exposure to the large cap miners , yellowcake a nice way to play the underlying metal then maybe a little exposure to the exploration side via Power metal and all areas covered !