Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Pj seems quite excited about this tungsten story in the FT
https://www.ft.com/content/4b6f0fab-66ef-4e33-adec-cfc345589dc7
The value of Bitcoin
First we must understand that every monetary/ financial system in history has required energy , either the energy to collect/ forage or nine and create.
We now need to look at modern money & realise why it’s a confidence trick / Ponzi scheme- when cash was first invented it was made from gold / silver / copper which gave it its value and basically meant it held its value, over the years these metals have been taken out of the notes and coins meaning there actually value has shrunk because there’s nothing backing these currencies and very little intrinsic value in them , laterally central bank have been literally printed trillions and electronically distributing it out of thin air - a major reason we have such high inflation. But when you think about it the energy now required to produce a £ or € these days is a tiny fraction of a penny , this is whey the whole modern system is a Ponzi, it’s a confidence trick , there’s nothing to back up the currency we use . Ppl will say money is a reflection of a countries economic strength, with virtually every nation running huge deficits not to mention national debts I’d love someone to actually explain haw any major currency has any true value at all .
Along comes Bitcoin
Bitcoin has a maximum number of coins so it will never have its value inflated away , Bitcoin needs energy to be mined hence where it’s value is derived ( if you believe houses /gold/oil/ food/ heating/ cars have value by definition you have to understand Bitcoins value)
Finally understanding the difference between “crypto “ and Bitcoin, the vast majority of crypto is POS and like the current monetary system has no limits on availability and is created out of little more than thin air , POW relies on energy ( btw BTC was designed to use ever more efficient energy uses which we now see - flare gas / hydro / nuclear/ solar /wind / wave )
Ok that’s a short and simplistic case for BTC but it’s factual, it always makes me laugh when reading the MSM criticism of Bitcoin as they always fail to understand the difference between Bitcoin and 99.9% of “coins” and certainly never point out the enormous floors in the current financial system.
Hi Tyke68
I very much suggest you follow Anthony power on Twitter https://twitter.com/cazenove_uk?s=21&t=ysTBtt_9QqrbgFfeIIdD4A
His Bitcoin miner analysis is excellent and updated regularly,
Green ( should survive) in no particular order
Hive
Hut8
Riot
Cleanspark
DMG
Bitfarms
For transparency I am invested in 4 of the above companies probably not the best 4 in hindsight though !
Amber ( they are far from safe but not in immediate danger )
Marathon
Digihost
Bit digital
Iris energy
Red ( doubtful they will survive)
Core scientific
Argo blockchain
Terawulf
Greenidge
Luxor
Watched a very interesting interview with Sue Ennis last night , she said her company were ready to trigger M&A opportunities , I’m not sure her company could buy out Argo with cash but it’s possible they could offer paper , they certainly have the balance sheet to clear Argos debt
There’s no one size fits all to efficiency, remember there are various mining pools , some are more efficient than others ( this is actually one reason ARB perform so badly ) there’s also various methods of mining and climate factors to consider as well as downtime.
Been frank anyone claiming a certain % gain is been liberal with the truth ( and that’s not a dig at anyone involved in this conversation because there’s valid points been raised )
I think I’m correct in saying at the moment there’s up to 20% difference in efficiency between the best performing and worst & to the best of my knowledge nobody is currently using the intel chips ( should be starting this month or next from my understanding)
We also need to understand that mining pools are all competing for miners and will spin out stories from time to time claiming a single rig on there pool has won a block reward, not impossible but when the same pool claims the same thing 3 times in 3months it’s like saying you win the uk lottery on Saturday & midweek, the euro and then the football pools . In other words it’s a publicity stunt to attract the gullible.
As I side note I’ve nothing against ARB , I did very well there and far more by luck than judgement I got out while they were on the up and sold my last 30% before the real crash came . I hope they survive but sadly I feel the odds are stacked against them .
Let me play devils advocate , indulge me if you will .
Let’s say a deal with Argo is struck, a 30% improvement in efficiency would in theory produce an extra 60btc pm ( this is actually incorrect because ARB mine some Zcash & then convert into BTC )
At current BTC prices does 60 Bitcoin or let’s say £1.2m per month save Argo , imo no , probably buys a little time but postponed the inevitable from January to March/April ( without a big rise in BTC or white knight investors) so if QBT aren’t very careful they license there chip/ software to a company going into chapter 11 or possibly chapter 7 bankruptcy which could potentially mean no income for months .
Imo any chip / software either has to be sold to every miner or exclusively to 1-3 if sold to all mining companies this effectively pushes the network hash up 30% and just fuels the arms race , if you go with 1-3 that gives them a strategic advantage and therefore adds value to QBT tech .
Imo Canaan would be the perfect fit for some form of joint venture for QBT - but to qualify that I have no knowledge or evidence of any deal or talks between the two parties.
It’s 99% that the NDA is with Argo , as I’ve mentioned previously PW Dropped a clanger during a monthly update on YouTube in which he mentioned he was aware of QBT , that video was only available for around an hour before been taken down and reposted minus the reference to QBT
Personally I’d be extremely cautious of dealt with any company who’s majority operation is based in Texas, power isn’t particularly cheap when compared to other areas of North America but far more concerning is the curtailment time due to the load on the grid.
Ppl also need to understand that it’s the debt most mining companies are carrying that is killing them and not the cost of operation- obviously the more monthly profit the easier it is to service debt but in most cases the debt is that large comparatively only a huge upturn in BTC price can realistically save them .
QBT need to be extremely cautious who they get into bed with , most miners with not only go bust themselves but would very likely take a company the size of QBT with them .
Far far better to exercise patience and waits for crypto spring in order to see which miners have survived the harshness of winter .
So there we have it , the battle line is drawn at 1.5p the next leg up or a resumption in the downtrend.
Firstly the bulls want an end of day close above 1.5p but better still an end of week close above 1.5p . Which would open up the next leg 1.75p -1.79p
I’ve watched today’s trading with interest and it would appear to me that many of the big sells have taken profits on the 50-60% rise over the past week , meanwhile it’s been noticeable the number of smaller trades jumping on the momentum.
Very close on the buy v sells but once again better liquidity although still nothing to write home about.
FG could really do with releasing a snippet of positive news, such as the extension of the crypto teams contracts to really cement the current uptrend
Bulls v bears
Dead cat bounce or reversal?
The bulls will rightly point to the breakout from the downward trend line that’s been in play for the past 12 months, also a significant increase in volume is without doubt positive. I certainly wouldn’t be totally surprised to see the share price retest the 1p area before continuing up to 1.5p where imo there’s significant resistance which was previously support . I would expect the sp to fail the 1.5p level on several occasions as its not only an area or resistance but also a natural sell area for those who’ve bought below a penny (50% profit not to shabby in anyones book short term ) if we can get through 1.5p 1.75-1.79p is the next area of resistance imo , personally I feel only positive news flow will give the momentum to get beyond 1.8p ( IN THE SHORT TERM )
The bears can with reason point to 4 similar bounces during downtrend, late feb early March , June ,October and now this latest bounce all have followed steep sp drops , the bounces seem to last 7-10 days before reverting to the downside
Personally to be convinced this is a reversal I’d like to see the sp get and hold above 1.5p at that point I would become short term bullish , currently I remain neutral due to overall small cap sentiment , the Bitcoin price action and to a certain extent the FEDs monetary policy which I believe is acting as an anchor on investor sentiment.
Of course FG producing the RNS you are all waiting for / expected blows any TA out of the water !
Tyke68
Unfortunately I think you are correct to expect more drift in the coming weeks/ months, there’s a few external factors working against small and micro caps imo .
Aim companies tend to have far higher ownership by private investors, I would suggest many of these PI are struggling financially and therefore withdrawing investments to prop up household finances .
Aim has now been in bear market territory for 12-14months , possibly putting of the more risk adverse PI , on a brighter note small caps tend to enter and leave bear markets before big caps , 2001 & 2009 be classic examples, the good news is bear markets in small caps generally last 12-18months so all things been equal we should be through the worst .
More specifically to QBT we are still in crypto winter , to me it’s little surprise QBT peaked when BTC peaked last November when PI were chasing the next big thing , provided the company delivers quantifiable results there’s no reason the interest in the company won’t pick up again.
I’ll be very clear , I currently have two limited buy orders in at just above & just below what I believe to be the next major support level , this is because nearly always support slightly under or overshoots . I won’t repeat the levels again as this just opens up the ramping v deramping debate but I have previously posted on what I believe to be the next major support. I shall also say I will use a pretty tight 15-20% stop loss .
I’m very much of the belief that timing of news and the continued news flow thereafter will be critical to the future direction of QBTs SP , releasing news during a BTC bull run will have far greater value than releasing the same news in the depths of crypto winter.
Another point of interest for the wider crypto market I heard in the week was that one of the very few that called FTX a fraud prior to its collapse and had a short position has also short positions in two of the largest remaining North American exchanges, which actually puzzles me because both are heavily regulated and submitted quarterly updates to the market
. From what I understand even though both are 90% down from there peak he’s still shorting. That said it’s very easy to spook investors at these times especially when previous support levels have been breached so my hunch is he’s just betting on crypto market jitters, however if he’s right and there’s another fraudulent company ( especially an American one ) I think we can expect lower cycle lows for BTC .
One think to definitely keep in mind however is when northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley went bump it wasn’t the underlying currency (£) that was the problem it was the management and leverage built on top that was the issue.
I’m sticking with my forecast, the new bull run starts mid April-may , don’t expect big rises but more a consistent grind- higher lows higher highs on a monthly basis .
Hi Tyke68
Hope you’ve had a good week .
I fully attended one of the webinars but missed a significant part of the other due to a mix up on start time on my behalf .
Have to be honest and say there was no specific reply to the question I posed - is the company aware of software/ hardware that can save significantly on energy / improve efficiency .
What was said was that there’s currently a glut of machines on the market as some distressed miners are desperately trying to raise funds to see them through the crypto winter . It was also quite clear that miners had been wrong footed by the FTX collapse, they believed the bottom had been reached in June . The general vibe I got was that everyone is waiting for the mining companies that are on the brink to collapse in order to pick up cheap assets that are connected to power ( which is a 12-18months time saving as well as cost saving) .
As far as I’m aware there’s only cleanspark who are currently still expanding .
There are between 3&5 miners which unless there’s a very very significant upturn in BTC price quickly will probably go bust in the next 4-6weeks .
Not sure if this interview has been posted previously ( apologies if it has ) , while GMR is still under POW wing I hope you don’t mind me posting about them https://youtu.be/7MlAn5TGiGE
So another country adopts Bitcoin , at least partially.
Brazil is set to recognise Bitcoin as a legal method of payment!
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/legal/brazil-approves-use-of-bitcoin-as-payment
Next week I’m due to attend two investor webinars presented by two of the three miners I have reasonable sized holdings in Both companies previously have encouraged shareholders to submit questions both prior to the event and during a scheduled Q&A section of the presentation.
I shall be asking both companies via emailed questions if they are aware of chips/ software that can boost performance, one I know is already contracted to receive the Intel chips / machines , it’s highly unlikely I will get a specific answer but it will be interesting to gage both companies awareness of what’s available.
I do however wish to be accurate in how I ask the question so maybe a little help from Qbiters -
The original patent RNS in November 21. Claimed a circa 7% gain in efficiency/ savings of energy, , has there been an update or a more concrete % given to anyones knowledge?
The interview was held on 24th. November according to the podcast .
My buy is showing as a sell !
If pj thinks it’s a great prospect that’s good enough for me , small payday top up for me on the strength of the interview!
https://youtu.be/Inb5SW8rkTk
Just heard pj’s interview on the Sunday roast / midweek takeaway regarding an investment he holds personally ( I won’t mention the company as I don’t believe in ramping on bb) but the thing that really came across is PJ really understands how to structure good JV deals which certainly bodes well for POW , I know many will disagree with my investment thesis but the main reason I invested in power was pj , either this guy is the greatest actor of all time or he’s heading something that could be very special imo , just topped up another 38k to get me to 550k so I hope I don’t see pj at the Oscar’s lol
I know the case for lithium has been strong for some time but it could be getting even stronger with advances in battery technology!
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/mit-reports-breakthrough-solid-state-lithium-battery-development