Member Info for Bitcoinbull

’ve been banging on for months that the bull run will start in April/ May it’s been as clear as day to me on the halving chart ,that said you could very much make the case the bull run started with the near double bottom in November when we rested the June/July bottom , it’s basically open to debate .

What the chart is telling me is we should trade in a range for the next month or so $26,400 - $32k expect a run @ the $30k-$32k range before a pullback to around the level we are at now , then a nice rise from $28kish to $40k + by June / early July.

Obviously the macro conditions are very different this time around but potentially to the upside, I expect the FED to be forced to pivot within 3 months possibly even having to cut by up to 100bps , they’ll also be forced into pumping more cash into the system reversing the QT of the past 11months and reverting back to QE . It’s a reasonable bet other central banks will be forced to follow the FEDS lead as the system breaks under the strain of current policy which will be very bullish for Bitcoin.

Probably not wise to get wildly bullish on BTC price just at the moment but when you consider what the authorities have thrown at crypto in the past few weeks BTC resilience is frankly remarkable. What I will say is I think I’ve undercooked my end of year target of $38k-$42k , I’ll get the abacus out later and have another look at a few targets for end of year and cycle peak .

Have fun peeps , the bull is just snorting and pouring the ground, when he runs people will flee ;)

Signal over noise any day !

People have been trying for 13yrs to replicate Bitcoin using computers and code in fact there have been circa 28,000 attempts thus far , it’s simply not possible because of Bitcoins first mover effect, Bitcoin is now backed by the biggest computer network the world has ever seen!

The commodities you list have value perceived of there currently scarcity , nobody can put a figure on how much of anyone of those elements exist above or below ground , so actually there value is little more than guesswork. We absolutely know the total amount of Bitcoin that will produced .

So Fleecy seems to accept the banks are riddled with corruption and shady dealings , that’s a start .

You also appears to accept Bitcoin is a commodity ( he’s little choice been as the SEC & CFTC have signalled it as such ) commodities valued by scarcity for instance gold been relatively rare and difficult to mine having greater value than coal which is more common and generally speaking easier to mine .
I wonder if fleecy can name another commodity where the maximum supply is known and the difficulty to mine that asset continues to increase driving efficiency and better environmental practices?
In fact why not name another commodity that’s more environmentally friendly to mine as well ;)

As for the turd cover in gold analogy , I’ll bow to your expertise in such matters because you sure do talk a lot of Sh##

Bitcoin is unstoppable & inevitable xx

Dear Fleecy You seem to be struggling to distinguish between an exchange and the underlying asset . I’m not entirely sure if you are muddying the waters deliberately or if you simply don’t grasp the difference. I’ll pose you a question, name us one , yes just 1 tier 1 bank in ANY major western country that HASN’T been charged /fined for money laundering or manipulation of markets . Maybe other posters would keep asking Fleecy that question until he gives us an answer, because until he does his biased against Bitcoin is totally irrelevant. Bitcoin is a commodity , it’s completely different to the rest of the crypto eco system this really is crypto 101 , likewise understand that an exchange is not the underlying asset been traded . Have a good day Ya’ll ;)

Potentially massive win for Bitcoin today !
In the lawsuit filed today CFTC v Binance holdings and CZ the CFTC clearly states that Bitcoin is a commodity!

So that’s the two major finance agencies SEC and CFTC accepting BTC is a commodity and NOT a security. This will surly mean BTC will get the same/very similar tax And regulatory treatment as other commodities.

I did warn that the authorities would go after crypto in order to attempt to stop a flood of money leaving the traditional finance , we’ve now had a week of crackdowns , almost certainly there’s more to come . I’m not trying to say I told you so , it’s far more about awareness and spotting signal over noise .
Lines of support to watch
$ 26,420
$25,200
$24,380
$24k
$22k

I’ll stick my neck out and say we hold the $26,620 .

Oh and one for floppy or whatever his name is , there have been 580+ banks collapses since 2009 in that time Bitcoin just keeps going despite apparently been pronounced dead on dozens of occasions.

Remember watch the signal , ignore the noise .

Have fun ppl

Unfortunately Addi I think ppl should build that possibility into their calculations, it would certainly be prudent not to exceed the £85k that’s guaranteed by the government with any one provider .

I won’t give to many details but I took a short position in HSBC around 9 days ago , it proved quite lucrative , I transferred the funds from a well known CFD platform ( that’s listed on the LSE) back to a big high street bank on Friday morning and then tried to transfer a sum to kraken to buy more Bitcoin, that transaction was refused and my account is currently frozen ,they did allow a similar sized transaction to a British based bullion dealer just prior . Very strange as I regularly send money to kraken admittedly mush smaller amounts though .

Just imagine a banking system so broken only a complete reset could save wests economies.

From that think of how much easier it would be to collect tax and distribute welfare if the new system was digital

Now consider how efficient that new system would be if all the small banks / building societies were swallowed up by a handful of mega banks controlled by government.

Now imagine central banks setting policies that created a situation where those small banks couldn’t survive.

Consider a system so Orwellian that citizens could only hold $10k-$20k maximum before the government imposed a higher rate of tax forcing you to spend the money in your account.
Thus meaning it was near impossible to grow personal wealth .

Ladies and gentlemen I give you my crackpot theory on WEF’s plans to introduce CBDC …….. am I a crazy conspiracy theorist possibly.

Now imagine there’s a decentralised alternative , with a fixed supply, backed by the biggest computer network the worlds ever seen , easily used , a system that can’t be manipulated via government policies.
Now if this alternative to CBDC is not a threat and doesn’t expose the CBDCs for the tool of manipulation they actually are ,why won’t the authorities give clear regulation so exchanges can abide by them ? Instead they continually attempt to crack down on bitcoins on and off ramps because the truth is you can’t actually stop Bitcoin legitimately but you can in the short term make it slightly more difficult to buy and sell in some areas ( all that actually does is move exchanges based from one area to another)

Just a little food for thought ;)

The strength of Bitcoin over the last 24hours has been truly remarkable when you consider all that’s happened.

25bps rate hikes in US & UK
Arrests in the US of crypto influencers / promoters
SEC coming out and warming US citizen’s against investing in crypto .
Warnings sent to Coinbase from US regulators.

I hinted previously I thought a short term drop to $24.5k was very possible, yes we flash crashed initially $800 and then later close to $26,600 but to regain all that ground so quickly in the face of such a FUD storm is miraculous !
To me it shows folk are waking up to central bankers BS , does that mean we can’t fall again , not at all but it should add a degree of confidence that folk are starting to understand the systemic problems in the traditional financial system and allocating part of their wealth to Bitcoin and gold .
The snow drops crocus and daffodils of spring appear to be flowering !!!!

FED As we thought the FED raised 25bps last night . Now the interesting thing is all indications are that inflation in the US is set to return to normal or even go deflationary by late summer , so why did the FED raise knowing that it will send More banks to the wall in the coming days / weeks ? My suspicion is they want everyone in the USA banking with a handful of mega banks so the FED can exercise more control over the banking system and roll out there CBDC . Anyone watching Bitcoin @6pm last night as Powell spoke will have seen the $800 drop in a minute followed by an immediate recovery this was odd because all day buyers were equaling sellers and soaking up sell orders with ease. Two stories emerged in the following hours an SEC letter to Coinbase regarding Alt coins but the far bigger story was the arrests of Actor Lindsey Lohan, rapper Akon, Soulja Boy and several other celebrities were also charged in the scheme for illegally promoting Sun's crypto assets.I’m. Short the Authorities seem to be trying to kill crypto with a thousand cuts , they could simplify introduce regulations but they know once they do that it totally legitimises Bitcoin by making a clear distinction between it and shhh1tcoins and sends it to the moon . The game is warming up , it’s more important than ever you understand the difference between Bitcoin and the rest of crypto . Expect short term volatility but be reassured the higher lows and higher highs are firmly in place .

Keep a close eye on the FED rate decision today , many expecting a pause Which is one of the reasons Bitcoin has performed so well in the last week , personally on the balance of probabilities I think a .25% is likely. That’s very likely to knock stocks and Bitcoin in the short term but will undoubtedly lead to more small and mid sized bank failures in coming weeks which will just reinforce Bitcoins adoption.

Remember it’s all a game , the central banks are trying to keep a broken system alive by sweeping the mess under the carpet, a rate hike today is simply about saving face to those who believe talking heads , my bet is Powell will be forced out inside 6months & or there will be an emergency 100bps cut in the same time frame.

In the short term some nice consolation just below the $28.4 residence ( which if I’m honest I didn’t think would be that strong ) a pullback to $24.5k (over the next 7days)is possible on a rate increase today especially if it spooks the wider market ,I’d only expect a pullback for a week or two maximum as any rate hike breaks more banks so definitely hold your nerve , we all want a rocket ship but it’s important to refuel along the way .

It looks like traders are really getting stuck into the banks across Europe this morning.

Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) -7.8%

Barclays (BARC LN) -5.5%

Commerzbank (CBK GY) -5.0%

BNP Paribas (BNP FP) -4.5%

ABN AMRO (ABN NA) -3.0%

NatWest (NWG LN) -3.0%

Santander (SAN SM) -2.9%

Will the FED pivot on Wednesday ? Market still seems to think 25bps rise some even thinking they’ll go 50bps , short term that would hit Bitcoin but it present a huge buying opportunity because the central banks are attempting to bluff the market, we all know the games up and they have absolutely no option other than to change direction which is very bullish for Gold ,Silver and Bitcoin.

The central banks are holding a pair of 6’s ( which in fairness is stronger than Fleecey’s 3’s )
holding
silver QQs
gold KKs
Bitcoin KKs
Nothing in life is a certainty but by taking the time to understand the Macro you can definitely put the odds in your favour .
DYOR

Deutsche Bank is strongly rumoured to be the next brick in the fiat banking Ponzi to fall , IF this happens the whole of the European banking system is in trouble, absolutely certainly that the ECB will be forced to reverse policy and pivot the rate hikes and restart QE .
Smart money pouring into Bitcoin currently, gold and silver should also spike tonight as trading begins.

A word of caution though , expect a lot of FUD towards Bitcoin from central bankers as they desperately try to stop folk fleeing the fiat Ponzi .

Also some wild wild predictions from influencers trying to push s%%t coins , most of these coins are as bad as traditional finance . Stick to Bitcoin.

I’ve long been of the opinion that it’s effectively impossible to stop Bitcoin ( the only way would cause world wide chaos that would cause such widespread death and destruction authorities simply wouldn’t sanction it )

That opinion has now changed , I believe Addi’s predictions/ bjullishness can also stop Bitcoin- in evidence I give you the $150 drop since his post @ 11:46 . With respect fella shut it , or at least get bullish on HSBC which I’m shorting ;)

Exactly !

And once the penny drops it’s obvious why central bankers keep trying to smear Bitcoin, it exposes the true Ponzi .

Very little resistance $25k -$29kish expect the bears to make a stand just below $29k , we could find it hard to break $30k as they’ll desperately try to defend the $29k-$30k areas but I think the weight of really smart money who realise the banking system is F’d no matter what authorities tell you will win out over the next few days / week … longer term gold /silver /Bitcoin have to be in everyone’s portfolio who’s even vaguely clued up .

I won’t post one of my long winded essays but what I will say is if you do nothing else over the next 7days try to find 2hours to grasp a basic understanding of the current fractional reserve banking system, I’ll let you come to your own conclusions about it .
What I will say if you take those two hours out to educate yourself it will pay you back multiple fold over the next 2-5years

Bitcoin to $30k by end of the month , very possible but it’s never a straight line .

High lows and higher highs is all you need to concern yourself with ;)

GLA

Whatever you do please don’t keep any Bitcoin on exchange, take them off exchange and in a wallet you have the keys too.
Not your keys not your coins is a very true saying as all those who’ve had coins stolen via hacks of exchanges will unfortunately testify.

My other advice would be to do similar to me and buy monthly to smooth out the highs and lows , yes you will miss the cheapest BTC price but your also cutting the chance of putting everything In at the top and been stuck for 4 years waiting for the next cycle.
GL

Hi Tyke68

I believe the answer to the question you pose is that many perceive it far easier to buy a Bitcoin related stock rather than setting up a wallet, buying off an exchange and self custodying .
It’s actually far easier to buy Bitcoin once you have got your head around it , I’ve been buying £xxx worth every month since 2014 in that time I’ve paid well below $1k & above $60k with my average sitting @ $2.4K per coin . I’d very much advice anyone making a first purchase to start with an insignificant amount for then (£10 worth ) just to get used to the process.
That way if you drop a clanger you don’t lose to much .
In previous cycles the miners ( share price ) has outperformed Bitcoin during the bull faze by several times thus offering 10-50times leverage to the underlying BTC move . But folk mustn’t forget the the same is true on the way down with the overwhelming majority of Bitcoin related stocks down 92-95% against a Bitcoin fall of 75% ( current cycle low ) . Ppl should have a strategy to ensure they take profits on the way up , sadly most think they’ll sell out at the top and end up holding ( waiting and waiting for the top the influencers have called ) whilst the smart money will have scaled out on the ride up .

A word of caution. I’m extremely positive on Bitcoin medium and long term , I’ve stuck my neck out on several occasions and called the beginning of the next bull run to start April/May and a year end price target of $38-$42k . However we have seen the current type of market action on several occasions leading up-to major macro announcements in the USA , Bitcoin surges prior to the announcement only to fall back on disappointing news . Just be a little cautious today , hopefully soft inflation news will push BTC about the $25241 resistance and could open up a nice $4k-$$5k move to the upside, the alternative hard information data could easily knock 10-15%off over the next few days . Let’s hope this time we continue upwards . My HUNCH is the FED are stuck and will look for excuses to become dovish as each new rate hike is likely to drag down more and more banks who’ve borrowed @ 2-3% and are now forced to pay out 5-6% to savers ( or the savers withdraw cash to institutions that will pay that rate ) creating a liquidity squeeze for these small and medium sized banks . The bigger picture is even if the FED putting a sticking plaster on the wound the these banks will bleed slowly to death over the Next 2-5years . It’s a systematic problem now and pretty much set in stone ….. Having wealth in gold , silver and Bitcoin is possibly the only way to avoid the inevitable….. Bitcoin theory playing out beautiful, time & patience will prove satoshi correct . DYOR GLA

Intel chip update.
All the major BTC miners have now released production figures for February and it looks as if the two miners definitely using the Intel chips are the most efficient on the Bitcoin produced per / EH With one recording 91 and the other 90 , the next best miner is producing @ 87 per Eh . As I’m always at pains to point out there are many many factors that differentiate mining companies so it’s not a conclusive metric but probably not a million miles off accurate.
It should also be noted that one of the firms using the Intel chip have said that some issues have arisen in the first two
Months which have yet to be fully resolved.
I will not name the two companies mentioned as I’m invested in both so don’t wish to be accused of cross ramping but the information is widely available to those using Twitter or YouTube .

Big day for the markets today btw , hopefully American inflation comes in soft which will almost certainly signal no more rate rises in the next few months and should put a rocket under stocks and assets, conversely a hot inflation print and it’s down we go . . Bitcoin could very easily be $19k or $30k by the end of March but longer trend of higher lows and high highs is very firmly intact !
GLA

The big American banks GS , JPM in particular are well know for trading against the advice they give to their clients. When they advise sell you'd do worse than to at least sit tight or if your feeling brave buy .
Goldman’s calls on oil have been woeful for years yet there trading desks have made handsome profits out of oil trading which tells us at very least their trading desks don’t take the advice the house strategist give .
I’ve no doubt there’s increased interest in lithium and more mines planned but it takes years if not decades for projects to produce but in the meantime the industry requirements are growing rapidly, such a bearish call from GS is very hard to justify given the outlook imo .
GLA