Member Info for Bitcoinbull

If anyone wonders why Bitcoin is struggling today it’s because the US government have dumped another batch(10k I believe) of the seized Silk Road bitcoins !

Hilarious there trading & profiting from something they are desperately trying to stop , be interesting to see how the SEC and Gary Gensler try to justify that in the upcoming court cases against Coinbase

A few important dates that could move the bitcoin market significantly in the short term -

🚀 Mark your calendars, folks! Here are the potential dates for the SEC's decision on the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF:

🟢 Aug 12, 2023:

Will they accept, reject, or snooze for 45 days

🟡 Sep 26, 2023:

Another shot at acceptance, rejection, or extending the anticipation for 90 days

🟠 Dec 25, 2023:

Santa might bring acceptance, rejection, or a 60-day postponement as a stocking stuffer

🟠 Feb 24, 2024: The final countdown! SEC must make up their mind and accept or reject the application.

🐂 if the SEC goes silent after the final date, it's considered an acceptance. Talk about suspense!

🧸Bear in mind - BlackRock has the power to withdraw the application anytime potentially getting #crypto market REKT

Personally I think ARK may win the race to be the first ETF to be approved.

In addition October 23/24 (2023) could be a a couple of days to keep some powder dry for . Mt Gox will finally start distributing 143,000 BTC that have been recovered back to customers who suffered during the 2013 hack ,potentially flooding the spot market .it’s impossible to say how many of these coins will find there way back into the market but we must remember these coins have at very least 100x ( at current prices) since they were purchased so In many cases the holders are now multi millionaires and will surly be tempted to cash in at least part of their hodl .

Interesting to see the BTC miners are starting to increase spending on infrastructure with many diversifying into related industries while also spreading political risk by locating throughout the globe . It would appear many institutions have woken up to the crypto mining industry’s potential in recent weeks with vanguard increasing their exposure to miners to $560m+ , vanguard are far from alone in gaining a stealth foothold in Bitcoin with most miners having dozens of well known hedge funds and big finance houses appearing on their share registers.

It also seems the manufacturers are stirring with

Jack Dorsey's Block to launch complete set of bitcoin  mining hardware and software "early next year" only time will tell if Jacks attempt to break into BTC mining is more successful than intel’s , that said the listed miner using intels chips are consistently in the top two most efficient BTC miners to report each month .

Anyone in ARB during the summer doldrums of 2020 (3.5p-6p) will recall a very similar pattern to the market currently, small upticks followed by periods when those hard won gains were eroded and new lows tested , positive news was sold into by those who didn’t fully understand the potential or the Bitcoin cycle ,

All to play for but time is of the essence as there’s a clear window of opportunity when miners increase their capex prior to the halving.

Strong rumours SEC chairman Gary Gensler has offered his resignation following an internal investigation into his conduct.

Reading between the lines turning down Blackrock was a step too far from a man who once actively pursued employment at Coinbase not to mention approved said company for Nasdaq listing the issued a wells notice against them .

If this proves to be true expect a raft of ETF approvals in the coming weeks .

The investable assets market is in the region of $400trn it wouldn’t be outrageous to suggest asset managers would allocate an initial 1% to crypto or $4trn , current crypto mkt cap is around $1.1trn , so the possibility of an extra $3trn flooding into the market in the next 12months or so and that’s at 1% allocations, if asset managers were to allocate 2-5% , well I’m sure you can do the maths .

Don’t shoot the messenger but the information has come from several very reliable sources, time will tell .

Unfortunately once again fleecy you show up your lack of understanding of Bitcoin .

Bitcoin miners earn income from multiple sources not just mining Bitcoin, it’s very probable that the majority of miners will continue as going concerns well after all Bitcoin have been mined, as Bitcoin adoption and usage accelerates transaction fees will become a lucrative income stream .

The myths regarding whales is just sheer lazy research , we can see from on chain analysis the overwhelming majority of LTH have sold very few if any of there originally stack in fact many continue to stack on pullbacks.
In many cases those with an agenda against Bitcoin include exchanges & miners when trying to claim whales are selling, clearly both these cohorts do buy and sell on a regular basis as part of there day to day business .
Current BTC holders as @ 6pm 14/04/23

Miners 9.7%
Exchanges 12.7%
Humpbacks (5k+) 13.3%
Whales (1k-5k)18.4%
Sharks (500-1k)6.6%
Dolphins (100-500) 11.8%
Fish (50-100) 4.7%
Octopus (‘10-50) 8.9%
Crab (1-10) 9%
Shrimp ( below 1)4.9%
As we can see from the above list Bitcoin is actually far more evenly spread amongst its holders than any other commodity / currency…. Another win for Bitcoin ;)

The governor of the Bank of England says it is considering whether to raise the level of protection for savers.

Time to short HSBC & Lloyds again me thinks , the cracks are getting wider in the fiat Ponzi , I’ve little doubt they’ll manage to plaster over them again for a while but long term the sands the footings are built on are washing away.
Signal is stronger than noise unfortunately far to many listen to the loudest voice in the room .
Bitcoin solves this .

Fleecy in 5..4…3..2……

The bigger picture

Ppl need to take a bit of a step back from hourly/daily correlation between BTC & QBT , look over a 12 month period.
QBT intra day low from memory was .88p so nearly 100% gain to the current price of 1.7p
Bitcoin bottomed out at $15.5k (depending on which exchange you use )
Now at $30.3k so 95% up .
There’s little doubt imo QBT’s shares are currently very closely correlated to Bitcoin when you widen the time arisen to the weekly .

Really nice consolation in the $30k range btw , I may well be proven wrong on the pull back to $28.5k before taking off to $40k but only time will tell
Have fun peeps

That makes sense virtual postman , thanks for the info.

All I can tell you is according to short tracker the shorts in TM1 are down to .5% , last time I checked (last Thursday) the short positions stood at 3% , so I suspect someone has got burnt and closed the majority of their position because it seems there’s only one trade open . Almost certainly whoever is claiming to be short is not been truthful.

Interesting and encouraging to see that 3% shot positions in TM1 is now down to .5% !
It must of been a painful week for them let’s hope that pain continues…. SQUEEZE!!!!!!!

CPI comes in softer than forecast Bitcoin rockets in reaction!
Just be careful, this often happens as folk get over excited initially then the reality sets in when various FED speakers pour cold water on expectations.

Early reaction looks bullish.

Have fun folks

There you go yet again Fleecy , have you not heard the term not your keys not your coins ? In other words if you keep coins on exchange or market place they become susceptible to hackers , something that’s simply not possible if you keep them in a cold wallet.
Think of it like keeping Gold in the bank , it’s liable to theft , if you keep it home ….. it’s still liable to theft ! Unlike Bitcoin;) another win for Btc .

If memory serves me correctly the hacker set up multiple accounts and identities on Silk Road in order to gain trust from Ross ulbricht which ultimately meant he could hack the system. The US government gained the coins as part of a plea bargain .

And yet again Fleecy you manage to expose just how poor an understanding of Bitcoin you really have !

Please explain to us all how a government can take Bitcoin from anyone without the seed phrase that unlocks their wallet ????

Ffs give it up , I’m actually embarrassed for you most of the time .

I’m very far from knowledgeable on geopolitics but my take is that both Russia and China smell blood , they both see a weak US administration and a financial system that’s built on sand .
I think China will continue to antagonise Taiwan in order to send a clear message to other nations in the area who’ll need to pick there sides carefully, Japan seem to be moving away from America financial influence, it would appear even closer to home macron is hedging his bets which will surly cause tension within the EU .
Both the Russians & Chinese have been stacking gold , silver and most importantly rare earths for 10 years or more in preparation, I fear us in the west have been brilliantly outflanked , this is why I feel it so important folk learn about the banking system and take control of their finances preferably outside the clutches of governments .

Quite a nice discussion on Doc Holidays Twitter spaces podcast again this morning about TM1 , one female contributor was very knowledgeable.
Whilst not a huge audience (150 listening ) they are all small cap investors so potential shareholders. Also many are tweeting about TM1 so word is getting out about the potential.
GLA

From there it’s extremely difficult to say , it’s possible the price keeps going up as FOMO really kicks in and we have favourable macro conditions, it’s equally likely folk take some profits and we drop 20-25% and tread water until the halving in April 2024 .
Short term I called $28.4K a significant break with $30k-$31k the target before a retest of $28.4K which would flip it from residence to support then a pop to $40k (ish) So far so good , the halving tracker is performing beautifully.
GLA
DYOR as my posts are little more than lucky guesses ;)

Bitcoin
There are now several bullish drivers for Bitcoin price appreciation over the remainder of 2023.
The dollar appears to be breaking down as more & more nations move away from the petro dollar standard, the worry thing for the USA is even friendly neighbouring nations seem to be abandoning the $ standard.
We also need to factor in it’s pre-election year in the USA ,meaning the FED will not only be under fiscal pressure to cut rates and revert to QE but huge political pressure in order to boost the economy & give an election feel good factor for the incumbent government.
It’s clear that America in particular is cracking down on what they perceive to be unregulated exchanges ( funny how they refuse to create regulation so these exchanges can actually implement them though ) but the bullish case would point to the likes of Blackrock, GS, JPM , melon bank offing crypto services not to mention Nasdaq joining the party in Q2 There also a raft of large institutions in Europe about to be offering crypto services. The Chinese market will also reopen via Hong Kong in June I believe.These are all serious players who will have sounded out there respective government before pushing ahead with crypto trading .
There’s also the shift LIBOR to SOFR in June which could be the final bomb that blows up the remaining small and medium banks as it exposes there derivative positions and could well be the prelude to the CBDC
The remaining factor which I will keep a little closer to my chest is a chart that many macro analysts utilise in order to determine when the business cycle is about to turn , Bitcoin tends to front runs this cycle slightly (which perfectly explains its strength so far this year ) but the correlation is very clear over Bitcoins life , the other useful chart is the halving tracker which is less accurate but nonetheless very helpful.
The bearish case realistically is a black swan event , which by nature is difficult to even guess at but when we look at possibilities a hot conflict with Russia can’t be entirely ruled out especially in the lead to a US election in 2024 ,many won’t recall our war with Argentina which gave Mrs Thatcher a landslide victory despite very poor economic conditions in 1983 , what wars tend to do is take attention away from problems on the doorstep and focus the masses attention elsewhere meaning they get behind the incumbent government no matter how poorly there performance.
Let’s hope this particular possibility doesn’t actually occur!
Clearly the US regulators seem hellbent on cracking down on Crypto but I believe they government in the states have inadvertently shot the regulators in the foot by starting to sell the Bitcoin they own , think about it ,how can they make something illegal having dealt in it themselves?
Looking at the overall picture I believe a new ATH is a possibility during 2023 ( probably in the July-September period)

And as I keep pointing out to you Fleecy , 13years , 27000 attempts and still nobody has replicated Bitcoin and now never will .

Very interesting you keep repeating Bitcoin has no intrinsic value, I wonder what the intrinsic value of gold is , it has very little industrial use , it’s not easily transported in any meaningful amount, governments keep confiscating it , it’s a very poor form of money because it’s not easy to divide into useful amounts , the fact is gold like fiat is little more than a confidence trick - it’s been valuable for 5000 years so it must be valuable.
Bitcoin on the other had can’t be confiscated, is easily transported, has growing utility with the advent of layer 2 , it’s a mathematical equation that’s can’t be changed , it has no counter party risk .
Btw I have an allocation to gold via sovereigns , mainly for the tax benefits but I’m very much aware gold does very little over the long term other than keep it’s purchasing value .

I wrote last week about $28.4K been a pivotal point short term for Bitcoin. If I’m honest the way it was moving I expected a rise to $30k+ over the following 72hours ( that still could happen) I did find it strange that having flipped the $28.4K from resistance to support we didn’t continue the short term upside momentum.

A few pieces of news have trickled out which potentially explains what happened .
The SEC requested an Additional $2.4bn in order to regulate crypto
Prominent senator Liz Warren announced she’d be running for the 2024 election on an anti crypto manifesto.
But by far the biggest news was the US government sold 10k bitcoin it had seized from Silk Road , it looks like they still have 41k in cold storage. The interesting thing is if the US government decided to sell its bitcoin and not just hold them in cold storage surely this makes banning Bitcoin in the USA even more unlikely as the government have potentially jeopardised there legal case by themselves dealing in Bitcoin.

I still think $28.4 is a highly significant short term level and given what we now know it’s pretty impressive bitcoin is bouncing around in that $27.8k -$28.6k range , it would appear the bears including the US government are desperately trying to defend the top end of the range .
Only time will tell if we can break out , short term I’m cautiously optimistic, medium term confidence is high , long term conviction is bullish.
Enjoy Sunday folks ;)

It would appear on the 1hour & 4hour charts the $28.4K resistance has been flipped to support , I’d like a little more confirmation via the daily and weekly charts but so far we are looking good . A daily close above $28.4k should give the green light for the bulls to attack $30k over the next 72hrs or so , expect some pushback @$29k & $30k as the bears try to make a stand .
My base case remains Bitcoin gets to $30k-$32k before retesting $28.4K then shoots to $38k-$40k over the next 50 days or so .

Holding that $28.4K on the daily gives more confidence, the weekly close above would give a high level of conviction on those price targets .

Just a bit of fun folks ,don’t take my TA as gospel, I’m often wrong but thankfully not as often as I’m right ;) DYOR !!!