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From there it’s extremely difficult to say , it’s possible the price keeps going up as FOMO really kicks in and we have favourable macro conditions, it’s equally likely folk take some profits and we drop 20-25% and tread water until the halving in April 2024 .
Short term I called $28.4K a significant break with $30k-$31k the target before a retest of $28.4K which would flip it from residence to support then a pop to $40k (ish) So far so good , the halving tracker is performing beautifully.
GLA
DYOR as my posts are little more than lucky guesses ;)
Bitcoin
There are now several bullish drivers for Bitcoin price appreciation over the remainder of 2023.
The dollar appears to be breaking down as more & more nations move away from the petro dollar standard, the worry thing for the USA is even friendly neighbouring nations seem to be abandoning the $ standard.
We also need to factor in it’s pre-election year in the USA ,meaning the FED will not only be under fiscal pressure to cut rates and revert to QE but huge political pressure in order to boost the economy & give an election feel good factor for the incumbent government.
It’s clear that America in particular is cracking down on what they perceive to be unregulated exchanges ( funny how they refuse to create regulation so these exchanges can actually implement them though ) but the bullish case would point to the likes of Blackrock, GS, JPM , melon bank offing crypto services not to mention Nasdaq joining the party in Q2 There also a raft of large institutions in Europe about to be offering crypto services. The Chinese market will also reopen via Hong Kong in June I believe.These are all serious players who will have sounded out there respective government before pushing ahead with crypto trading .
There’s also the shift LIBOR to SOFR in June which could be the final bomb that blows up the remaining small and medium banks as it exposes there derivative positions and could well be the prelude to the CBDC
The remaining factor which I will keep a little closer to my chest is a chart that many macro analysts utilise in order to determine when the business cycle is about to turn , Bitcoin tends to front runs this cycle slightly (which perfectly explains its strength so far this year ) but the correlation is very clear over Bitcoins life , the other useful chart is the halving tracker which is less accurate but nonetheless very helpful.
The bearish case realistically is a black swan event , which by nature is difficult to even guess at but when we look at possibilities a hot conflict with Russia can’t be entirely ruled out especially in the lead to a US election in 2024 ,many won’t recall our war with Argentina which gave Mrs Thatcher a landslide victory despite very poor economic conditions in 1983 , what wars tend to do is take attention away from problems on the doorstep and focus the masses attention elsewhere meaning they get behind the incumbent government no matter how poorly there performance.
Let’s hope this particular possibility doesn’t actually occur!
Clearly the US regulators seem hellbent on cracking down on Crypto but I believe they government in the states have inadvertently shot the regulators in the foot by starting to sell the Bitcoin they own , think about it ,how can they make something illegal having dealt in it themselves?
Looking at the overall picture I believe a new ATH is a possibility during 2023 ( probably in the July-September period)
And as I keep pointing out to you Fleecy , 13years , 27000 attempts and still nobody has replicated Bitcoin and now never will .
Very interesting you keep repeating Bitcoin has no intrinsic value, I wonder what the intrinsic value of gold is , it has very little industrial use , it’s not easily transported in any meaningful amount, governments keep confiscating it , it’s a very poor form of money because it’s not easy to divide into useful amounts , the fact is gold like fiat is little more than a confidence trick - it’s been valuable for 5000 years so it must be valuable.
Bitcoin on the other had can’t be confiscated, is easily transported, has growing utility with the advent of layer 2 , it’s a mathematical equation that’s can’t be changed , it has no counter party risk .
Btw I have an allocation to gold via sovereigns , mainly for the tax benefits but I’m very much aware gold does very little over the long term other than keep it’s purchasing value .
I wrote last week about $28.4K been a pivotal point short term for Bitcoin. If I’m honest the way it was moving I expected a rise to $30k+ over the following 72hours ( that still could happen) I did find it strange that having flipped the $28.4K from resistance to support we didn’t continue the short term upside momentum.
A few pieces of news have trickled out which potentially explains what happened .
The SEC requested an Additional $2.4bn in order to regulate crypto
Prominent senator Liz Warren announced she’d be running for the 2024 election on an anti crypto manifesto.
But by far the biggest news was the US government sold 10k bitcoin it had seized from Silk Road , it looks like they still have 41k in cold storage. The interesting thing is if the US government decided to sell its bitcoin and not just hold them in cold storage surely this makes banning Bitcoin in the USA even more unlikely as the government have potentially jeopardised there legal case by themselves dealing in Bitcoin.
I still think $28.4 is a highly significant short term level and given what we now know it’s pretty impressive bitcoin is bouncing around in that $27.8k -$28.6k range , it would appear the bears including the US government are desperately trying to defend the top end of the range .
Only time will tell if we can break out , short term I’m cautiously optimistic, medium term confidence is high , long term conviction is bullish.
Enjoy Sunday folks ;)
It would appear on the 1hour & 4hour charts the $28.4K resistance has been flipped to support , I’d like a little more confirmation via the daily and weekly charts but so far we are looking good . A daily close above $28.4k should give the green light for the bulls to attack $30k over the next 72hrs or so , expect some pushback @$29k & $30k as the bears try to make a stand .
My base case remains Bitcoin gets to $30k-$32k before retesting $28.4K then shoots to $38k-$40k over the next 50 days or so .
Holding that $28.4K on the daily gives more confidence, the weekly close above would give a high level of conviction on those price targets .
Just a bit of fun folks ,don’t take my TA as gospel, I’m often wrong but thankfully not as often as I’m right ;) DYOR !!!
’ve been banging on for months that the bull run will start in April/ May it’s been as clear as day to me on the halving chart ,that said you could very much make the case the bull run started with the near double bottom in November when we rested the June/July bottom , it’s basically open to debate .
What the chart is telling me is we should trade in a range for the next month or so $26,400 - $32k expect a run @ the $30k-$32k range before a pullback to around the level we are at now , then a nice rise from $28kish to $40k + by June / early July.
Obviously the macro conditions are very different this time around but potentially to the upside, I expect the FED to be forced to pivot within 3 months possibly even having to cut by up to 100bps , they’ll also be forced into pumping more cash into the system reversing the QT of the past 11months and reverting back to QE . It’s a reasonable bet other central banks will be forced to follow the FEDS lead as the system breaks under the strain of current policy which will be very bullish for Bitcoin.
Probably not wise to get wildly bullish on BTC price just at the moment but when you consider what the authorities have thrown at crypto in the past few weeks BTC resilience is frankly remarkable. What I will say is I think I’ve undercooked my end of year target of $38k-$42k , I’ll get the abacus out later and have another look at a few targets for end of year and cycle peak .
Have fun peeps , the bull is just snorting and pouring the ground, when he runs people will flee ;)
Signal over noise any day !
People have been trying for 13yrs to replicate Bitcoin using computers and code in fact there have been circa 28,000 attempts thus far , it’s simply not possible because of Bitcoins first mover effect, Bitcoin is now backed by the biggest computer network the world has ever seen!
The commodities you list have value perceived of there currently scarcity , nobody can put a figure on how much of anyone of those elements exist above or below ground , so actually there value is little more than guesswork. We absolutely know the total amount of Bitcoin that will produced .
So Fleecy seems to accept the banks are riddled with corruption and shady dealings , that’s a start .
You also appears to accept Bitcoin is a commodity ( he’s little choice been as the SEC & CFTC have signalled it as such ) commodities valued by scarcity for instance gold been relatively rare and difficult to mine having greater value than coal which is more common and generally speaking easier to mine .
I wonder if fleecy can name another commodity where the maximum supply is known and the difficulty to mine that asset continues to increase driving efficiency and better environmental practices?
In fact why not name another commodity that’s more environmentally friendly to mine as well ;)
As for the turd cover in gold analogy , I’ll bow to your expertise in such matters because you sure do talk a lot of Sh##
Bitcoin is unstoppable & inevitable xx
Dear Fleecy You seem to be struggling to distinguish between an exchange and the underlying asset . I’m not entirely sure if you are muddying the waters deliberately or if you simply don’t grasp the difference. I’ll pose you a question, name us one , yes just 1 tier 1 bank in ANY major western country that HASN’T been charged /fined for money laundering or manipulation of markets . Maybe other posters would keep asking Fleecy that question until he gives us an answer, because until he does his biased against Bitcoin is totally irrelevant. Bitcoin is a commodity , it’s completely different to the rest of the crypto eco system this really is crypto 101 , likewise understand that an exchange is not the underlying asset been traded . Have a good day Ya’ll ;)
Potentially massive win for Bitcoin today !
In the lawsuit filed today CFTC v Binance holdings and CZ the CFTC clearly states that Bitcoin is a commodity!
So that’s the two major finance agencies SEC and CFTC accepting BTC is a commodity and NOT a security. This will surly mean BTC will get the same/very similar tax And regulatory treatment as other commodities.
I did warn that the authorities would go after crypto in order to attempt to stop a flood of money leaving the traditional finance , we’ve now had a week of crackdowns , almost certainly there’s more to come . I’m not trying to say I told you so , it’s far more about awareness and spotting signal over noise .
Lines of support to watch
$ 26,420
$25,200
$24,380
$24k
$22k
I’ll stick my neck out and say we hold the $26,620 .
Oh and one for floppy or whatever his name is , there have been 580+ banks collapses since 2009 in that time Bitcoin just keeps going despite apparently been pronounced dead on dozens of occasions.
Remember watch the signal , ignore the noise .
Have fun ppl
Unfortunately Addi I think ppl should build that possibility into their calculations, it would certainly be prudent not to exceed the £85k that’s guaranteed by the government with any one provider .
I won’t give to many details but I took a short position in HSBC around 9 days ago , it proved quite lucrative , I transferred the funds from a well known CFD platform ( that’s listed on the LSE) back to a big high street bank on Friday morning and then tried to transfer a sum to kraken to buy more Bitcoin, that transaction was refused and my account is currently frozen ,they did allow a similar sized transaction to a British based bullion dealer just prior . Very strange as I regularly send money to kraken admittedly mush smaller amounts though .
Just imagine a banking system so broken only a complete reset could save wests economies.
From that think of how much easier it would be to collect tax and distribute welfare if the new system was digital
Now consider how efficient that new system would be if all the small banks / building societies were swallowed up by a handful of mega banks controlled by government.
Now imagine central banks setting policies that created a situation where those small banks couldn’t survive.
Consider a system so Orwellian that citizens could only hold $10k-$20k maximum before the government imposed a higher rate of tax forcing you to spend the money in your account.
Thus meaning it was near impossible to grow personal wealth .
Ladies and gentlemen I give you my crackpot theory on WEF’s plans to introduce CBDC …….. am I a crazy conspiracy theorist possibly.
Now imagine there’s a decentralised alternative , with a fixed supply, backed by the biggest computer network the worlds ever seen , easily used , a system that can’t be manipulated via government policies.
Now if this alternative to CBDC is not a threat and doesn’t expose the CBDCs for the tool of manipulation they actually are ,why won’t the authorities give clear regulation so exchanges can abide by them ? Instead they continually attempt to crack down on bitcoins on and off ramps because the truth is you can’t actually stop Bitcoin legitimately but you can in the short term make it slightly more difficult to buy and sell in some areas ( all that actually does is move exchanges based from one area to another)
Just a little food for thought ;)
The strength of Bitcoin over the last 24hours has been truly remarkable when you consider all that’s happened.
25bps rate hikes in US & UK
Arrests in the US of crypto influencers / promoters
SEC coming out and warming US citizen’s against investing in crypto .
Warnings sent to Coinbase from US regulators.
I hinted previously I thought a short term drop to $24.5k was very possible, yes we flash crashed initially $800 and then later close to $26,600 but to regain all that ground so quickly in the face of such a FUD storm is miraculous !
To me it shows folk are waking up to central bankers BS , does that mean we can’t fall again , not at all but it should add a degree of confidence that folk are starting to understand the systemic problems in the traditional financial system and allocating part of their wealth to Bitcoin and gold .
The snow drops crocus and daffodils of spring appear to be flowering !!!!
FED As we thought the FED raised 25bps last night . Now the interesting thing is all indications are that inflation in the US is set to return to normal or even go deflationary by late summer , so why did the FED raise knowing that it will send More banks to the wall in the coming days / weeks ? My suspicion is they want everyone in the USA banking with a handful of mega banks so the FED can exercise more control over the banking system and roll out there CBDC . Anyone watching Bitcoin @6pm last night as Powell spoke will have seen the $800 drop in a minute followed by an immediate recovery this was odd because all day buyers were equaling sellers and soaking up sell orders with ease. Two stories emerged in the following hours an SEC letter to Coinbase regarding Alt coins but the far bigger story was the arrests of Actor Lindsey Lohan, rapper Akon, Soulja Boy and several other celebrities were also charged in the scheme for illegally promoting Sun's crypto assets.I’m. Short the Authorities seem to be trying to kill crypto with a thousand cuts , they could simplify introduce regulations but they know once they do that it totally legitimises Bitcoin by making a clear distinction between it and shhh1tcoins and sends it to the moon . The game is warming up , it’s more important than ever you understand the difference between Bitcoin and the rest of crypto . Expect short term volatility but be reassured the higher lows and higher highs are firmly in place .
Keep a close eye on the FED rate decision today , many expecting a pause Which is one of the reasons Bitcoin has performed so well in the last week , personally on the balance of probabilities I think a .25% is likely. That’s very likely to knock stocks and Bitcoin in the short term but will undoubtedly lead to more small and mid sized bank failures in coming weeks which will just reinforce Bitcoins adoption.
Remember it’s all a game , the central banks are trying to keep a broken system alive by sweeping the mess under the carpet, a rate hike today is simply about saving face to those who believe talking heads , my bet is Powell will be forced out inside 6months & or there will be an emergency 100bps cut in the same time frame.
In the short term some nice consolation just below the $28.4 residence ( which if I’m honest I didn’t think would be that strong ) a pullback to $24.5k (over the next 7days)is possible on a rate increase today especially if it spooks the wider market ,I’d only expect a pullback for a week or two maximum as any rate hike breaks more banks so definitely hold your nerve , we all want a rocket ship but it’s important to refuel along the way .
It looks like traders are really getting stuck into the banks across Europe this morning.
Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) -7.8%
Barclays (BARC LN) -5.5%
Commerzbank (CBK GY) -5.0%
BNP Paribas (BNP FP) -4.5%
ABN AMRO (ABN NA) -3.0%
NatWest (NWG LN) -3.0%
Santander (SAN SM) -2.9%
Will the FED pivot on Wednesday ? Market still seems to think 25bps rise some even thinking they’ll go 50bps , short term that would hit Bitcoin but it present a huge buying opportunity because the central banks are attempting to bluff the market, we all know the games up and they have absolutely no option other than to change direction which is very bullish for Gold ,Silver and Bitcoin.
The central banks are holding a pair of 6’s ( which in fairness is stronger than Fleecey’s 3’s )
holding
silver QQs
gold KKs
Bitcoin KKs
Nothing in life is a certainty but by taking the time to understand the Macro you can definitely put the odds in your favour .
DYOR
Deutsche Bank is strongly rumoured to be the next brick in the fiat banking Ponzi to fall , IF this happens the whole of the European banking system is in trouble, absolutely certainly that the ECB will be forced to reverse policy and pivot the rate hikes and restart QE .
Smart money pouring into Bitcoin currently, gold and silver should also spike tonight as trading begins.
A word of caution though , expect a lot of FUD towards Bitcoin from central bankers as they desperately try to stop folk fleeing the fiat Ponzi .
Also some wild wild predictions from influencers trying to push s%%t coins , most of these coins are as bad as traditional finance . Stick to Bitcoin.
I’ve long been of the opinion that it’s effectively impossible to stop Bitcoin ( the only way would cause world wide chaos that would cause such widespread death and destruction authorities simply wouldn’t sanction it )
That opinion has now changed , I believe Addi’s predictions/ bjullishness can also stop Bitcoin- in evidence I give you the $150 drop since his post @ 11:46 . With respect fella shut it , or at least get bullish on HSBC which I’m shorting ;)
Exactly !
And once the penny drops it’s obvious why central bankers keep trying to smear Bitcoin, it exposes the true Ponzi .
Very little resistance $25k -$29kish expect the bears to make a stand just below $29k , we could find it hard to break $30k as they’ll desperately try to defend the $29k-$30k areas but I think the weight of really smart money who realise the banking system is F’d no matter what authorities tell you will win out over the next few days / week … longer term gold /silver /Bitcoin have to be in everyone’s portfolio who’s even vaguely clued up .
I won’t post one of my long winded essays but what I will say is if you do nothing else over the next 7days try to find 2hours to grasp a basic understanding of the current fractional reserve banking system, I’ll let you come to your own conclusions about it .
What I will say if you take those two hours out to educate yourself it will pay you back multiple fold over the next 2-5years
Bitcoin to $30k by end of the month , very possible but it’s never a straight line .
High lows and higher highs is all you need to concern yourself with ;)
GLA