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The current price movement in BTC is near textbook, exactly what we need to see , legs up then consolidating just below the next important technical level , let’s see if the Friday pump comes again this week , my hunch is it will providing there’s no major news of FTX / genesis contagion. A pump to $24.5-$25k. Is likely if we are following the 2016 model, if it’s the 2012 cycle then don’t get freaked out by a 25-30% pullback over the next 4-6weeks .
Just my reading of the charts and history, I’m probably wrong but it’s possible I’m right .
Interesting to see QBT potentially mining Alt coins .
This is a strategy other miners employ In order to maximise efficiency or extend machines lives , it has both advantages and potential disadvantages imo .
What it does mean is QBT will almost certainly have to set up a trading desk in order to maximise potential profits, realistically selling Alt coins mined and buying Bitcoin because we know from history Alt coins tend to have there day in the sun before blowing up spectacularly , from memory 94% of Alt coins in circulation in 2014 have failed the test of time and no longer exist .
Alternatively QBT could mine and sell straight to market for cash but that would be an incredibly risky strategy as your very much a hostage to the current market conditions, if you set up as a miner the strategy has to be to accumulate Bitcoin which we know over a full cycle goes up .
The next RNS will be interesting, FG needs to put some flesh on the bones he’s been throwing to the market, that said the quality of the research team is impressive.
And there we have it , the Friday pump is back ! Will it hold ….. hard to say but there’s some big rumours regarding GBTC which if true could really put in some very solid foundations for the next leg up . .
TA should only every be used as a guild as it’s based on a probability using previous price action.
We should also consider many popular TA analysts have an agenda to generate traffic/clicks . This is true of bearish and bullish forecasts .
One of the bears champions- Gareth solowsy is widely considered to be accurate , but ppl fail to point out he called $20k BTC when it was @ $48k that looks a genius call until you realise BTC went to $68k first so if you went short @ $48k you’d have been rekt following his advice.
I myself said BTC would hit $140k during the last bull run based on previous cycles although more conservative than many I was still woefully out , I did manage to call the peak late Nov -early December21. Back in the March of 21 .
My point is both bulls and bears tend to exaggerate there stances and middle ground tends to be the wisest place to position.
The price action action in Bitcoin over the last couple of weeks is very reminiscent of the late 2020 early 2021 run , almost parabolic moves to the upside then a period of consolidation just below important technical levels, Fridays used to be pump days when new levels would be reached . My own theory was because institutions would take positions on Friday so they’d be covered over the weekend, also retail would be pumping cash in on paydays.
Personally I still think it’s to early to call the start of the bull run this is more likely a relief rally, but if it continues the FOMO will kick in and who knows .
A hold above $21465. Could see $23.5-$24k in short order
As long as we hold $18.5k on any pullback we are ok . .
Btw the Friday pump would always start early afternoon GMT as the Americans got into there offices ….,, fingers crossed!
Have you returned to twitter , I’ve spoken to our German friend in recent days , just wondering if you’d had a change of heart and gone back ?
We have a contributor on this BB who very much reminds me of the school yard bully who’s bunked off for a while only to return to find a beautiful new girl he’s fascinated by but simply doesn’t understand anything about her . So instead of adopting an open mind and learning what makes her tick he’s decided to go on the attack , not realising with every word he utters just pushes him further away because they expose his lack of understanding and naivety , this new girl has many imitators but none will ever have her network effect , the computing power , army of nodes , scarcity or protocol , the bully just seems stuck in a bygone age believing all he’s told by the old school propaganda machine who very much have a vested interest in keeping the status quo . No doubt in years to come the penny ( or sat ) will drop with the bully but by then the beautiful girl will have developed into a wonderfully mature woman and will be further from his reach than ever .
Not really my style to block folk as I very much believe in freedom of speech , however fleabag or whatever his name is really is a special case . Comes on a BB about a company involved in a Technology he clearly doesn’t believe in ( understand) then try’s to convince everyone else there wrong about the underlying tech ….. absolutely priceless
If we can hold $21206 that’s very encouraging, we seem to have decent support @ $20600 -$20800 with the bulls defending that area , the bears seem to be trying to hold $21k. But much like $40k in jan 21 the bulls are not going away .
IF we can hold $21206 the halving tracker suggests a slow move to $23k over the next month before a much more powerful jump in 40-60 days , we currently appear to be following the 2016 cycle quite closely if a little early …. A word of caution however in the 2012 cycle we did something similar before pulling back 30% .
FG needs to make his next RNS count , personally I think it’s all about timing if you want a big run , news released in April / May could have a dramatic effect as long as it’s The information the market has been waiting for .
Having bought in heavily to certain listed miners in November only to see them drop 30% during the following fortnight most are now up 150%+ which highlights the potential and pent up demand as many retail investors want exposure to Bitcoin but lack the Tech skills to buy and self custody.
GLA
Intels new chips are now live and mining, initial indications are they are producing an efficiency gain of around 20%, more accurate figures will probably be available in March when February figures are released, January’s figures will need to be taken with a pinch of salt as there will inevitably be teething problems.
Nice rise in QBT this week so big congratulations to all those who either held through or bought at the lows , I have to say I thought 1.5p would provide more resistance as well as the 1.72-1.79 area . Clearly traders and investors are looking for a way to ride Bitcoin via the stock market in the same way they jumped on Argo .
Just a word of caution, Bitcoin needs to hold $19.5k but ideally get above and hold $21.5k , we’ve come a long way very quickly this rise is reminiscent of Jan 21. When we went parabolic only to have a 30% pullback over a 14 day period ,admitting that was in a different phase of the cycle but worth bearing in mind .
Monday morning should be interesting for QBT if BTC can hold the gains , exciting times for holds , just remember to take a little off the table from time to time .
As I previously suggested 1.5p is the battle ground here , an end of week close above 1.5p would be a solid base for a move to the 1.72-1.79p range , the shares retested the 1p level and bounced which is a positive, id have seen .42- .45p very much in play if 1p had been lost .
Should be interesting few weeks , not much BTC on exchanges but still worries about exchanges to keep in mind , maybe one more flush to $14k but we’re not fare off the winter thaw now .
GLA
The Bank for international settlement has drawn up rules allowing central banks to hold Bitcoin & crypto on there balance sheets from 2025 . This follows the EU draft bill for cryptocurrency which due to be passed into law during the next session of parliament and will actually became law in 2024 . The uk has already signalled in August 22 that Stablecoins to be brought within regulation paving their way for use in the UK as a recognised form of payment..
I realise the readership of the Daily Mail will still insist Bitcoin and crypto has no future , But it’s nice to see 100M+ current holders of Bitcoin will soon have regulatory frameworks that will provide clear differentials between various forms of coins and therefore weed out the scams .
Slowly then suddenly;)
It’s looking increasing likely that Fiji will be the next country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender , there pro Bitcoin PM has tabled a motion which could be passed in the next few weeks .
Slowly then suddenly ;)
I’m personally of the opinion that the lack of regulation is a deliberate ploy , those who understand Bitcoin know the only chance of stopping it now is to destroy it from within ( destroy confidence) allowing all these ####coins and dodgy exchanges helps authorities undermine BTC but fortunately I think there’s to many who actually grasp Bitcoin to allow it to be destroyed.
Things appear to be stabilising with some of the miners I felt were in grave danger of going bust , in the past week or so core scientific, Argo and marathon all seem to have been handed lifelines by lenders who clearly believe in Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining, this to me suggests that there’s still plenty of money prepared to back Bitcoin. When you think about it if these lenders didn’t see a bright future for BTC why would they lend money secured against effectively warehouses in Rural Texas.
Hands up I did think Bitcoin would push to $20k by Christmas / new year and it looked on track [got to $18.5k just before the fed blew everything up ) , I’ve still concerns about binance which could really plunge us down to $14kish but remember these are exchange issues and not problems with the underlying asset of Bitcoin.
Hopefully ppl will start to grasp Bitcoin has genuine value whilst 99% of **** coins are nothing more than scams used to create businesses built on sand ( FTX been a fine example) .
Happy new year all .
Bitcoin $38k-42k by end of 23 , a steady rise starting April/May
QBT taken over at around 6-8p
BEN -( the market needs to get over its anti fossil fuel stance and wake up to reality) and BEN could easy 5-10x
POW -very hard to value but a really nice portfolio of assets in commodities that are currently hot .
JLP- could rocket or could flop , in theory the hard yards have been put in , very much a play on the copper shortage / economic recovery.
Flipping heck it’s quiet on ohere has addi been kidnapped by elves or has he pickled himself on the eggnog?
Bit of seasonal fun , 2023 predictions-
What price will Bitcoin end 2023
What price will QBT end 2023
Give 3 other companies to watch in 2023 .
Just a bit of fun so no name calling or dismissing others opinions please .
Massive miss on USA CPI
The market is getting very excited , even talk of a .25% raise tomorrow, personally I’m still in the .50% raise camp .
BTC should run strong now , flew through the $17,585 residence, I’d expect a few retraces on its way to circa $20k but the big question is now can it form a new support in the $19k-$21k range ( which we traded in for weeks prior to FTX ) on bullish point is many institutional investors were using The FTX exchange to go short on BTC , there funds are now frozen but more importantly it’s become very difficult for institutional funds to short Bitcoin- short term bullish !!!!!
A lot of speculation regarding Binances financial position over the past 24hours , I have absolutely no idea either way , but the advice is very simple NOT YOUR KEYS NOT YOUR COINS, get your coins off exchanges and into you’re own wallet.
BTC seems to be shaking off the speculation & concentrating on FOMC on Wednesday- if we see a slowdown to a 50bps rise it could well signal a push to $20k BTC in the next few days provided there’s no issues with binance …… if we do get problems with binance expect a big dump in BTC price , but please remember all these exchange issues are because of bad business practices and not the underlying Bitcoin.
China still has circa 21% of the current hash rate !
USA - 38%China - 21%Kazakhstan - 13%Canada - 7%Russia - 5%Germany - 3%Malaysia - 3%Ireland - 2%
Figures accurate in sept 2022 .
China bans many things doesn’t mean they don’t happen in China .