Member Info for Billyboy2fromiii

Hi Vas,

Yes, my calculations are just a framework which we can tweak as necessary. As you say, hopefully we are being conservative at two units per day. In addition, I think we are being realistic as regards roll-out using 500 stores per day. Working on 7,500 by 31st March 2022 seems to be within the RNS quotes that we have been given.

Much prefer to be conservative and realistic rather than some of the rubbish you read on here.

On the basis that we do receive the quarterly updates, it also help to identify if things are NOT going to plan.

As you know, I am a little dubious regards AATAC. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong. What would really light the fire here, is if one of their (apparent) national partners (such as Seven 11 (I have a soft spot for Seven 11 following my many visits to the States when younger)) agreed to stock Chill. That would be akin to the Fevertree "Waitrose moment" that you alluded to over the weekend. If you get a chance, have a read of the early Fevertree trading statements from 2015/16. Let's just say the wording was a bit of a clue as to how well things were going! Missed opportunity for me!

BB2.

contd....

interim results 1st April 2021 to 30 Sept 2021 $5,720k revenue
full year 1 April 2021 to 31st Mar 2022 $16,760k revenue

Obviously all complete guesswork using numerous assumptions. However, with the promise of quarterly sales reports it will be possible to compare sales and revenue (against expectations as per roll out guidance) a bit like above.

BB2.

Vas,

Good post. I wouldn't disagree with your suggested figures......

Taking it a step further...

RNS states 2,000 stores in April (end of). Expected 3,500 by July (lets assume end of July) so adding 500 stores per month (which I believe is in line with previous RNS). And lets also assume continue to add 500 stores per month till Dec, total 6,000 stores (I am not 100% sure when the 10,000 target number is expected to be hit).

Working on your two units per day per existing store and each new store takes a cabinet of 48 units......

June 2,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($750k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $870k rev
July 3,000 existing @2 units per day @5 revenue ($900k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev($120k) equals $1,020k rev
Aug 3,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,050k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev($120k) equals $1.170k rev
Sept 4,000 existing @2 units per day @5 revenue ($1,200k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $1,320k rev
Oct 4,500 existing @2 units per day @5 revenue ($1,350k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $1,440k rev
Nov 5,000 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,500k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev($120k) equals $1,620k rev
Dec 5,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,650k) plus 500 new @48units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $1,770k rev
Jan 6,000 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,800k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $1,920k rev
Feb 6,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,950K) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $2,070k rev
Mar 7,000 existing @2 units per day @5 revenue ($2,100k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $2,220k rev

So Q2 2021 rev should be $340k (April) plus $1,000k (May) plus $870k equals $2,210k
So Q3 2021 rev should be $1,020k plus $1,170k plus $1,320k equals $3,510k
So Q4 2021 rev should be $1,440k plus $1,620 plus $1,770 equals $4,830k
So Q1 2022 rev should be $1,920k plus $2,070k plus $2,220k equals $6,210k

So interim results 1st April 21 to 30

Morning,

Looks like Craig has deleted his account.

Shame, genuine guy.

Obviously family issues more important presently. Hopefully he will be back.

BB2.

Vas,

You sold out?

What has made you sell ?

BB2.

Somerset.....

Unfortunately, 156 posts today of mainly drivel. However, you did ask a question at 07.50...

My understanding is that pack retail at approx $10 of which ZOE receive 50%, so approx $5 per pack.

Zoe have, I believe, stated their longer term profit margin is approx 50% ($2.50 per pack) but in the short term more like 30% ($1.50 per pack). That is my understanding but happy to be corrected by others.....

Happy to help, BB2.

Andy,

Do you not think that Happy's ridiculous question earlier was not an attempt to hype ???

Congrats to all those that have already multi-bagged !!!

BB2.

Blackdog,

The gap still obviously exists (as per Vas previous posts) and could be filled (especially should we get a general market downturn on pending inflation etc).

I have increased my holding today with funds that I am happy to commit for five years and funds that I am prepared to lose. Should the sp drop to fill the gap, then so be it. It is a known risk but one that I am happy to take. I have already stated last week that my tolerance for loss, in this share, allows for a drop below 43p. If it did drop to 43p on general market conditions, then not really a worry. If however, it drops to 43p due to specific ZOE news (lack of sales/revenue etc) then I would obviously reconsider my position here and probably accept a 50% loss.

BB2.

CONTD....
In my opinion, the confirmation of quarterly sales reporting was equally important news. It is this quarterly reporting that will show how actual sales and revenue figures are going forward compared to previous quarters.

A small positive step forward today but many more steps required over the coming months and years for ZOE to deliver on the much hyped multi-bagging opportunity that others are happy to ramp at every turn.

BB2

Cappella,

The mcap of ZOE (and hence the sp) was already factoring in the EXPECTED 3,500 stores by July. If you are expecting to be in 3,500 stores then naturally there MUST be some revenue to stock these stores.

lot of the "red sells" are probably buys but nonetheless a lot of selling of ZOE today.

In addition,

Fevertree started out in 2004. Took ten years to get to flotation in 2014.

BB2

That should read.. As at 31/12/2014.... not 2004.......

BB2

Bigbadbob,

As at 31/12/2004, Fevertree had revenue of £34.7m (£23.3m 31/12/2103) with a mcap of approx £199m and were distributing to apprx 50 countries.

They had listed in Nov 2014 with an sp of £1.65 with a macap of approx £190m.

By 31.12.2015, revenue was £59.3 with a mcap of approx £692m.

BB2.

As already stated, I do believe the Chill brand has some potential (not so sure about the CBD oils etc) and this is why I have invested/added. However, VERY early stages.

If anyone has time, it is well worth going back to read the Fevertree RNS from Nov 2014 and see how they developed as a Company. The trading updates were the clue (which I and no doubt you?) ignored. The story does show that there is plenty of time to buy into ZOE if they begin to show repeat store sales, with increasing revenues etc.

BB2

Tobler,

You are beginning to look a tad silly now.

"continuing to post drivel".... I do not think our comments can be called drivel. Take a look at "30% rise, 80p by close" etc.

"effect PIs having a chance to make some money".... do you really believe this? Anyone that makes investment decisions (buy or sell) based upon chat on a BB, perhaps should not really be invested in the first place.

"How many sold out... over the last few months".... Anyone that sold over the last few months at £1+. 90p, 80p, 70p can now buy back (with some confirmed revenue figures at last) at 65p. Not a bad trade, that!

Perhaps you need a break from this BB? Why not have a break and come back in July when the next update is due?

BB2.

Vas,

That is what is interesting but do not know....

Obviously the orders are from the distribution partners rather than stares direct. So it could be for the distribution partners to supply further stores with initial stock or it could be to resupply existing stores with additional stock. We also do not know how quickly the distribution partners will use up the stock received. For example, the distribution partners would have had some stock as at 30th Sept. We have been told of an order placed in October and have now been told of orders in April and also May. The next update will hopefully show how quickly (or not) the May order has been used up.

In summary, a step in the right direction today but plenty more meat on the bone needed to really understand actual sales and follow on sales etc. A positive step today, but the rather muted market response also tell a story....... Certainly not a "30% rise" or "80p close" or "gamechanger" RNS as some have mooted.

Happy to have added today and will hold pending further more detailed news.

BB2.

Vas,

The quoted spread is 65/68.
The actual spread is 65.45/65.9.

Morning Vas,

Thank you for your detailed post. The best post so far today.

Without doubt, great to get a revenue update. Much better than having to wait until results in July (as previously stated). Equally important imo is the confirmation of quarterly sales figures going forward.

Your comments regards orders/sales are vary valid. To hit the EXPECTED 3,500 stores by July, then obviously there should a good number already "on board", so 2,000 by end April sounds about right. These stores would need initial stock (a case holds 48 units I believe , so approx $240 revenue to ZOE per store (@$5 per unit to ZOE)). As you say, what we do not know yet is how well the actual sales are going, and if this is then resulting in REPEAT orders. It is repeat orders rather than initial orders that are important going forward.

As already stated, I have added this morning and will continue to monitor closely going forward.

BB2.

........$1m not £1m.........

Morning,

At last, some revenue figures! Also, equally important to me, confirmation that ZOE now intends to report its sales on a quarterly basis.

The $340k in April is indicative of an initial supply of a case of 48, at $5 revenue each, to approx 1,500 stores. The £1m in the first two weeks of May is more interesting. What we do not know is whether this is to provide initial stock to more stores or to replace stock at existing stores. Time will tell on that.

As per my stated strategy, I have today doubled my holding in ZOE by adding £6,250 at between 65p and 66p. I said that I would add when revenue confirmed, and I have added today.

I think BOB is correct, this disclosed revenue is probably already priced into the sp. Hence, why you can currently buy on AJ Bell and HL at 65p but cannot presently get any offers to sell..... Very early days and I will add more as and when ZOE show that sales and revenue are increasing.

For the record, I now hold £12,500 ZOE.

BB2

Invest8,

Thank you for posting. I welcome all opinions.

As for AATAC, I have not been convinced about them. If they are such “a player” , I would expect that their website would at least be up to date etc.

Bearing in mind your comments, do you think that the CEOs have been “taken in” by them? The Company’s RNSs are pro AATAC. So, bearing in mind your comments, either they have been “taken in” by them or they are using “poetic license” with the writing of the RNSs.

Interested in your thoughts, bearing in mind your background.

BB2.