Member Info for Billions

I would take £1. Trick is not to be greedy. In my experience the deals are never as good as those touted by BB buffet wannabes.

Seriously at £35 someone needs their head tested. No grasp of reality and just makes a mockery of a quality investment.

Please talk sense!!

Bellers, you just agreed with my point. Your hypothetical house will be based on similar house valuations in the street or area. If they are all worth 100k how can you put a value of 1m on yours. Doesn't make sense right.

These deals are based on discounted expected cashflow and profits. If the DFS says EUA assets can generate billions in cash flows and profit similar to Sibyane without any outlay then sure someone will pay is 15bn, it is possible.

Sibyane stillwater 2020 report. This is what a 15bn company looks like:
https://thevault.exchange/?get_group_doc=245/1613632402-sibanye-stillwater-H2-YE2020-presentation-18feb2021.pdf

Eua may end up being at this level but will takes years and many millions for it to reach there. Hence any sale will be benchmarked against the likes of Sibyane but with a heavy discount. Again this is part of the DFS. Really wish management would publish this to make is clearer.

Yes Monmuzard you are correct. The SS mcap may even be $15bn, see different figures in different places.

They have 82m oz reserves and 477m oz resources and they are a derisked and generating billions of cashflow. Unfortunately Eua need to demonstrate extracting and selling of the resources to be valued fully.

A couple of billion is still my estimate. If Dmitri can get more than he is the best salesman to have lived

If I remember correctly it is nearly the 2 year anniversary of the suspension and nomad debacle. Hard to believe a deal could not be done in this time frame however complex.

Its a shame they are able to hide behind the FSP, if this was a regular offer period the deal would have been done ages ago.

Then again this is Russia after all.

From a tangible fact perspective Sibanye stillwater had profit of $1.2bn last year. They have a market cap of $8bn.

I would love it if the deal was in multiple billions but the whole world must be missing a trick apart from a few visonary posters on this BB.

Thanks Tigra, Indeed it will be many multiples of the current price hopefully.

Good luck to everyone.

Tigra, a very sound point well made. It illustrates my point really, without a DFS there is no viability of measured reserves, mining volumes, costs and investment etc.

Which means everything on this BB is guesswork with extremely limited information available to the public.

I like to look at comparable transactions, other value multiples some just dream up numbers.

But this is what makes the market.

A little more realistic. Around 7000x 2019 revenue. Makes Tesla look like a bargain!!!

Fair point. I was just a little flippant with 50p. Agree 70s would be a realistic base which is approx 50% premium from the all time high.

In a perfect storm scenario maybe a £1 to £2 deal may happen but things really would have to align.

Look at the recent Chinese buy out of burtica, npv of the project was 900m and the buy out of 1bn. The dfs is based on measured resources and not inferred. So in the case the unsubstantiated 28m resource estimate does not figure in the calc.

Sorry for popping the bubble, but someone has to call out the idiocy here.

The reason why it's taken so long is only clowns, maybe like a couple on here, would make an genuine offer without a DFS. Now that its here, I expect the deal to be cleared by end of this month.

I feel some people lucked into this investment (me probably included) and have no real grasp of share prices, market cap and reality.

£50 is nonsense. This implies a market cap of over 150bn which is much greater than Anglo American, Glencore and Antofagasta combined.

In reality anything between 50p to £1 would be a jackpot.

It's been pretty stable for a while to be fair. On the flip side this is the reason for the low cost and dividends.

Gold creeping up and better management should help the sp going forward.

Hey Tiger. Very good point. The aim bubbles are frightening. I feel with lockdown everyone is now a day trader just fuelling the fire further.

I also was looking at CEY vs HGM. With CEY higher production and outlook I think a price of around 180 would be fair.

I think the geo political factors may always hinder performance.

I really wonder why the share price is not multiples of the current level.

I'm really trying to understand how CEY is at the same valuation as GGP. Any thoughts?