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1. Dont think this kills the fsp. My thoughts are this is the deal but could be the future plan. would have been nice for the rns to clarify. Still pending on the takeover panel website.

2. Further follow up rns may be coming Monday.

3. Could be speculated that the govt put a spanner in the sale process and wanted to keep the asset under own control.

4. In isolation this is game changing. But the investors looking for quick exit my be unhappy.

5. There will be costs either debt or equity raise at some point. The 40bn figure is made up. But it wont be small change.

The discount is to reflect that its not proved reserve as well. So does not completely disappear.

With regards to the point of comparing gold to pgm with the latter more desirable. I don't buy this. It's about the return and payback that a buyer can generate. If gold/copper is giving a 30% irr with a 3 year payback. The attractiveness of a pgm project with a lower irr and longer payback caps the price.

Taken quite a while. 1st offer was end oct. Which was rejected along with subsequent offer. This is the 3rd/4th revision.

Now 50% above price before first bid. The offer is still considered low ball. Demonstrates that buyers are not going to pay over the odds.

I think the MT flanks are already included in the ACF price.
The big value here will come if eua can convince the buyers of the 40moz resource and show that's it not just marketing.

Atm shareholders don't have insight of which resource figure to value this on.

Spot on the with debt crabby. Different beasts. Kaz has a 8bn infrastructure spend to bring the russian licence into production.

They paid 900m and will cost them 8bn. This will produce 400koz gold and 300k tonnes copper. This does make EUA look really good in comparison.

Crabby I think the common theme with hgm, tsg and kaz is that the shareholders were peeved with the offers.

Hgm especially was a steal.

Comparing to KAZ does not help imo. 4bn is approx 1.20 for eua. But KAZ had EBITDA of over 1.4bn last 2 years. It will take eua a while to get to this level.

technically its not Russian as well. But the Baimskya licence which kaz purchased is in Russia and massive upside which is pretty much being discounted in the purchase.

Lastly, shareholders rejected 2 low ball offers. This is promising from an eua perspective when shareholders get a vote.

Er yes. Makes more sense than imaginary 8 week time lines that everyone was clinging on to.

What surprises me here is that so many seem to be in a little bubble without care for what happens in the real world.

The interesting aspect here is the time lines:

Nov - The project was acquired initially by GNP. Who then raised funds.

Nov- Jan. RMP agreed a binding offer (HoT) to acquire GNP. Share suspended.

Mar - details released to market.

So 5 months start to finish. 3 months for a binding offer. Eua have to be very close at this point.

I don't believe negotiations should take this long whatever the deal.

If I was to hazard a guess, some sort of nod or confirmation may be needed from the Russian mining authorities to proceed. This would explain the delay and inability to quantify the time line.

Doesn't always work like that. Look at Sirius which was a world class resource, bought out on the cheap burning many PIs, I expect there were crazy price targets on these BB at the time.

As most have stated, this is a guessing game. For context the biggest deal of recent years was newmont acquisition of goldcorp. This was at $10bn. Would love this deal to be around this level but unfortunately that's just too optimistic.

The 40m is very speculative and is and extrapolated figure for which EUA don't currently hold licences. 15m is the cadastre figure but would need substantial proving up before any mining can happen. So from a buyer perspective there is a degree risk to the transaction. This is why the sp is range bound until further developments are known.

Long9. You are in the right ballpark I feel. The range is indeed very wide depending on whether you use 2m, 15m, 40m oz for the resource. The latter figures will be heavily discounted in any calculations.

Sensible view stockable. Unfortunately not many here like to listen to reason and market based observations. They much prefer random number generators.

Clowns with a calculator. Its laughable that the spot price matters. How is that supposed to work, change the deal every day? Yeh but no but... up today down tomorrow.

Partypooper you are spot on. The daily price fluctuations have zero bearing on the deal value. Long term average projected prices will be used and i believe these are around 1750.

Spot prices are another fallacy that some like to hype.

Yes this is the problem. We don't have the reference point for resources which ranges from 2m to 40m. With TSG at least it is a JORC resource.

On the same page 80p to 100p is my thoughts.

Just trying to show something tangible to benchmark against rather then some of the farcical numbers that are being made up.

TSG. Has over a billion in ground resource value, had an offer accepted today for 1/10th of that.

Shareholders feel short changed, this highlights the Russia risk perfectly.