Member Info for bigspike

Knoc sell 10% of Dana’s share of Tolmount. M&A is hotting up in the southern North Sea!

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/295009/knoc-seeks-sale-of-10-of-dana-stake-in-tolmount-project-report/amp/

New tax regime: The key change. Broadly, the PIB looks to shift fiscal take from profit taxation towards production and price based royalties. The current petroleum profit tax will be replaced with a new hydrocarbon tax and the application of companies income tax (which previously did not apply to oil production). The hydrocarbon tax would apply to crude oil, condensates and natural gas liquids but not associated / non associated gas.

Nigeria’s Upstream Petroleum Sector: Looking Back at 2020 and Looking Ahead in 2021

https://www.natlawreview.com/article/nigeria-s-upstream-petroleum-sector-looking-back-2020-and-looking-ahead-2021

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/293638/dana-withdraws-platypus-project/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/293638/dana-withdraws-platypus-project/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

A structured deal that ticks the right boxes for a turn around asset. Definitely excited about gas to power!

https://youtu.be/y5bgiR-stKk

Despite shell selling their share of 45% of OML 17 recently they remain committed to Nigeria including the domestic gas market. 20 year deal announced today.

https://thewhistler.ng/shell-seals-gas-supply-agreement-with-lagos-ogun-industrial-customers/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Widely acknowledged as one of Africa's most influential business leaders and philanthropists.
Nigerian entrepreneur and investor Tony Elumelu owns a controlling interest in Transcorp, a publicly traded Nigerian conglomerate with interests in hospitality, agriculture, oil production and power generation. He came into the limelight in 1997 when he led a small group of investors to take over a small, floundering commercial bank in Lagos. He turned it profitable within a few years and in 2005 he merged it with the United Bank for Africa. That banking group now has subsidiaries in 20 African countries and in the U.S and U.K. Elumelu also owns extensive real estate across Nigeria and a minority stake in mobile telecom firm MTN Nigeria, among other assets.

As private investors we way up the risks in savannah energy working in countries like Nigeria & Niger, I thinks it’s worth looking how other companies are investing in the region and see who are taking similar risks and look at their previous success. One company that’s really showing their hand recently is Transcorp Plc. Not only are they buying up power stations in Nigeria they are also buying significant oil and gas divestments with the intent of integrating the 2, taking full control by supplying fuel gas to their own power stations and building oil production aswell. Many consider Savannah’s Nigerian asset as high risk given the previous history with seven energy and the Nigeria power value chain in general, but given Tony O Elumelu recent led investments via Heirs Holdings & Transcorp power he’s seeing growth, perhaps some can take comfort knowing successful entrepreneurs are also investing in the same industries. Transcorp power has recently bought Afam power & AFam fast power. Transcorp Affiliate, Heirs holdings just took 45% in OML 17! Do your own research but one thing is for sure Tony O Elumelu is successful.

https://www.heirsholdings.com/heirs-holdings-significantly-expands-oil-and-gas-portfolio/

“We see significant benefits from integrating our production, with our ability to power Nigeria, through Transcorp, and deliver value across the energy value chain,” the graduate of Ambrose Ali University, Ekpoma, Edo State, said.

https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2021/spdc-completes-sale-of-interest-in-oil-mining-lease-17-in-nigeria.html

Transcorp Plc who recently acquired Afam power and Afam fast power have made another acquisition

https://transcorpnigeria.com/heirs-holdings-significantly-expands-oil-and-gas-portfolio/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PjXDrP5OG0&feature=youtu.be

Time for AK to get the Niger show on the road! Where else can you find a good old fashioned conventional basin with the potential of 2.8B bbls of prospective resource that can be produced with technology used in the 70’s/80’s! Finding costs of $2/bbl, NPV of $6/bbl and 80% COS, B/E $26/bbl.

Still on for 7GW by the end of 2021

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2021/01/04/1-6bn-for-power-upgrade-ready-for-disbursement-says-fg/amp/

https://youtu.be/ZRzXIpHsOqA

Interesting article on the Siemens Nigeria power development plan. short term, 2021 is planned to tackle the low hanging fruit, debottlenecking, improving transmission and distribution enabling capacity to build to 7GW. 11GW by 2023, 25GW by 2025, clearly aligning completion with other high profile projects such as the AKK gas pipeline (already 15% complete), moving gas from the south to the north.

2018 delivered success by Siemens in Egypt, where the company delivered a mega 14,400 MW power project in 27 months! It looks like Siemens will offer a funding package for the proposed works in Nigeria but of course it’s not without challenges. Siemens wouldn’t be taking this project on unless they were confident in getting their return and according to this article the works started in November. Siemens Nigeria have the capability to deliver everything from power generation, transmission and distribution to the end user metered supply.

https://www.icirnigeria.org/special-report-why-nigerias-electricity-woes-will-remain-despite-siemens-23000mw-target/

When you compare the following country power generation capacities you can clearly see the growth potential in Nigeria. With the 9th largest gas reserves in the world, 4th largest if resources proved up as well, what savannah energy have in its accugas facility is an incredible opportunity of near term growth. Even at the proposed 25gw, power generation remains low in comparison to developed countries. As power generation reliability improves so will industrial power demand.

China. 5,682,000,000MW
USA. 4,324,000,000MW
India. 1,368,000,000MW
Japan. 995,000,000MW
UK. 338,000,000MW
Nigeria. 5,000MW

For 2021, the changes are smaller. The lower Lafarge gas contract volumes are mostly offset by the higher gas price, but revenue falls 3% to US$215m and EBITDA by 7% to US$154m.
Capex rescheduling and the deferral of the Uquo gas well into 2021, alongside the acceleration of the Accugas compression facilities, result in 2021 capex rising to US$78m. We estimate this leaves end-2021 cash of US$77m, with net debt falling to US$374m.
All else equal, our risked-NAV and price target rise 6% from 49p to 52p/sh. It must be stressed that our NAV still does not factor in any additional gas contracts beyond the current three take-or-pay contracts. With first gas deliveries under the new FIPL contract expected to start next year and another gas sales agreement with a significant new industrial customer being finalised, our NAV is still biased higher.

Ndphc looking to build an additional 2GW capacity, what’s good for them is good for savehttps://tribuneonlineng.com/ndphc-to-complete-four-nipps-with-2000mws-combined-capacity/amp/

This is a major step forward. Niger Republic has some excess products which needs to be evacuated. Nigeria has the market for these products. Therefore, this is going to be a win-win relation for both countries.”

https://nairametrics.com/2020/11/19/just-in-nigeria-niger-republic-sign-mou-on-petroleum-products-transportation-storage/

According to the breakdown, Geregu Power Plant would be sold for N140.7 billion, Omotosho Power Plant N151.4 billion and Calabar Power Plant N143.4 billion.
The government explained in the document that the proceed from the three power plants will be paid into Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC)

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/11/fg-to-sell-geregu-omotosho-calabar-power-plants-for-n434bn-next-year/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Taken from results

“COVID-19

We are taking measures to mitigate the business impact associated with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which has sadly emerged this year. Whilst the pandemic continues to present challenges across our workforce and suppliers, we have continued to run our operations continuously. However, we have witnessed some short-term impacts on our supply chain and planned work programmes particularly where overseas vendors and contractors are required to make visits to install and commission equipment.”

Part of the $45m capex was allocated towards work on the compressor. Given the need for specialist vendors likely to be mobilised from other country’s there’s a good chance the planned work will be delayed into 2021 imo. Record production flows & solid running were achieved this during 2020 so clearly the CPF & wells have continued to perform strongly. A stronger financial position is always welcome, no pressure on supplying additional volumes until after new customer contracts have been agreed. AK will be in control....