Member Info for bigspike

The question for me is, if Alveras fails it’s integrity test will they go through with a side track? I hope not!

When GJ was referring to the cost of Alveras only being 10% of a New well, I believe he was referencing 10% of the cost of a dry hole well. Eme only have 33% of that!

I was referring to expected dry hole drill costs, see link. 15:30mins. https://youtu.be/RbEkJkTNSFs $3.2m Dempsey $6m Indonesia $12m Offshore China Hear from the horses mouth! Back up your posts Rathole, I have!

I haven’t had chance to review the annual report yet but will do. Rathole, what does that cost cover? That’s considerably more than forecast, must be more than drill costs. $20m for drilling China, you’ve piped down a little, you were spouting $40m a couple of months back! If I recall correctly, Gaz Bisht mentioned $11m for a drill offshore China on a you tube interview. I’m hopefull of a JV, don’t think a placing will fund all of this.

Johnny, ere you are.... https://m.soundcloud.com/user-246928730/episode-7-sacgasco-managing-director-gary-jeffery Alveras 6:20 mins, “could cost as little as 10% of a new well”.

Email GJ, he’s normally obliging with his replies. If the well integrity isn’t good then they will consider a side track but this is more expensive so may not even happen? The podcasts are posted on sgc twitter so you might find it... it was a few months ago.

I think Dempsey only cost about £3/4m. California is one of the cheapest places in the world to operate, wells in the shallow formations can cost as little as £1m. The gas in the area is dry and pipeline quality, doesn’t need a process plant just piped directly to sales. The abundance of infrustructure in the area and the supportive regulation makes this area very cheap to operate and that’s why even the smallest reserves and flow rates prove to be commercial.

There assessing the integrity of the existing well. If all is ok, they simply e log it and then perforate and flow test. I think GJ has said in the past the cost of this is very low, I recall it was once said about 10% of a new well cost to assess potentially 2tcf. This came from a previous podcast...

I didn’t comment on the Empyrean results a few days ago as they are even more irrelevant than usual especially as the company is in serious transition but always happy to make a mention. With a three pronged attack the company are now looking at the USA, China and Indonesia for growth and each has its own merits and timescale. In the US the Dempsey discovery has come onto production but I am still of the view that production is a touch disappointing, I understand that some fraccing is likely in the tight reservoir but look forward to hearing what TK thinks about it. In Indonesia the company announced recently that in tandem with partner Conrad Energy, EME have put together a development plan for their Mako gas discovery in the Duyung PSC and with 2C resources of 373 bcf a profitable JV should emerge. In China we heard some time ago that very promising early work on block 29/11 could mean another significant amount of upside. EME shares have under-performed lately, mainly I imagine as Dempsey is proving somewhat disappointing compared to the excitement whilst drilling, having said that the sp is in no way an accurate representation of the portfolio that Tom Kelly has put together, it may just need some patience.

Yes share is abysmal, how’s yer stop loss rathole?

It's inevitable they'll be a raise at some point. Can't see China drill costs being fully funded via a placing though plus there's joint venture interest in mako. I'm hopeful of a deal coming, then a raise. Management have good skin in the game.

Losses? Not made much recently but I haven’t done too bad out of eme. My finger is hovering over the button to buy more. GL to you too.

“Mako is a very large gas accumulation with a lateral extent of approximately 340 km2. With the addition of the Mako South-1 well, four wells have now penetrated the shallow Intra Muda Formation, but Mako South-1 is the only well to have been production tested.” Lateral extent of 340km2, yes needs further appraisal drilling to prove full reserve. You can’t say it doesn’t have potential, mako south flowed under restricted testing equipment. 3 other wells drilled into mako proved presence of gas! As for Dempsey this is in a long term production test. When the time is right and on success of the ongoing studies Dempsey will be fracked. I often agree with some of your points rathole but you post unbalanced views, very negative and some dishonest and untrue. Keep it up and you’ll be banned on the lse soon too....

According to Conrad petroleum “Duyung PSC Duyung PSC (1,145km2) is located in the West Natuna Basin, Indonesia, one of Asia's most prolific proven basins. Water depths range from 60 metres to 100 metres which only require jack-up rigs with associated drilling depths as shallow as 1,700 feet. This PSC is located in a highly strategic location, surrounded by the West Natuna Transport System, supplying natural gas to Singapore and Indonesia with both gas export and oil production facilities within 20 kilometres from the PSC.” In addition to the mako gas field and mako deep, there are further prospects with up to 2TCF potential. Fields can be tied back to existing production facilities more than 20km away, so not stranded at all rathole!

Hardly stranded its next to a pipeline, but yes more drilling and development required to prove up reserves and bring to the market. Eme will sell prior to field development so those costs will not be an issue but the prospects in the psc offer a compelling investment with a good chance of further value creation to share holders. We now know about the mako deep prospect, perhaps this can be tested with a drill that can also prove up more of the mako reservoir. With only 10% of the psc the costs of drilling one well to prove 2 reservoirs offer pretty good upside. They have a lot of data from the 4 wells already drilled in the mako field, all showing gas....

Indonesia is a premium gas market, with current pricing at around US$8/Gj. The country has embarked on a 35,000 MW power acceleration programme, which is expected to be 35% fuelled by gas. The nation is already constructing LNG import terminals to top up supply from dwindling domestic sources and is expected to be a net gas importer from 2022.

The opportune time is now rathole. Coro energy and upland resources also see potential. https://total-market-solutions.com/2018/06/20/indonesian-oil-gas/

Ongoing evaluation of this data has identified a significant exploration 'lead', named Mako Deep. Whilst Mako Deep is named due to its proximity below the Mako Gas Field, it is in fact relatively shallow by industry standards at 2000-6000ft below mean sea level. Mako Deep is likely to contain well developed thick sand packages as proven by the Tengirri-1 well (drilled by Conoco in 1975). Provisional initial estimates show that Mako Deep has the potential to contain very large quantities of recoverable hydrocarbons, both oil and natural gas. Seismic interpretation, and analysis of the cuttings of the old Tengirri well are underway to further delineate and de-risk this exciting 'lead' for potential future drilling that could be executed sometime during 2019.

Following a technical presentation by Conrad in London recently and in the lead up to the submission of the POD to SKKMigas, there has been several approaches by third parties interested in participating in the Duyung PSC. Whilst no transactions have been concluded, the level of interest in the Mako Gas Field is encouraging.

I’m not expecting much from the workovers but This part of the world has fantastic economics and regulation to support this industry. Experienced local industry experts, supportive local service companies, existing infrustructure so these wells will be generating positive cash flow and this is significant to a tiny company like rbd. The new wells are targeting areas of the reservoirs that are expected to be undrained so improved flows should be encountered with those. New wells only cost around $1m so I’d expect the workovers to generate enough cash flow over a year to fund a new well.