Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The problem is if they drill deeper at this stage, high chances the hole will collapse. Hence they want to test what they have before drilling further which is the safes way to do things.
What I am gutted about is they are not able to test the top of the basement. That would have been interesting. Even on discovery from the Karoo, the SP might not rise past 10p as the real commercial quantity might be in basement.
We are in week 8 of this 2 week drilling program. Not ideal.
We are over 2 years in and still don't know whether we have commercial helium down the hole or not.
This is our 3rd drill in Tai. A wise man once said the definition of insanity is you try the same test over and over again, expecting different results. When will we move away from Tai for god sake. Clearly this place is jinxed.
Spot on. I have quite a lot invested in HE1, probs will lose most of it now (just think luck isn't with us and hole will colapse, without any wireline taking place). Don't shoot me, just my gut feeling, but I remain invested due to potential of discovery should all go well. I invested for the long term shareholder value creating POV, not just for one drill.
So despite me being resigned to the fact I will lose most of my investment here, I am confident in TIME, I can recoup the investment and more on other diversified investments. In fact I already have.
Key is, you can lose on 4 out of 5 investments, but the 1 you win on could cover your losses plus more. I am not just talking about picking individual shares, but also funds, NSI, property investments etc etc.
GLA
@joe, that's my worry. The longer they leave it, the greater chances the hole collapses. I wish I was a trader, I could've clawed back my initial investment by selling/buying/selling/buying all the swings over the past 2 months, but I'm not.
Stuck too deep to mid teens. Just have to hold and hope for the best.
2nd drill is not happening. Look at the weather forecast for Tanzania. Focus should be doing a wireline on Tai and if that is a success, any subseqent raise will be 10p plus one would imagine. For now, 100% focus needs to be on Tai.
Exactly. Now the risk here is if the well becomes unstable and starts to deterioate. Then the whole thing would have failed. So remains extemely risky at this stage. For long term holders, again no point selling at these prices. Very painful indeed. We just need one discovery so we can get out at mid teens
If we can get to 7p to 8p range before wireline results, then on results day, if it's a psotive, the SP will increase by at least 30% to 40% one would assume. That would give us an SP of 10p to 11p (£100m market cap).
At which point, if wireline results are positive (i.e. a high chance of discovery), surely the market will move away from "do we have an asset or not" to "what is the tai asset worth".
By moving the discussion to what the tai asset might be worth, this will then create substance to value the company appropriately. Who would bet against a value of £200m (21p) based on tai being a success case and further de-risking the entire basin?
"The common question that you hear - “when’s the SP going back to 10p?” - is pretty funny, as it would entail a market cap that is 30% higher than it has ever been."
Lol I think you will find in 2021, when the SP was at 27p, the market cap was £170m odd. So 10p (i.e. £100m market cap) will not be the highestes it has ever been. Please do some research before writing such things
Agreed RJ, next week will be make or break. If wireline says we have a discovery, then 90% chance the official lab results will back this up.
If wireline says we don't have a discovery, then 90% official lab results will concur and declare no discovery.
No ifs, no buts.
Watch out for the phrases "Free gas was encountered" or "no free gas was encountered".