Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Yeh same going to try and sell up and move on. Drilling companies is basically a coin flip despite all the research
Bad luck twice in two drills now.
Terrible news today, as this hugely indebted cinema chain has now lost a big legal case. It looked insolvent even before the adverse judgement, and by my calculations doesn't have enough cash on hand to pay the legal damages. With over $5bn in gross interest-bearing debt, equity holders look very vulnerable to being wiped out either completely, or through a discounted equity raise. Massively risky, I think the equity is worth nothing. Bargepole. That said, it was propped up by the lenders last year, and 4-bagged from the lows (a surge that has since dissipated). So who knows? A share only for reckless gamblers, not investors.
Lets me honest, this is small change being invested at these prices. DM who only has circa 200k shares, wow, a lot of PIs will have more than that.
Either way I think this purchase was done to show "skin in the game" by the directors, at a time when needed. I'll take it for now, better than them selling I suppose.
DM having only 200k in here does worry me slightly. I know the performance related options he was supposed to receive had we stayed on plan with the 3 drill program is now up in smoke so what has he exactly got to lose I ask.
Where’s the news everyone was talking about? I expected this to reach IPO price by now.
what news are you expecting next week exactly? Interested to know what other news we are waiting. Sorry pretty new investor here and done as much research as I can but what are we expecting in the immediate future?
BP
What a ****e month August has been for me, very costly. End of July, I was sitting on a decent profit in my PF and all profits wiped out in a matter of 1 month.
Add to that, car MOT, service and insurance bills always come around in August. Add to that, the weather has been shocking. What a terrible month indeed.
With regards to HE1, any LTH (those with averages above 10p imo), well we all have a long autumn and winter ahead of us now. The SP will drift lower week by week and as volumes dry up. Volumes will pick up in Q1 2022 on news regarding drilling etc. This is surely a long term play now with many risks.
However that being said, if one of my other shares do hit the big time and could multi bag, I will be selling most of the HE1 investment and try t recover my money as soon as I can. If not, then best to hold on to these shares.
You win some, you lose some.
BP
Just stop saying that. Yes there are helium shows that have been identified and bubbling in the water but as of yet, the helium is all mixed with brine and no free gas has been encountered. The whole Ruka basin could be helium in brine who knows. We need to stop saying "the is helium there, we know it we just need to find it".
TC James noticed helium surfing to the top and now we are drilling for it, we are not finding any free gas so the whole thing could be a complete waste of time, who knows. But as of yet, there is no proof that helium gas is there. For newbies looking to invest, just bare that in mind as I wouldn't want you all to get sucked into the Helium story when things are pretty risky now.
I need this to 5 bag minimum this year really
So first of all, feel for all the LTHs here, of which I am one now. I don't mind Tai-2 being a duster, its a risk I took when I invested and so it hasn't paid off. You all also know that I was very miffed after Tai-1 failure and was upset by it. Not because it was a duster, more because I felt like I couldn't trust DM with his over optimistic stance on things.
Tai-2 was a lot more professional, limited news and the aftermath handled properly. I suspect Ian had given a help in hand with things.
So Tai is a duster, I know they maintain that Karoo cannot be tested but lets be honest, the chances of free gas flowing from karoo has significantly reduced in my books. So as per H&P report, risked value is now 21p. Should the SP be valued at that now, no chance. We will fluctuate between 7p and 8p long terms. Maybe 7p and 10p long term. Either way, it is significantly lower than many LTH averages now, such as 16p for me.
If there are any holder with averages below 7p, it may not be a bad shout to take a massive portion of your investment out at nil gain nil loss.
DM is optimistic about the future, they need to do 2D seismic and identify new targets, those which are shallow and those which are deep and if we're lucky, do a shallow drill in the wet season (Q1 2022). Ultimately, HE1 is now a long term hold, no point looking at this SP on a daily basis waiting for RNSs or price movements. Nothing is going to happen and the damage is done now at 7p-10p long term, can't get much worse until next drill.
Stay strong peeps, not the end of the world, money will always be made and lost, plenty of other opportunities out there in the mean time to keep us all occupied. Hopefully everyone has income coming in or managed to preserve capital in this mighty game of untold riches.
BP
the smart investors have capital to invest in many places. The smart investors will also not sell for a loss especially when there is £10m in the bank for HE1 to continue drilling further early-mid next year at which point the SP will rise back up to mid teens.
Most HE1 that moved over to here have either derisked, not sold but have capital to invest in other companies. This is AIM and 1 good investment can wipe out all the losses of few bad investments.
Typical as when I open a position, it drops red
Yes so PCR tests are selling for silly money but lateral flow tests are very cheap in the £1. PCR you also have to send away.
I view the antibody test and lateral flow test very similarly so wondering if Gov will pace order on mass scale at £33
I'm already invested in here but will not add anymore as very cautious of exploration companies after HE1 experience.
Please don't follow up saying ADV is not like HE1 because of the 95% success rate. We had loads (including myself) at HE1 who were telling others HE1 was different to other companies and how DM is the best CEO on AIM etc etc until things started to go wrong. An exploration company will always be an exploration company until they have proven reserves and in fill production.
Don't invest more than you can afford to lose gurls and boys is the lessen learnt at HE1.
BP
If the price of anti boy test are £32.95 and the gov order 10m units lets say, thats £330m revenue. If we make 35% margin (standard for any supplier), that is £115m margin. I won't work out EBITDA or Profit as not sure on any of this but at margin, even if SP is 3 x margin, thats at least £350m market cap, or nearly 6x current SP.
No obviously why would the gov fork out £33 per unit on anti body tests etc when current lateral flow tests cost circa £1-£1.50 and that is the key question here.
Anyone any idea of potential units we could sell.
KissnCuddle, exactly just hold on. No need to average down or sell. Just hold on and what will be will be. If after the next 3 attempts and full £10 is wiped clean, then you know what we've lost all of our money however we gave it a good go.
Just view it as you've started your own business and pumped in £10k and the business failed. That's all. How many successful and wealthy individuals made a loss/failure. Many! And they all learnt from it.
For those with the right mentality and can act rationally and know what they are investing in, we all will make many thousands for years to come. I just personally get upset when you've been taken for a mug whether intentionally or unintentionally.
But after Tai-2 I am more than happy to keep hold of HE1 as I think DM has handled himself better this time.
BP
Ouch pete - did you lose £42k or 42k shares? I assume £42k, you should never sell at such lose, just hold on. Part of me thinks you're taking the p**s as the low was 5p only for a brief moment and SP never settled at 5p, 6p was lowest. So either you're not telling the truth or you're very unlucky.
Apologies if you really did sell at 5p and made a £42k loss, but it just sounds too extreme
So first of all, feel for all the LTHs here, of which I am one now. I don't mind Tai-2 being a duster, its a risk I took when I invested and so it hasn't paid off. You all also know that I was very miffed after Tai-1 failure and was upset by it. Not because it was a duster, more because I felt like I couldn't trust DM with his over optimistic stance on things.
Tai-2 was a lot more professional, limited news and the aftermath handled properly. I suspect Ian had given a help in hand with things.
So Tai is a duster, I know they maintain that Karoo cannot be tested but lets be honest, the chances of free gas flowing from karoo has significantly reduced in my books. So as per H&P report, risked value is now 21p. Should the SP be valued at that now, no chance. We will fluctuate between 7p and 8p long terms. Maybe 7p and 10p long term. Either way, it is significantly lower than many LTH averages now, such as 16p for me.
If there are any holder with averages below 7p, it may not be a bad shout to take a massive portion of your investment out at nil gain nil loss.
DM is optimistic about the future, they need to do 2D seismic and identify new targets, those which are shallow and those which are deep and if we're lucky, do a shallow drill in the wet season (Q1 2022). Ultimately, HE1 is now a long term hold, no point looking at this SP on a daily basis waiting for RNSs or price movements. Nothing is going to happen and the damage is done now at 7p-10p long term, can't get much worse until next drill.
Stay strong peeps, not the end of the world, money will always be made and lost, plenty of other opportunities out there in the mean time to keep us all occupied. Hopefully everyone has income coming in or managed to preserve capital in this mighty game of untold riches.
BP
@MrST agreed we all just need to focus on other shares and opportunities can come back in 6 months time to re-review things with a clear mind.
Enjoy you holidays, after all family is priceless and money will be made another day.
BP