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ADV had a large success chance of circa 90% if I remember correctly, at least that's what management team communicated anyway.
That turned out to be a duster and they quickly shut up shop. I just hope we get some sort of discover here so I can sell the last bit of money I have left here.
I was invested in ADV and that turned out to be a duster too. I couldn't sell my sales for the past 2 years.
Shares got transferred into BCE with little value. Even if this is a duster, I'll lose very little as the damage was done in ADV years.
Bloooooody cowboys!
Ok I expected a large increase today. Still early in the day so antyhing could happen. One thing for sure, this drill has been rerated down significantly vs 2021.
I am not sure the SP will get to desired exit point pre results of around 20p now. More likely to hover around 11p to 14p during Sep with helium shows.
All in my opinion.
Wow skittish what do I say to that…..
It’s a massive assumption. Could they really withhold information from investors? Surely management would be buying shares left right and centre if they were that confident.
I think once they do final testing of the rig to ensure it is ready to function properly and all parts are working, we will see a huge uptick in SP as that’s my clear signal that we are ready for lift off (spud).
Also Mike/Lorna talk about the fact that after the drill is complete, they will send the gas samples off to a lab before confirming a discovery. I think there might be a window off opportunity between drill being 'successfully complete' to the discovery RNS to derisk.
Also important to note that on discovery, they will suspend the drill and case it up. 'Suspend' sounds negative, not a big fan of terminology used in exploration but hey ho, doesn't necessarily mean bad news.
Our rig can drill up to 2,000m, along with casing all the way down to 2,000m, but I'm pretty sure we only need to go down to 1,200m so hopefully no issues with the drilling work vs 2021 where we had to do a sidetrack and then lost a drill bit or something, followed by a deteriorating hole.
Yes very help thank you. I would say the 'Mitchell drilling' eqivelant RNS has landed as we now have a rig, but the mobalisation of the rig onto the drill pad and the crew news is still to land, along with a confirmed SPUD date. Those 3 elements are outstanding, which will no doubt boost the SP performance.
For new investors, yes they will be sitting on profits. For long term holders, most of us probs average above the 11p-13p mark so still a long way up. I personally average at 13p but holding out for higher to cover some other losses elsewhere.
With the new shares in issue, I estimate the SP would need to reacch 20p to have effectively the same company valuation as previous drill highs of circa 28p-29p. Last drill, we got to 20p 1 month pre SPUD. Taking the same discount methodology due to dilution, SP should've been at circa 13p - 14p currently, but we are trading at circa 9p.
Not an issue for new holders as you will still make money as we run up to SPUD, but for us long term holders, I think this second drill has been rerated down vs 1st drill. I hope we do get towards 20p peak before results as a minimum to allow for appropriate derisking.
News should start flowing through this month, hopefully boosting the SP to mid teens.