Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
So first of all, feel for all the LTHs here, of which I am one now. I don't mind Tai-2 being a duster, its a risk I took when I invested and so it hasn't paid off. You all also know that I was very miffed after Tai-1 failure and was upset by it. Not because it was a duster, more because I felt like I couldn't trust DM with his over optimistic stance on things.
Tai-2 was a lot more professional, limited news and the aftermath handled properly. I suspect Ian had given a help in hand with things.
So Tai is a duster, I know they maintain that Karoo cannot be tested but lets be honest, the chances of free gas flowing from karoo has significantly reduced in my books. So as per H&P report, risked value is now 21p. Should the SP be valued at that now, no chance. We will fluctuate between 7p and 8p long terms. Maybe 7p and 10p long term. Either way, it is significantly lower than many LTH averages now, such as 16p for me.
If there are any holder with averages below 7p, it may not be a bad shout to take a massive portion of your investment out at nil gain nil loss.
DM is optimistic about the future, they need to do 2D seismic and identify new targets, those which are shallow and those which are deep and if we're lucky, do a shallow drill in the wet season (Q1 2022). Ultimately, HE1 is now a long term hold, no point looking at this SP on a daily basis waiting for RNSs or price movements. Nothing is going to happen and the damage is done now at 7p-10p long term, can't get much worse until next drill.
Stay strong peeps, not the end of the world, money will always be made and lost, plenty of other opportunities out there in the mean time to keep us all occupied. Hopefully everyone has income coming in or managed to preserve capital in this mighty game of untold riches.
BP
No point selling this SP today. If you don’t need the money don’t sell at a loss. Hold on to it and wait for the other drill targets. I’m less ****ed off with tai 2 than I was with tai 1 as at least this wasn’t ramped up so I can take the result.
This will settle around 7p to 8p back to what it was start of the year. You will need to wait until spring 2022 for this to make any real movement now. I’ll just be keeping hold of my shares here
I've been watching this SP the last few days, regretted not riding at 40p-45p right before my eyes as I had not any proper research into this comp and the little that I did, I couldn't get any proper figures, hence decided to wait as the Gov were clamping down on covid test suppliers in general and I assumed not every supplier with potential will make it through the procurement process.
I then watched this SP rise to 60p+ in a day and was kicking myself. The following day (yesterday) watched it rise to 80p+ and back down again. Since then been hovering between 60p and 70p. Looks like it will settle around here before any real numbers/details/customer details are announced I think. Initially I thought on pure momentum this SP could 10 bag in 1 month and go towards 600p giving it a market cap of circa £600m which is still possible but really need some numbers to properly value this.
One for the watch list for sure and gutted I've already missed out on the initial rise. You win some, you lose some.
No point looking at the daily trending. This will fluctuate between 12p to 14p until RNS. Nothing any of us can do. Best just to take a break from here. I've personally reduced my contribution on this BB as it's filled with rude posters and extreme rampers/de-rampers with no balance these days.
Also the HE1 media icon showing a new you tube video of a lady covering HE1 and the Sunday Times article. She says we've not found commercial helium but the way she phrased it was as if Tai-1 was a complete duster and I don't think that's true, we just ran into drilling issues and could not test the main reservoirs properly. What this video does tell us is how the wider market have viewed this drill, i.e. a complete duster with no helium prospect. If Tai-2 can prove commercial helium, the rise will be just as good as the drop and we will go past 30p on positive news. Just hang in there.
BP
Noticed this share at lunch time. Was debating whether to put money in at 42p-45p and decided against it as not done enough research on the comp.
Has since gone above 60p so bit annoying for me. Anyone prepared to help and fill in the knowledge including potential price this could rise to realistically.
BP
Some here speculating that big sells mean someone is in the knowhow of how Tai-2 is progressing. Drilling at Tai-2 is still early early days so more likely someone de-risking who's purchased in at 10p or lower and taking a profit along with that.
That being said, this remains a risky play. Drilling in Tai again (20 meters either side) does worry me slightly due to the fizz gas being found when doing testing in one of the helium encounters. Lets see how the next week pans out.
@Seagulls
I accept I was very bullish and apologies if my posts are coming across negative. I am just bringing some balance on this board from my experiences last time around. I will sell/de-risk and I have a plan for that.
I don't mind being down on investments, I am red across number of mine but not worried at all due to solid fundamentals. I am just mindful here of what news actually means going forward as a lot got burnt last time around and I held my nerve not selling. Let see what the coming weeks bring but yes I do have an exit strategy in mind.
Have a good weekend all
BP
@MrST, the way I look at it, we were supposed to drill circa 1,200m in 1 month (lets say 5 weeks) in Tai-1. Tai-1 took circa 2 months (circa 9 weeks) to complete and RNS to us. Within the 9 weeks, we had 2 weeks of drill breaking and side tracking and then 1 week of trying to wireline the karoo (assuming from Ian's interview). Therefore total drilling of 6 weeks. They pretty much drilled 200m per week
I think the lakebed reservoir should be between 400m-600m max so they should encounter helium between 2-3 weeks from this week onwards. Hence why if we don't hear any news in 2 to 3 weeks, I would get slightly nervous.
This has happened twice before where a delay was met with optimism on this board and people were convinced that no news means good news. On both occasions, a drill broke/ hole washed out. This time, I will certainly get nervous over any delays.
Each to their own, all IMO, no offence...
BP
If we don't get any news by the 6th of Sep (13th Sep for the brave), then this is in my eyes a delay and we all know with HE1, a delay means something has gone wrong and they are trying to rescue the situation.
No worries for LTH either way.
@Rumandpoker, I've purchased 2 lots of ADV at 3p and 3.2p so averaging 3.1p at the moment. I just have a few risky plays on at the moment in HE1 and ADV (i know about the 95% chance of success but anything can happen with drilling as I've recently found out) hence will only top up if its super cheap on ADV.
I hope this falls to 2.5p in the coming months before spud date. I can do with adding more here. Same with SLP which is cheap at the moment.
Still holding onto HE1 as we are re-drilling there and the SP is recovering pretty well. If we announce a discovery at shallower targets, it should send the HE1 SP towards 50p I would imagine before more drilling in 2022 after the rainy season.
If I remember correctly, it took us 1 week to reach 70m and announce results after 9 days of drilling starting. Obviously we don't know when the drill had started exactly and how long it takes to move a rig 20m (any experienced professionals can clarify maybe).
However I think it's hopeful thinking to expect news on Monday. Maybe later in the week if we're lucky.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-platinum-demand-automotive-idUSKBN19X21V
any thoughts welcome
Apologies I worked off the interim statement at end of Q2, not Q3, even still, £75m in bank, add another £35m next year and that £110m vs market cap of £245m with cash accounting for 45% of market cap. Enterprise value right now is £170m which is quite frankly an insult and disgrace to SLP.
Will be putting my annual bonus in if the share price continues to drop or stays at circa 90p.