Member Info for bignose58

So weird , I wrote it twice … lol

The.Italian.

Wrong BB ?

The.Italian.

Wrong BB ?

Looks like the VXR and ERP shareholders are confused...VXR is heading upwards too. An all-time high ....

Or are ERP shareholders now watching VXR too since it has given cause to the positive profit alert ??? maybe.

So many questions but only speculation for answers...... ;-)

Certainly looks like some manipulation is going on.

A single lot (10k share) buy at 0.184 (18% up on yesterdays close) which I would guess is to try and allow for someone to offload at a higher selling price. I wouldn't be surprised if it was the same holder. buy a small amount at some stupidly high price, then try and offload the rest of your holding..... Is it really that obvious ??? Given that the watchers will see the sudden rise and will buy in to try and catch the rise. Even at an 18% premium, they still could make their 5 to 10%......lol

And....... They're off !!!

Day traders jumping in hoping to get in early on a possible rise and collect at the finish line late today or tomorrow....place your bets....place ur bets....lol

Well a few certainly knew since yesterday and today there were a few buys close to the 0.16 mark. Not large buys by way of volume but small price drivers meaning they were willing to pay above the current downtrend price. You will notice as soon as there was a small sell it soon brought the price back down, so for a while a larger spread than usual. Point being, more leaks than the titanic…lol

Well I'll be a monkey's uncle, a positive profit alert, although I have no clue as to what that is......lol lol lol

Well Heimdal, contrary to what would seem logical sense, there is indeed a positive profit alert, so well done you.

I'm sure this could provide a small spike tomorrow based on the last time .... which was when.... errr summer of 2016 ?

"The Group expects to record a profit attributable to the equity holders of the Company for the period ended 30 June 2021 of between approximately US$0.50 million to approximately US$4 million (certainly a pretty wide band given the income amounts we are talking about).........Wonderous are the ways of HK 3rd party and company accountants....lol

Although I still have my doubts since none of it seems to make sense given the usual Fortacin write down which appears to have had some reversal ? Is it me just being biased because I'm so used to reading about losses? Or are they just taking full advantage of legal accountancy jiggery pokery ...... lol. What about the ATO .... I guess that will be in H2...... ahhhhh. :-)

Heimdal

All very hypothetical, but could be a possibility if they get it right.

Like many, I suspect Charlie got fed up with the continued lies and misinformation. Given our managements history and abilities, he may have taken the right path. Only time will tell on that one. What would be encouraging signs will be how quickly a license deal can be agreed and how impressive a deal is. Indications so far since 2014 are not encouraging are they given they were supposedly at heads of terms all those years ago.

Whoops a slip of the fat finger. Heimdal .. lol

Heimdak,

Lets hope Recordati can put this to good use and provide the much needed market awareness to increase sales.

Although he may have come across like an Elon Musk of the mining sector, lets hope he doesn't have the qualities of Jamie Gibson of the pharma sector.....with his ability of losing shareholder value.....gulp.....lol

Going back to the announcement and the figures contained therein.

I've searched the internet and come up with some interesting figures. I include the links to the info if you are interested.

The 2020 U.S. urologist population consists of a total of 13,352 practicing urologists with say 25% dealing with sexual health (could be more or could be less)
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-american-urological-association-releases-2019-urology-census-results-301040195.html

The U.S. primary care workforce includes approximately 209,000 practicing primary care physicians, and 56,000 nurse practitioners (NPs).
https://www.ahrq.gov/research/findings/factsheets/primary/pcwork3/index.html

Using the numbers from the market research doc.
If it is assumed that the 70 physicians write a prescription for say 70% of the 21 patients they see each month, that is almost 12,000 prescriptions per annum (And that's just for the 70).

And if we assume say 10% of the above GP's and nurses work with sexual health issues = 25,500 who may prescribe our product.

Given that the survey is representative (no reason to say it isn't otherwise they would be pretty foolish using the data when discussing license agreements ?) that adds up to a large number of prescriptions. (25,500 + 3,338 = 28,838 x 12000/70 = nearly 5mill prescriptions. at 100USD/can = 500 mill usd.

Of course the above figures and %'s can be debated, but it does give some interesting numbers. Will prospective licensees see it this way ? who knows, but they could help whet the taste buds.

Certainly something to think about ........ As always, DYOR...... ;-)

https://www.recordati.it/en/investors/annual_and_interim_reports/

Recordati have just released their half year report and although no individual figures are given for many of their products. Fortacin is listed as a contributory to the total. "In the first half of 2021, sales of other corporate products totalled € 124.8 million". Although I don't expect huge sales, it would appear there were some sales being made of the product in H1 which is probably a result of them, as I have been advised, overcoming the product supply issues.

Apologies for the typo. That shd have been. If one were to take the 71% and take 90% of that. (Not 80% as written). The calculated figure is for 90%.

Not sure if there is any significance here but with respect to the paragraph in the announcement:

As a group, 71% of them felt there was a significant unmet need for the treatment for premature ejaculation and existing treatments were not particularly successful. When presented with the target profile of Fortacin, 90% of physicians felt that the product would be valuable as front-line therapy and be well received by their
patients and they would certainly prescribe.

If one were to take the 71% and take 80% of that, we get 64.6% which is 45 urologists out of the 70. Interestingly 29% felt felt there was NOT a significant unmet need for the treatment., which actually surprises me. Maybe these are just witch doctors and the like that would rather prescribe snake oil !!!

Also, it is interesting that they make a comparison with Viagra prior to approval. Does this then suggest or are they inferring that sales of Fortacin would out sell Viagra, which I'm a little skeptical about, although may well do to begin with (although not much of a benchmark) before Viagra became a household name, which I don't expect Fortacin to become.... or could it ???

Yes, I was rather surprised myself regarding my docs response, but as I noted, it obviously needs a lot of market awareness, which our intrepid leaders have not taken advantage of since 2014 !!!

The.Italian,

Although shareholders have never been advised on phase lll numbers, I have been led to believe it would be around 75, however. It all depends on the FDA and since as I wrote the phase II results appear to be excellent and given all the available eu date, they may feel a lesser number appropriate. I’d like to think that they may even give phase lII a miss…..since all the available data is quite conclusive…..but what do I know…SFA….lol

And still not reflected in the ERP SP. The rise today, I would think, is more likely because of last nights announcement which does indicate a real positive outcome for the US, particularly since they have also indicated previously that several licensees are in the discussions which could help to elevate an offer.

That said, the rise today only just recoups some of the loss this week. Still a long long way to go to get back to anywhere near a decent level reflective of the inherent value of the product.

Interestingly I was at my local doctors today for my usual 6 monthly cholesterol check where I discussed with the doctor about Fortacin becoming available in Singapore, sooner than later (if they can get their fingers out). He actually stated that there was a real need for the product and would keep his eye and ears open for it (I don't jest). It would seem to indicate the problem was not so much with stigma, but more likely about product awareness. The company should really consider redirecting money towards product awareness than paying unwarranted, unearned and disgustingly high salaries, nést pas.