RE: thoughts1 Sep 2022 05:19
Regarding the 17 mill, which was highlighted in the end of 2021 year results, they stated. "the company expects, by the end of 2022, a Milestone income from a potential commercial strategic partner in the US of approximately US$17 million".
Since it only mentions milestone income, which is totally different to an upfront payment, there could be a few milestones to be received (eg, on signing the license agreement, on commencement of the phase III trial, after receiving FDA approval and then first sales), so 17 mill is pretty awful, dont you think ?
I questioned Dr Mike who stated "You will have to ask Jamie who probably won’t respond. I don’t know how he calculated it……that doesn’t imply that I disagree, only that he didn’t consult." (very strange since Dr Mike has been in continual discussions with prospective US licensees and he does have, so I understand, this sort of commercial experience which JG definitely has not) .
He also went on to say "Historically in urology though, that sort of value would be with one company to secure an option on a pre-approval NDA. On approval of NDA you could multiply an additional milestone by between 5 and 20 depending on subsequent royalties. All this would have been agreed as part of the package of which 17 mill would be a component. On approval the rest of the agreement would then apply and only a few signatures would be required i.e. all the lawyering would have been completed in 2022."
Non of which, obviously, indicates if the company are close to signing a deal and how good a deal that would be.
As a side note. The.Italian. Certainly very positive results of the FUM FDA Phase III trial and yet still no indication of a license agreement which could be a sign that they are going down the route as per Mike's last observation above. Certainly appears to now be a no risk multiple rise investment. ;-)
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