Member Info for bignose58

Morning The.Italian,

Probably the whitewash waiver given the impact it will have in that the company since it would effectively become legally Jim's to do with as he so wishes. Not that shareholders can do anything at the, moment, but this does make it legal to screw us all over.... ;-)

Of course, but you have to look at the sp you bought in at and the eventual bottom line figure. At 0.21 HK$ that would equate to a market cap of only 114 million squid which is no where near the 152 mill effectively paid at TO. And given the dilution since then, most would probably only just be in profit if at all.

Bothwell,

Lets hope you are right, however. The market cap would need to be 3x for a shareholder at PLE TO to get the same money as at the TO valuation. So market cap would need to be about 450mill squid which I am pretty sure wont happen on any China and FDA approval announcement. Of course anything can happen with market sentiment, however. This we well know has been tested many times and failed due to the constant delays from mistakes and incompetence. So I cannot see market sentiment helping to begin with.

It would take a year or 2 at least to have any idea on sales figures which no one has any idea about (even with the tongue in cheek sales figures in the report or even with the first years 9mill sufferers they are going after in China (which doesnt give much confidence given the sorry state of the agreement made) - remember ERP only gets a small % of any US and China sales.

Looks like the inhouse broker is keeping the sp at the rights issue price, most probably under the instruction of ERP.

Whooops a typo. Obviously the sp doesn't need to be 3HKD.... :-). That was a factor.
The market cap would need to be about 450mill squid for a shareholder to have the same value as the T/O price which at the time gave a market cap of around 150mill squid...... ;-)

The.Italian, although there are indeed a lot of QC comments, most are regarding data clarification, which, given a response by the company was made quite promptly, I would suspect they were cleared. This does lead to the thinking that the Type-C meeting would probably be on schedule, however. Given any news released would impact the SP, I'm sure the company will use the "Not considered price sensitive" as a way of not announcing anything. I would therefore suspect the phase III may have started by the time any announcement is made, however. Given they are so desperate for money and cannot start the phase III until they have some, they may not be able to start until after the monies are accounted for. A bit of a catch 22 situation with a lot of jiggery pokery.....

JR87,

I think long-term holders can forget about the sp at TO since at that time (after the 10:1 consolidation) there were 1.5bill shares, today there are 2.4bill. Come Dec/Jan, there will be about 4,8 bill. That will be 69% less value to holders, so to even get the same value for each shareholder as the T/O which at the time had an sp of 0.95HKD (or thereabouts) , LTH;s would need to see an SP of 3HKD just to break even.

I don't expect there will be any op update until after the rights issue is sorted since they can't have the sp increasing as I would suspect it would all look a bit suspicious, however. How do they get round the withholding of price sensitive information, particularly with the FDA and China studies to complete which cannot be considered to be otherwise.

This means nothing will be announced for at least another few months now.

Certainly seems like a lot of jiggery-pokery going on, just like the DLI debacle.

Just my opinion, but I cannot see them doing otherwise.

Its all the excitement.......I just cant handle it.....lol

Yep, I am going crazy...yooohoooo.........

The first post was correct except where I wrote the trail went cold....it went cold after the response PLE made on the 22nd Sept.

Sorry about that....... LOL

Sorry that was wrong. The response was made on the September 22, 2022. The 25th of August was the FDA response with comments. :-)

IF anyone is interested in seeing the latest regarding the study results and first response, see.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/results/NCT03578783

There are many QC comments, although these appear to have been responded to on the 25th August, although the trail then goes cold. It certainly would appear the Type C meeting has still not taken place.

Morning guys.

It was JG himself who mentioned about it was not considered price sensitive, although I am sure it will be included in any future update, which, as you write The.Italian is due now with respect of the two outstanding items scheduled for the end of Q3. That said, maybe this recent announcement on rights issue may cause it to be delayed (speculation on my part since the last EU approval was earlier than expected, although It was timed just right after the DLI announcement even though they knew about it some days before).

Morning guys.

Personally I really don't think JM would want to buy the company outright since it would be far too much of a headache for him with all his other goings on and also could complicate his tax liabilities that go with it. Particularly if it suddenly puts him under the microscope which I am sure he would really rather not as I would suspect he's not entirely squeaky clean.

That said, if this product is considered to sell well in the US and China (stranger things have happened), it would make him personally a huge amount through his two entities (Galloway and Indigo). Why else would they want to get the whitewash waiver which suits him, legally, very well.

Also, if as we suspect not many would ultimately subscribe, it will greatly reduce the free cash. If this is indeed the case one could imagine that the US license agreement may be closer than we think. The can certainly use the current financial situation to support the proposal without too much suspicion.

Just another scenario to add the many others we have speculated on.

They never have been in anything before, why should they be any different this time.

The.Italian, cannot argue with anything written in your post, apart from the nag that the timing seems convenient. As I stated, this could have been done some time ago with a resulting half of the current dilution.

I’m sure this will never go into administration since given what they have, JM, I’m sure, would take it private.

We have speculated before as to the reasons they have done things when they have only to realise they were not that clever and it was all the usual ineptness, however. Your comment on shareholders not taking up the rights is also something I also think may happen. One just has to look at what double the number of shares will do to the price. They have already stated the rights issue price is based on a 180mill HK’s which means an sp in the region of 0.035hkd, so if anyone did want shares, why take up the issue when they can be bought at half the issue price in 3 months if not before. The money to be injected is already earmarked with none of it adding any real value, so I cannot see it staying at the rights issue level much longer

And given they are applying for a whitewash exemption means they too don’t expect much support particularly since JM and his other entities are underwriting it.

Could this be the reason it’s being done now and at such a price so they can increase their holding % ? Although possibly considered far fetched, stranger things have happened and I for one don’t trust them and wouldn’t be surprised.

And as you write, wouldn’t it be a coincidence if announcements were made in Jan?

Of course, one small (next to zero) possibility is, and this is me grasping at straws. This needed to be done now because of the current state of the company for the accounts (hence the recent announcement on the accounting matter) and as added insurance if a us deal etc doesn’t materialise. If it does, would they just cancel the whole thing ? The time this is going to take to arrange is nigh on 3 month and a lot could happen in the first one? Anyway, just clutching at straws on this possibility.

Interesting that overseas investors will be excluded especially since the remainder were the ones who supported the company before TO. Certainly a slap in the face and kick up the butt there.

They need money to get them to Dec.

Maybe any possible us agreement has been postponed delayed or even walked away from. It’s anybodies guess.

They led shareholders to believe a lot would happen.

And of course news on two fronts is expected from the end of this week, which could have an impact on sp, Chinese trial completion being one.

Anyway, no matter how much we complain, it is what it is and we the small people as always have to sit back and watch it all happen.

The management continually show their complete ineptness on how to run a business to such a point it’s considered good practice……..lol

Keith, not given up hope and not too surprised since we all knew they were running on fumes, however. Once again I question the timing. They knew they would need cash, so why wait till now when the sp was drifting. If they had done it a month or two ago when the sp appeared to have levelled off and taken a breather the dilution could have been half as much. As I wrote this certainly appears to have followed the same route as the DLI debacle.

It’s also interesting that the sp had been dropping by 4 to 5 % over the last week, on next to no volume which could be indicative of news getting out.

Once again I cannot help be suspicious about how this has been done.