Member Info for bignose58

If anyone is interested, after rereading the interims I come to the following conclusions.

Recordati has the right to launch or not launch in any European country, however. I am sure they will do their best to make the product a success given their current investment.

Although tiered percentage royalties on net sales, ranging from the mid-teens to the mid-twenties for 10 years from first commercial sale, and thereafter at a single digit percentage royalty rate is mentioned in the amended and restated license agreement, for me it gives the impression it could run from a high % towards a low % since after 10 years it reduces to a single % figure. Also as sales pick up and profits increase it would seem logical to agree on a reduced figure. Anyway, it would appear it runs from the low mid-teens to the high mid-twenties then suddenly drops off to single digit figures.

The impurities problem is something between Recordati and PSNW who are working on finding and solving the issue. I guess we will not know anymore because of the transfer of the European marketing authorization, which is now in Recordatis hands.

From further investigation at the clinicaltrials.com website, the CRO is actively recruiting and enrolling patients via test centres and started this month (Aug). It would help website visitors if the status were updated from “not yet started” to “started” to keep visitors up to date instead of having to search for it... ;-)

I don't suppose we will receive any more news on licensing agreements until the company sees fit to announce updates.

The.Italian.When I referred to big brother, I was referring to whomever is policing this board..... ;-)

Anyway, I will post it again tmrw since I have had no explication for its removal.

I was trying to confuse big brother .... lol

Actually Matt, I wasnt and expected it since its quire apparent big brother is watching.

The.Italian

Now worries, although I would not "postulate" too much as its a dirty habit which can lead to calluses on the inside of the hand.... :-)

Nice to see one of you two stepping up to the plate and making a 1mil+ buy 2 mins before closing.... :-)

CI6

That is true, but it depends on what they consider as the "long-term" prospects in comparison to ours... :-)

I am sure they have changed from hoping to sell the company and or product (given they are an investment company) to the realisation that they are now, like it or not, a pharma. :-)

More like

“we are also extremely delighted to actively announce in advance ....... LOL”

Seems there is still some buying interest, so I guess there are some locals that do believe... or just traders waiting for the next pump.....lol

CI6

That is true and something I paid little attention to. Given we have been speculating on the idea of a "back door into China", I would have thought it would involve a PRC partner....then again maybe it does, but as a subsidiary ?

As time passes we will soon find out, but Im certainly not holding my breath for a sale even with the speculated large stake holder(s).

pxs

Maybe it does, although, as extracted from the 2016 interims:
Discussions with new potential licensing partners for PSD502® in other geographical regions at an advanced stage.
Mind you they have used both advanced and active in the recent interims. Maybe it just depends on who has contributed what.....LOL

I was expecting a drop based on the sales figures and like you was hoping the HK/ Macau info would help mitigate some of it, however. Im sure the HK investors/brokers have become very synical regarding RPG predictions on launch dates. I think once the anouncement that the HK approval has been recived and a distribution agreement signed will make all the difference.

The. Italian.

I don't quite understand your figures of 3.53 euros/can or the 4 million cans. Maybe Im missing something. Anyway, this is what I come up with to answer your question which is based on the current figures and are very approximate which I am sure you or others may disagree with:

Given for the E5 that there are nearly 33mill male sufferes x 23.57/can = 776.34mill euros
net sales for 4 months = 494,376 Euros ==> x 12/4 = 1.483mill Euros for a year
==> current yearly market penetration = 1.483/776.34 = 0.19%
RPG current yearly profit = 12/4 x 74156 = 222,469Euros

If our yearly expenditure is 3.5mill euros then Recordati needs to sell 3.5/.222469 = 15.75 times as many cans as current being sold. Of course this does not include for the total E11 which effectively would halv this value to say 8 times. Nor does it include for rescripts. If sufferes purchased 4 cans a year, this would be 2 times.

So, it all depends on the market penetration which currently is 0.2% and on rescripts. Market penetration will only increase with awareness and marketing, which comes down to word of mouth and media coverage, and rescripts on how sufferes value the product. I am sure Recordati will take the necessary steps to increase this although they themselves are already not doing so bad given their net figure is 1.26mill euros/year which I assume is total profit given the difference between my expected gross (based on the figures in the presentations) and their net margin.

Of course the above figures can be taken with a pinch of salt since its only the start and low sales are to be expected. We will now have to wait till the year end results to understand if higher volume sales from increased market penetration through awareness and from rescripts.

At this moment in time based only on the current royalty fee and documented net sales, and as a worse case scenario, it could be sometime before a profit is made and we could expect not one but possibly a couple of cash calls, but that is if the ROW licenses are not soon forthcoming and even then, It depends if they manage to squeeze reasonable upfront payments out of the licensee. This may be doubtful if what they stated about new licenses being dependant on EU sales (this year) which may not be considered awe inspiring.

I am certainly not wanting to scaremonger and apologise if its read that way and I am sure most will choose to ignore what I have written since I am only using current figures supplied. We will certainly have a much better understanding at year end. Although I do have a lot of faith in the product, unfortunately we are at the mercy of those we indirectly employ.... :-)

I hope that may help to answer your question ?

Matt
What you have written is correct. Initially they gave 12 months and then later changed it. Its anybodies guess as to whats happened, but historically they have never gotten any date right which is probably from ignorance, misunderstanding or just guesswork For the HK/Macau launch it beggers belief given they are probably only a few 100m from where the import office is. Since they are not very forthcoming with respect to exact dates of when applications are made or forthcoming with reasons as to why things have not panned out as expected (one just has to look at the ROW fiasco), one can only assume that the applications may have been earlier. Anyway, given what has been announced, we can only wait and see and hope that the HK approval is given in the next couple of months and a distribution agreement signed during the same time or soon after. (No reason why a distribution agreement cannot be agreed and signed now with a non approval get out clause).

Matt
In the interims they stated HK within the next couple of months. They are just waiting on local public gazetting. So just around the corner. It just then depends on how long before they sign a licensing agreement.

Bunion
You are indeed correct. I'm sure I alluded to that in my initial post re the sales figures where I extrapolated for 10 months. Infact the sales are not 3 bad considering the net amount was over 400k and as you wrote for abt 4 months.

I don't think the q2 sales for the other 2 countries will amount to much since the populations are only abt 10 to 15 mill. What will double the figure is in early Jan when the remaiming e11 and uk relaunch come on board.

I suggest he is ignored. Eventually he will leave once there is no captive audience.

It will be interesting to see what the market makes of the mixed bag announcement tmrw. Hopefully they will overlook the word "dissapointing" :-)

That should have been "not one word about it". :-)

Anyway, I have asked JG for more informationarifcation as one of my points. Citing Dr Mike's supporting comment to (either a local HK paper or a Bloombergs interview in 2016) where it was stated they were at "heads of terms agreements".

Pom did post a link to the article, but unfortunately it can no longer be looked up....RIP Pom

Matt/The.Italian

Not only that, but the can resize from 6 to 12 dose was highlighted in the PLE 2015 interim results and ref as being highlighted in the 2014 AR (although there is not one work about it in that report). In the same 2015 document, we also find:

Discussions and negotiations are currently taking place with:
(i) A global pharmaceutical company for 'out licensing' the grant of rights by Plethora in respect of PSD502™ for certain countries in LATAM, Asia Pacific (including Australia) and South Africa. The parties have entered into non-binding heads of terms and have moved into discussions on the license agreement which anticipate an up-front payment to Plethora followed by additional payments upon the achievement of certain milestones plus royalties linked to sales.
(ii) A multinational pharmaceutical company for 'out licensing' the grant of rights by Plethora in respect of PSD502™ for countries in the Middle East region. The parties have entered into non-binding heads of terms and have moved into discussions on the license agreement which anticipate an up-front payment to Plethora followed by additional payments upon the achievement of certain milestones plus royalties linked to sales.

Where "non binding heads of terms are stated". These are even more than just advanced discussions and that's knowing of the 12 dose cannister size !!!

So what has gone wrong since then ???

Although towards the end of 2015 the offer from RPG was made and we know that the 12 dose can was approved in May 2016. Surely this could not be the reason they all took a step back?

Pp

Based on previous correspondence, I have probably a 50/50 chance of something. Although I am pretty sure he has looked at the email, he is now at an "advanced stage" of response........We try and keep him on his toes.... ;-)

The Italian,

As an example of how far back it has been used, the following extract was included in the PLE 3rd Feb 2014 announcement on reduced can size (6 dose). RNS Number:1077Z (yup Ive got them all) :-)

The Company's discussions with a number of potential multi-national licensing partners have reached a more advanced stage and the directors are encouraged with progress so far. However, it is not possible to determine with accuracy the timing of completing such agreements, nor to give guidance on the terms thereof. The Company is also in detailed discussions with its preferred manufacturing partner.

Although this is a PLE announcement, its basically the same people involved... ;-)

The Italian,

No problem. The whole idea of these BB's is to encourage discussions on differing views, especially with RPG announcements since they are deliberately vague and misleading (I write deliberately since any professional could make one or 2 errors, but with RPG its appears to be constant in all announcements, presentations and emails). I am no expert and do make mistakes so if what I write is in error, I do expect some feedback from ppl like your good self. :-)

The expression "advanced stage" has been used frivolously many times in previous announcements (one only has to search "advanced" through the pdf"s to see what I mean). I am afraid that given the misleading information announced in the past, received in emails and from verbal conversations, I cannot help but view anything new with some contempt and mistrust. As such I cannot help but look to critisise what is announced, it gives me something to do..:-). They really need to get their act together and be consistent with what they tell investors, particularly if they want to be taken seriously. Remember we are meant to be dealing with well paid professionals who it seems are very lax in the way things are handled. It is quite obvious to me now that no vetting is done by JG or anyone else before announcements/presentations are posted which I feel, given how long they have been working on this one product, should not be happening.

That said; I did yesterday send a 9 point email to JG who I am sure will respond promptly as he has done before (even during the weekend) previously, however. I am sure he will also decline to clarify/respond to some points as he has declined before, although I am not looking for personal answers in most cases. I just want him to ensure all shareholders are correctly informed in a proper manner. There are no excuses for not keeping shareholders correctly informed.

Although you are correct that the announcement does not explicitly state Macau and HK would be launched together or one is dependent on the other. The fact that they have only now stated they are in active discussions with a local distributor would tell me (based on the time all other things have taken) that by the time any agreement is made the HK import license would have been received. Of course if the ROW license agreements are anything to go by, we could still be waiting months for a local launch to happen and we will just receive the usual "at advanced stage"..... LOL.

Anyway, I await a response form Jamie to my email.

Also, if anyone is interested. The time frame from start of manufacture to release of product of a batch is 540hrs (including a 14 day quarantine period). This is as advised by PSNW.