Member Info for bighammer

Roger , no need to applogise for a different view that is what the board is for .

Stephen , you are spot on with the big elephant in the room . Our spend is about £5m per annum so i am hoping that by February we will have an idea if we can go down the cheap route for FDA application , have more of an idea if we will get NICE guidance in the timescale we hope for , the company will know if we have any forward sales based on NICE approval and know how much cash they have in the bank . With all that info to hand they can then work out (a) do they need cash , (b) how much they need and then (c) when they need it . EG
Release news FDA is the cheap route in an rns knowing they have forward sales of say £2-3m UK and EU with £1.5m still in the bank thus wanting another £2-3m to see them through the next 12 months . The FDA news increases the sp along with forward sales then go for a placing to raise the money this then reduces the discount offered and reduces the amount of dilution for the shareholders . This is all hypothetical and in my mind the best possible synario for all of us . As long as NICE keep to their timelines which being a government body isnot always the case.

Expert Trader , any time you want to swap for my 66p average just let me know lol. I think there will be many who made their money last year will start to look to take a position of some sort early next year so the next few weeks will be the time to top up as you say .

Stephen, always good to hear others thoughts and reasons for buying , I agree the next year or so is going to be interesting and exciting , I am expecting/ hoping for a takeover but not until we get a steady income stream . AIHL and stroke test are our key with a possible £200m per annum once fully taken up but would our R and D information be just as valuable which is why any offer I am hoping will be well north of £1 with multiple pharmas involved . Some may feel this is a pie in the sky thought and just wishful thinking but it IS a possibility .

Morning all , interesting post DS. It is clearly obvious you have done your DD on GDR and their sales history yet you are still looking to build a holding as is/has Popeye just makes me wonder how many others are having the same thought but not posting?.
Medium term towards the back of q1 it looks like we will have news regarding NICE and AIHL and possibly in q2 news on stroke test , my feeling is these should sell almost on their own accord with takeover offers to follow . It would be interesting to hear your thoughts on future possibilities along with others.

It is very rare for takeovers to happen based on potential or bargain , it is usually based on fact and DD . The potential revenue for GDR on AIHL is £75m plus alone , with the stroke test you could possibly table that and that is per annum . If we were to get an offer ( which I don't think we will) of say £20m do we think no other company would then offer anothe £5 m and so on . Our sales have been poor to non existent but you get a pharma like Astra Zeneca with world wide connections and sales teams would change tha in an instant .

Guy , we hav nt even been fed that for ages.

I have been in about the same time with 66p average , BUT if we go with those timelines then i am expecting a very nice return . Dilution in q1 next year is almost a given but if we get FDA application and NICE i am hoping that we wont need to replicate and then just look forward to some nice returns.

Roger i am hoping more patience and bigger sales are hoped for and needed before any offer is received to avoid any low ball offer . Just imagine we have sales in the UK.EU and then the US , and by that time the stroke test is under way , then just sit back and watch them fight over us , HOPEFULLY . Either way 1 offer will trigger a few as some DD will already have been carried out i am assuming.

If and when we do get an offer i cant see it happening until we have steady sales in the EU but more likely the US and that could well be in 1-2 years time , sp is anyones guess>

I agree we will need a cash raise early next year but i also think a carrot will be needed to entice the ii s . NICE approval could come around March early April but i think that may be too late but also act as a reward , i like the idea of FDA application in early Feb , AND then NICE guidance then becomes another carrot as reward .
Lets not forget that the traders and investors will still have GDR on their radar who bought and made a packet last year so with good news this could motor if as some have thought sales will follow shortly after NICE news.

Roger , i agree that we will get some news before Christmas with the yoyo effect up NICE results but i cant see any takeover offer until we start selling in the EU and the US as they are the revenue markets for the big money.
Its encouraging to see some taking advantage of the low sp to accumulate in time for NICE results , my thinking is when results do come out then for eg if it reaches 40p then buying now is a massive return , leaving it until January with say an sp of 15-20p with still return a good profit but leave the lth still under water to an extent .
We can guess and summise as much as we want the BOD and mm s will do as they feel fit .

Totally agree Ben , still flat out myself as we are heading for x mas completions , after then that will be the telling time what will happen . The last 8 months has seen a near 100% increase in plots required which has been near impossible due to materials and trades so a 50% reduction in numbers will still see us all in work and if the government can steady the ship then the finance markets will settle down .
The last few weeks for me has shown who actually runs this country , yes the PM and her cohorts shot themselves clearly and foolishly in the foot but if the markets say no then it is no .

Cost???

Nothing is straightforward with GDR butAIHL and the stroke test will be monumental to the sp , but it will take time , as in years . In saying that the NICE approval will be the catylist to the re rate we all want from the sp as the will be the kickstart for sales not just in the UK but also Europe and the rest of the world . It is possible that takeover offers will come in when sales of AIHL start in the U.S. , possibly sooner . My big worry is that because we have been under water for so long that a measly offer will be accepted without the full potential being realised . Once AIHL is up and running fully over the U.S. And EU The yearly revenue is expected to be about £70m a year , those figures quoted do not include the rest of the world , add the stroke test and then any P/E ratio between 5 and 15 then you get an idea of the true value . Just to add this my guess only but having read some posts lately there are others who seem it as a similar value . Might as well put my neck on the block while I am at it even though I will be slaughtered for it IF the sales of the tests were to run there full course in 4-5 years the sp could IMO reach £8plus , depending on any dilutions along the way so any offers below £3 in 2 years or so I feel will be poor . Don't worry hard hat is already on for the bashing I will get but this is how is we it could easily go .

Guy , Liz has resigned , that is all the miracles we will be getting this week .

2 blue days on the trot not seen that for a while , can we make 4???

Some really good posts there Roger and Starrs and they all make perfect sense . It seems as though a plan is slowly starting to emerge.
I dont see a takeover offer until we have AIHL on sale in the US and by that time the stroke test hopefully will be on the market as well and then a bidding war could then unfold . Normally companies would rather buy another company out when they are selling their products and pay a lot more than getting in early and grab a bargain , the question is what would we be worth when both products are on the market and have you got the gonads to hold out ?. Much more enjoyable posting at the weekend when the idiots are nt about and a descent discussion is possible.

We will always have the test the big problem has always been selling it , this winter maybe ???

Sounds like you have been filling your boots Popeye, are you looking at GDR as a medium term hold or looking at the bigger picture ???.