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I didn’t say nor imply football stadia , I said Airports
Benno It’s a 5-10 minute saliva test , self administered in the same format as a pregnancy test.
It’s still an IF as it hasn’t been proven on the lateral flow test , if it works it’s a game changer.
I’ve seen it suggested that queuing for flights could be split into two segregated areas with passengers only permitted into the second area once they have submitted their completed tests (which they would collect upon entrance to the first area).
Its is worth noting that circa 4.3 billion passengers were carried on scheduled flights in 2018 so I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised to see the airlines monetise the procedure.........
Q1 sales clearly demonstrate an increased market for our tech, however If anyone thinks that they will be opening up mass aviation , Sports & Concert Stadia on the back of such technology they need to lay off the crack pipe.
According to the Annals of Internal Medicine a patient's symptoms start about five days after exposure to the virus , nearly 98% of patients develop symptoms within 11.5 days, with 1% start showing symptoms after 14.....what use is surface temperature detection equipment to a an individual showing no symptoms......?
Every loss of life is an absolute tragedy and I feel for all bereaved, however ....I don’t believe there is a country in the world outside of NZ who wouldn’t do things differently if they could start again.
In respect of the UK I believe statistics will show we were totally transparent and forthright in our reporting ( unlike a few other countries) , the numbers will emerge once we reach the other side of this awful episode and I don’t think our handling and loss of life will be anything like the worst in Europe , however to start throwing stones at any government when they are still in the midst of a pandemic is little premature.
I believe HMG did what any UK government would have done and be guided by the scientists, thus trying with the very best of intentions to act responsibly based on the scientific advice given.
Hindsight may well end up concurring with the clever bloke who said.......... “ governments must remember that rushed science is almost always bad science”.
The following is a very interesting and unbiased piece on Covid 19 statistics.
https://fullfact.org/health/covid-deaths/
Mike - Ref your Item 1 where have you had the info implying the extensive delays and crate numbers for Q4 ? I understand Q3 was a soft start no show but surely MPS would have anticipated a functioning port 3 months in ?????
The soft start is a given but the Director General of the Ghana Ports and Harbours Authority is on record as saying 2019 numbers were 5% up on 2018
https://ghanaports.gov.gh/Media/news-details/9/MX7TAHWE/DG-OF-GPHA-PROJECTS-MORE-CARGO-VOLUMES-IN-2020,-DUE-TO-INVESTMENTS-MADE-IN-GHANA’S-PORTS-
TEUs for 2018 = 836k+ 5% = 877k crates say 900k
https://www.theafricareport.com/11234/ghanas-tema-port-flaunts-ambition/
I’m of the opinion that £7 is a pipe dream but let’s suppose it’s the right number and look at the numbers through PFs eyes the day he sat down with YA/ Riverfort as he would have to have had a steer on numbers for H1.
Forget the soft start numbers from July to Sept ( which I’m sure would be north of 50k crates over the 3 months ) - and assume 75k crates per month Oct - Dec. = 225k crates
Add PFs 59% increase which MPS would have known were incoming for Jan - Feb = 240k crates
Even though we keep been told that numbers are up and more traffic is coming because we have a deep port etc etc , assume the numbers were expected to drop back to a conservative 75k March through to end of June = 300k crates
Total crates up to end of June of 765k x £7.00 = £5.3M assume a 55% margin ( 2018 finals) of £2.9M profit up to end of June ......so if the numbers were anywhere like £7 why go to wonga....... PF s refusal to give any hint of a price per crate speaks volumes imo......
What number do you disagree with ?
Lungi / Training MSC - £1m
Keyguard per Q (based on last accounts 2016) - £375k
Asia Port Screening from Q2 2019 ( $1.7m ) £1.4m
SQ deposit + 3 instalments - £70k
Euro ops ,Saudi,Germany ,assume £0
Total £2.85m leaving £1.35M from Tema for Q1
Why go on the attack ? I'm happy to be corrected.
How much of that Q1 £4.2m is from Tema ?
The head scratcher for me is if the £4.28 number is anywhere near based on the volumes , why did we go to Wonga.com....?
£4.2m for Q1 is nowt to be sneezed at , though when you dig in the picture gets a little cloudy .. ...... If I’m interpreting the numbers ( all ball park ) for Q1 correctly;
Lungi / Training MSC - £1m
Keyguard per Q (based on last accounts 2016) - £375k
Asia Port Screening from Q2 2019 ( $1.7m ) £1.4m
SQ deposit + 3 instalments - £70k
Euro ops ,Saudi,Germany ,assume £0
Total £2.85m leaving £1.35M from Tema for Q1
We know Tema was circa 900k crates last year so 75k pr month average - add in PFs 59% YOY increase for Jan & Feb = 120k ish pr month , assume March came in at 2019 numbers = 315k crates for Q1 .
£1.35m / 315k crates = £4.28 per crate .
In no way the lions share of £15 as per PFs AGM whisper , though nothing wrong with £4.28 per box.
Thing is I don’t believe he wouldn’t have included some of that ($2.1m) £1.7m tech from the 1st April RNS in Q1 numbers ...question is how much ....../o:
for the Accountants please from the 1st April RNS
Would these numbers have been “booked” in Q1..?
“So far in Q1 2020, the Group has received over $2.1 million USD of online product orders of which $1.7 million USD were in March 2020 “
Thanks Ian - Interesting piece .
Sorry to hear of you loss .
I am mindful that there are a few hoops to jump through so fingers crossed.
Absolutely - And in the meantime I’m sure PF will outline all of the tech sales numbers in a concise and unambiguous update.
We will have sold and will no doubt be selling some kit, though its slightly disconcerting that of all of the top secret sales we must be bagging the one he chose to share was an £8k sale to an NBA team.
Ian -
Boot is talking about an antigen test - As I’m sure your aware the throat swab test you refer to is a PCR test which can detect the virus from a few days after infection , this test requires the swab sample to be sent to a lab for analysis where it takes between 45mins - 4 hours to produce results so a drawn out procedure .
The antibody test (which there are hundreds , and most very inaccurate), will only detect the virus once the patient has been infected for a number of days , if recently infected it won’t detect whether the patient HAS the virus, and therefore whether he/she is infectious / shedding it as the body wont have produced antibodies to fight the infection at the initial stage of infection, and as you rightly point out this test is all over the place in terms of accuracy as no one seems to be able to get it right .
The antigen test , which I’m astonished has hardly been touched on by the media was successfully developed in 2016 to test for the Zika virus, it never found its way on to a lateral flow test as the outbreak petered out thus rendering the test useless , however the scientists have successfully reworked it in the lab, as we speak it’s being applied to a lateral flow test ( think pregnancy test) , they will know in a few weeks if it has been successfully transferred, the company that’s developed it has confirmed the test doesn’t cross react with closely related viruses thus making the test highly accurate and fast , it will be an affordable saliva test producing results in a matter of minutes.
https://avacta.com/avacta-ceo-alastair-smith-provides-update-on-covid-19-collaboration-with-cytiva/
They have a collaboration with one , and are talking to two other pharmaceuticals to mass produce the test in the billions - IF IT WORKS , which I hope for everyones sake it does , it will not only get the world back to work , you won’t set foot in an airport lounge anywhere in the world without having been tested as it will be the only way to get the planes back in the sky ...... with respect the to the fever detection equipment , there is of course currently a boom in sales so one would think we will benefit , however IF , this test comes on stream , (and if this doesn’t another one will) , the fever detection machine will quickly become akin to the office fax machine .....so a limited revenue stream in respect of Covid 19 ........AIMHO
No installation or training required - to give the sale perspective that item retails at £8k
No doubt - There clearly has been a huge increase in sales across the globe ...
The pharma’s appear to be weeks away from an affordable point of care throw away saliva test, producing results in minutes .....IMO the test will be mandatory to fly anywhere rendering fever detection equipment at airports redundant ....
Ian - Re your 12.35 I obtained a quote from a competitor for a similar product - £18k
Ok Mike , thanks for pointing that out , so which is it ?
A - 59% increase on the crates we scanned
B - 59% increase on the total throughput for the year
Mike - Excellent posts.
Let’s see what PF tells us in a week or so - I’m sure he’ll bring us right up to speed ..(o:
Aim - agreed .i don’t think it’s unrealistic to see Tema numbers 2020 come in line with 2019. What we won’t see is this 59% YOY nonsense which gets rolled out as factual.