Member Info for Bigears1170

Mike - Ref your Item 1 where have you had the info implying the extensive delays and crate numbers for Q4 ? I understand Q3 was a soft start no show but surely MPS would have anticipated a functioning port 3 months in ?????

The soft start is a given but the Director General of the Ghana Ports and Harbours Authority is on record as saying 2019 numbers were 5% up on 2018

https://ghanaports.gov.gh/Media/news-details/9/MX7TAHWE/DG-OF-GPHA-PROJECTS-MORE-CARGO-VOLUMES-IN-2020,-DUE-TO-INVESTMENTS-MADE-IN-GHANA’S-PORTS-

TEUs for 2018 = 836k+ 5% = 877k crates say 900k

https://www.theafricareport.com/11234/ghanas-tema-port-flaunts-ambition/

I’m of the opinion that £7 is a pipe dream but let’s suppose it’s the right number and look at the numbers through PFs eyes the day he sat down with YA/ Riverfort as he would have to have had a steer on numbers for H1.

Forget the soft start numbers from July to Sept ( which I’m sure would be north of 50k crates over the 3 months ) - and assume 75k crates per month Oct - Dec. = 225k crates

Add PFs 59% increase which MPS would have known were incoming for Jan - Feb = 240k crates

Even though we keep been told that numbers are up and more traffic is coming because we have a deep port etc etc , assume the numbers were expected to drop back to a conservative 75k March through to end of June = 300k crates

Total crates up to end of June of 765k x £7.00 = £5.3M assume a 55% margin ( 2018 finals) of £2.9M profit up to end of June ......so if the numbers were anywhere like £7 why go to wonga....... PF s refusal to give any hint of a price per crate speaks volumes imo......

What number do you disagree with ?

Lungi / Training MSC - £1m
Keyguard per Q (based on last accounts 2016) - £375k
Asia Port Screening from Q2 2019 ( $1.7m ) £1.4m
SQ deposit + 3 instalments - £70k
Euro ops ,Saudi,Germany ,assume £0

Total £2.85m leaving £1.35M from Tema for Q1

Why go on the attack ? I'm happy to be corrected.

How much of that Q1 £4.2m is from Tema ?

The head scratcher for me is if the £4.28 number is anywhere near based on the volumes , why did we go to Wonga.com....?

£4.2m for Q1 is nowt to be sneezed at , though when you dig in the picture gets a little cloudy .. ...... If I’m interpreting the numbers ( all ball park ) for Q1 correctly;

Lungi / Training MSC - £1m
Keyguard per Q (based on last accounts 2016) - £375k
Asia Port Screening from Q2 2019 ( $1.7m ) £1.4m
SQ deposit + 3 instalments - £70k
Euro ops ,Saudi,Germany ,assume £0

Total £2.85m leaving £1.35M from Tema for Q1

We know Tema was circa 900k crates last year so 75k pr month average - add in PFs 59% YOY increase for Jan & Feb = 120k ish pr month , assume March came in at 2019 numbers = 315k crates for Q1 .

£1.35m / 315k crates = £4.28 per crate .
In no way the lions share of £15 as per PFs AGM whisper , though nothing wrong with £4.28 per box.

Thing is I don’t believe he wouldn’t have included some of that ($2.1m) £1.7m tech from the 1st April RNS in Q1 numbers ...question is how much ....../o:

for the Accountants please from the 1st April RNS

Would these numbers have been “booked” in Q1..?
“So far in Q1 2020, the Group has received over $2.1 million USD of online product orders of which $1.7 million USD were in March 2020 “

Thanks Ian - Interesting piece .

Sorry to hear of you loss .

I am mindful that there are a few hoops to jump through so fingers crossed.

Absolutely - And in the meantime I’m sure PF will outline all of the tech sales numbers in a concise and unambiguous update.

We will have sold and will no doubt be selling some kit, though its slightly disconcerting that of all of the top secret sales we must be bagging the one he chose to share was an £8k sale to an NBA team.

Ian -

Boot is talking about an antigen test - As I’m sure your aware the throat swab test you refer to is a PCR test which can detect the virus from a few days after infection , this test requires the swab sample to be sent to a lab for analysis where it takes between 45mins - 4 hours to produce results so a drawn out procedure .

The antibody test (which there are hundreds , and most very inaccurate), will only detect the virus once the patient has been infected for a number of days , if recently infected it won’t detect whether the patient HAS the virus, and therefore whether he/she is infectious / shedding it as the body wont have produced antibodies to fight the infection at the initial stage of infection, and as you rightly point out this test is all over the place in terms of accuracy as no one seems to be able to get it right .

The antigen test , which I’m astonished has hardly been touched on by the media was successfully developed in 2016 to test for the Zika virus, it never found its way on to a lateral flow test as the outbreak petered out thus rendering the test useless , however the scientists have successfully reworked it in the lab, as we speak it’s being applied to a lateral flow test ( think pregnancy test) , they will know in a few weeks if it has been successfully transferred, the company that’s developed it has confirmed the test doesn’t cross react with closely related viruses thus making the test highly accurate and fast , it will be an affordable saliva test producing results in a matter of minutes.

https://avacta.com/avacta-ceo-alastair-smith-provides-update-on-covid-19-collaboration-with-cytiva/

They have a collaboration with one , and are talking to two other pharmaceuticals to mass produce the test in the billions - IF IT WORKS , which I hope for everyones sake it does , it will not only get the world back to work , you won’t set foot in an airport lounge anywhere in the world without having been tested as it will be the only way to get the planes back in the sky ...... with respect the to the fever detection equipment , there is of course currently a boom in sales so one would think we will benefit , however IF , this test comes on stream , (and if this doesn’t another one will) , the fever detection machine will quickly become akin to the office fax machine .....so a limited revenue stream in respect of Covid 19 ........AIMHO

No installation or training required - to give the sale perspective that item retails at £8k

No doubt - There clearly has been a huge increase in sales across the globe ...

The pharma’s appear to be weeks away from an affordable point of care throw away saliva test, producing results in minutes .....IMO the test will be mandatory to fly anywhere rendering fever detection equipment at airports redundant ....

Ian - Re your 12.35 I obtained a quote from a competitor for a similar product - £18k

Ok Mike , thanks for pointing that out , so which is it ?

A - 59% increase on the crates we scanned
B - 59% increase on the total throughput for the year

Mike - Excellent posts.

Let’s see what PF tells us in a week or so - I’m sure he’ll bring us right up to speed ..(o:

Aim - agreed .i don’t think it’s unrealistic to see Tema numbers 2020 come in line with 2019. What we won’t see is this 59% YOY nonsense which gets rolled out as factual.

AP Moller Maersk CEO - The largest shipping company in the world & 35% JV owners of Meridian Port Services - 20th March 2020

“ Because of the current situation with high uncertainties related to global demand due to the Covid 19 pandemic , and the measures been taken by governments to contain the outbreak we have chosen to suspend our 2020 full year guidance on earnings but will, as soon as we have more clarity return with an outlook for 2020.

The Pandemic “ severely impacts” global freight markets and supply chains and has led to a lack of visibility related to the global demands for container transport.”

But wtf does he know |o:

(o:

I think your making it up as you go along.

“TEU numbers for 2020 are likely to be well over the almost 1 million seen last year.”

How does that compute with PF’s 59% increase ....(o:

Economists seem to agree we’re approaching a global recession.

Ghana container port traffic dropped 10% in the recession of 2009.

I didn’t breath a word about Covid 19 kit sales.

I have no interest in Keyguard.

Thank you for acknowledging volume will drop .

What was misleading about my question ? the content was factual.

I didn’t mention what the ships were carrying- I’m talking about TEU freight as a whole being down.

I didn’t say anything about food , medicines or energy.

I didn’t say or even imply , nor have I read anyone else post that world wide ports are in lockdown.

“The main impact will be restrictions on changeover of crews because this presents a logistical problem “ ....that’s absurd .....where did you get that come from ?

The main impact is due to several billion people having spent / are spending 6-8 weeks sat at home - i.e economies producing a fraction of what they would ordinarily be shipping.