Member Info for Bigears1170

Belfry

Is this not the crux of the issue -Any news release is followed by endless head scratching of what was meant and or alluded too.
I'll give you a good one to ponder ;
Audited 2019 accounts advised $600k revenue off 309k crates = circa $2.00 or £1.50 per unit.

Yet the unaudited H1 report advises of $1M revenues off what we now know to be 297k crates ....so either we were gifted a circa 68% increase on our 2019 numbers or there's an anomaly with the unaudited H1 report .....(o:

ALB1
I wish you well with your “ investment” and hope you achieve your buy in price.

In respect of the Arden note It’s fair to say they could land one of their 16 airports ( 5 advanced )at any time , however for any newbies looking in it’s important to give that pipeline and the people behind it some perspective.

In 2014 ( when the aviation industry was fully functional and had plenty of passengers ,cash & terrorists running amok ) they had 42 airports with 30 mppa in talks as well as £368m of tech in play , suffice to say they converted none of it .........in 2015 we had a similar note to Arden from our friends at Hardman.
The 30mppa had diminished to a “ hot list “ of 8.3m pax in talks, to date they haven’t converted any of that either ..... so given the aviation industry has , (and will for the foreseeable future ) its ar$e hanging out of its trousers , and its still Peter & The Family Fowler sailing the ship you might begin to appreciate why it’s hard for LTH’s to get excited by any prospect pipelines.

In respect of our existing operations Fowler advised that we commenced 2020 with visibility on £8m of reoccurring revenue business. I suspect that will be closer to £4m in 2021 so with £5m of admin expenses it’s easy to see why Fowler needs a clean credit slate to raise cash at the drop of a hat as the business will imo be losing money hand over fist ..... AIMHO

Best of luck to all holders

Interesting paragraph in the Arden Report Page 21......

“Tema Port (Ghana) – the first berths at Tema opened up in July 2019 with a third berth following in Q1 2020. The fourth berth is due to open by the end of 2020 with all contributing to a phased ramp up of activity over the next 2-3 years. Daily container volumes through Q1 2020 were already running c. 60% above 2019 levels. Overall, the 4 berths that make up the new Terminal 3 at Tema will add 2.5m annual container screening capacity which at full capacity would represent nearly £10m of revenue and conservatively, £5m of gross profit. While full capacity is not expected to be reached soon and the ramp up will likely be slow, the overall potential is hugely significant for Westminster Group, both financially and reputationally.”

Fowler & his chums at Arden ( aided and abetted by resident tub thumpers ) have continually misrepresented the prospects of that contract by constantly referencing growth towards the ports capacity of 3.5m crates.

The ports handling capacity bears no relationship to the amount of containers scanned in and out of Ghana.

The port was expanded to transform it into a regional hub , yet Fowler & Co quote port capacity and future terminals as milestones to ramp up scanned capacity.

It will only ramp up capacity in respect of the ports transshipment capabilities as transhipped containers do not get scanned , as outlined in the Kyoto Convention guidelines ;

Kyoto Convention guidelines to specific Annex E

“When designing a transhipment procedure, Customs administrations should recognize the following essential features of transhipment operations :
- the goods concerned arrive in the Customs territory only for the purpose of being transferred to another means of transport for removal from the territory;
- the transfer and removal usually takes place within a very short timeframe; and
- throughout their stay in the Customs territory, the goods are at all times under Customs control by virtue of remaining within the area of the Customs office.

In essence despite their arrival in the area of the Customs office, the goods are not "entering" the country in any real sense. The control procedures which would be applied, for example, to goods arriving for importation or processing consequently do not apply. Equally, on the goods' departure, the normal control procedures for exports do not apply.”

Transhipped containers don’t leave the customs area therefore ain’t scanned, so If the port were running at max capacity the scanned crates in to Ghana will always be a fraction of the port throughput, example being Singapore where 85% of the ports traffic is transhipped.

Tema 2019 H2 numbers were 309k scanned crates , 2020 H1 (as sourced from the Bank of Ghana ) were circa 297k, so the 60% increase they reference is the “Port “ traffic and not “scanned” containers.
As one would expect of a WSG note dripping with obfuscation..just how Fowler likes it ..

Hi Foxy, hope you well.

Same old same old ....

That note deserves an award ….quite how anyone could muster fifty pages of positive tripe about this company is an achievement in itself.
So 16 Airports in play - and IATA are forecasting 2021 passenger numbers to be 50% down on 2019 – assuming one of those contracts actually fell over the line does anyone think that such a contract would be profitable based on 50% throughput ?

Q30: When a vaccine is developed for coronavirus will there still be a demand for saliva testing?
Vaccines are still in development and when the first ones become available it will take a considerable time to vaccinate a significant proportion of the global population before there is an impact on the need for testing. Furthermore, the level of efficacy of any vaccine, and duration of protection afforded, will influence demand for testing in the future. There will also likely be an ongoing, but much reduced need for testing once a global vaccination programme has been successfully completed.

Q35: Do you expect to see any revenue from any of the Covid-19 tests in 2020?
We anticipate, potentially, very significant income from the COVID-19 tests in development (Adeptrix research test, spike ELISA research test, antigen LFT and other undisclosed opportunities). However, we are not currently disclosing any specific financial forecasts / targets. We will update the market with financial targets for each of these products as soon as we are in a position to.

Q45: Who do you see as your nearest competitor?
In terms of the COVID-19 antigen test, there are antigen tests being developed all over the world. In order for a test to be competitive with the lateral flow test we are developing it must be able to be used as a self-test (as well as a professional test), must give results in minutes and not hours, be capable of being read by eye (and/ or smart phone app) and, strictly speaking, should be based on saliva as a sample (although nasal swab based tests are also competitive to a large extent). PCR is therefore not competitive, nor is any method that needs sophisticated laboratory-based equipment to process or read the test. Our view is that there is such a huge demand for rapid antigen testing that there could be many “competitive” tests launched and the demand would still likely out-strip supply, so we are not concerned about competition in the normal commercial sense in this case.

Gibbo

What do you interpret my agenda as being ?

The numbers belong to the Bank of Ghana so one would assume they were compiled by an independent bean counter.

The HY 1 $1m number is interesting as it shows a nearly a 70% increase on revenues off less port traffic - that’s based on information provided by PF.

“Economic activities at the country’s two-main harbours (Tema and Takoradi), as measured by container traffic, recorded a decline during the second quarter of 2020 compared with what was observed in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

Total container traffic went down by 4.1 percent, year-on-year, to 146,266 during the review period from 152,441 for the second quarter of 2019.

Similarly, port activity decreased by 12.3 percent when compared to 166,685 containers recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The relative decline in port activities may be attributed to a moderation in international trade activities during the quarter”

Takoradi & Tema combined 2020 H1 numbers 312951 crates

YE 2019 Takoradi accounted for 6% of total Ghanaian port volumes so reasonable to assume similar 2020 H1 giving Tema circa 294k crates.

“Most vaccines in human testing require two shots for effectiveness, and developers still aren’t even sure if they’ll prevent infections. Scientists are hoping to generate superior immune responses with inhaled vaccines that directly target the airway cells the virus invades.
An alternative to conventional jabs, sprayed and inhaled immunizations under development in the U.S., Britain and Hong Kong could play an important role in helping society escape restrictions that have upended economies and everyday life. Among their goals is to prevent the pathogen from growing in the nose, a point from which it can spread to the rest of the body, and to other people.”

Local immunity matters,” said Frances Lund, a University of Alabama at Birmingham immunologist working with biotech Altimmune Inc. on an early-stage nasal inoculation. “The vaccines that can be delivered to generate that will have some advantages over vaccines that are delivered systemically.”

https://apple.news/Aq_Z-2OdiQlC-z_LGq1dW-Q

Posted here last Wednesday courtesy of moniman - from 6.30 onwards

https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/uk-investor-magazine-flash-briefing

$600k revenue H2 2019 ( webinar presentation) / 309k units scanned ( Finals ) = $1.97 or £1.50 per crate.

“This is a strategy that is very inexpensive — it’s just about data and analytics,”

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/wearables-fitbit-tracking-covid-19-symptoms

Container traffic on the up

https://www.modernghana.com/news/1024469/container-traffic-improves-at-ghana-ports.html

$600k revenue H2 2019 ( webinar presentation) / 309k units scanned ( Finals ) = $1.97 or £1.50 per crate.

UNCTAD 5 year Pre Pandemic statement on world Seaborne trade......
“The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) recorded a decline in the growth of world seaborne trade from 2.7% in 2018 to 2.6% in 2019. UNCTAD projects an annual average growth rate of 3.4% over a five-year period from 2019–2024 even though the target for 2019 was missed. The weakening multilateral trading systems and growing trade protectionism are largely responsible for the dip in seaborne trade growth.”

(o:

My sister received the following on Friday , be interesting to see if it’s our test .........

“ we are writing to invite you to take part in an important research study to improve COVID-19 testing .This study is being conducted by Imperial college London and Ipsos Mori on behalf of the department of health and Social Care ( DHSC).We have chosen your name at random and participation is completely voluntary.

If you register to take part we will send you two tests to complete at home . We want you to compare the current standard test ( a swab test of your nose and throat ) with a saliva test . The tests will be sent with full instructions and it is important to complete BOTH tests.

If you sign up we will send you a package containing both tests to be administered at home.The tests will be returned to the laboratory by a courier who will collect the tests from your home.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/09/health/fauci-coronavirus-worst-nightmare/index.html

I don’t see any other option other that a LFT for international flights as the fever-tech being rolled out is nothing more than theatre , 50% accurate at best https://cmmid.github.io/visualisations/traveller-screening

Do you not think that whilst they would never admit it the airlines will monetise the test ?

"The Board anticipates strong near-term newsflow relating to the COVID-19 test developments with Cytiva and Adeptrix, further commercial partnerships to exploit the COVID-19 Affimer reagents and from ongoing commercial and technical progress in the core therapeutic and diagnostic businesses."