Member Info for Bigears1170

I neither said nor implied that to be the case …….PF makes plenty of noise about out JV partners , I just find it odd a company doesn’t exist for such an enterprise….

On the subject of our KSA “ JV “ – I found it curious that Westminster Arabia didn’t appear listed as a subsidiary company in the finals , dormant or otherwise ……….

Esduk

PF kindly confirmed that the 59% was based on H2 2019 soft start numbers and not the 2019 annual throughput.

In respect of my stab at a number I made two assumptions ;

A- Keyguard hourly rate of £14.00 pr hr - IMO won’t be far away from the number we charge.

B - That we get paid the same fee for all crates - This is an unknown but highly unlikely.
The information we were provided simply notes a number of crates scanned at 309k and we have an amount of cash from RR to attribute to that volume which comes in at the £2.00.

I do agree with you that our actual number (per laden)crate may well be north of this , however the average per container throughput will be lower based on the following thinking;

In 2018 the consistent number I have found for TEMA throughput is 836k crates.

That year the cumulative number for laden Import ( 503k ) / Export ( 119k ) crates was 612k which suggests 224k crates were a mixture of empties & crates imported in to Tema for coastal distribution to regional ports.

In respect of the former , empty crates in countries with such a large trade imbalance as Ghana is a pain in the rear for the shippers as the back loads can be at a discount of up to 70% on some routes , which I why I suspect the Maersks of this world would want to pay a heavily discounted number for port fees in respect of empty crates.

In respect of the latter consider this senario -

A Maersk container gets loaded at Singapore ( Bollore controlled ) , and shipped and off loaded at Tema ( Bollore / Maersk JV controlled) , then reloaded for local coastal distribution to say Lagos , Lomo or Abidjan , ( all Bollore Controlled ) as a final destination.

Do we think that

A - Maersk would pay Bollore four times to scan the same container ?

Or

B - The crate gets scanned at Singapore , barcoded to notify other ports it has been scanned and has not left any secure zone during transit , therefore no further scanning required ?

As simple as it sounds It’s a complicated subject .

We may well be getting paid close to Mikes £6.33 number for “laden” crates , however other handling may incur no scanning or will be heavily subsidised which will bring the average £ take down against throughput.

I have read that shipping lines occasionally load entire container ships with empties - if we had one of these ships in Q4 it would clearly of brought our take down .................AIMHO and no doubt as clear as mud .....(o:

The 59% increase is on 2019 H2 soft start numbers.

309k crates / 184 days ( July - Dec ) = 1679 av pr day x 59% = 2670 crates per day x 72 days ( up to March 12) = 192k crates .

Assume the port trades the year on Jan - March numbers and you have 974k units YE 2020 - a nice increase on 2019 ......

As close as I’ve seen you get to one ....(o;

The only assumption is the Keyguard hourly rate of £14.00 pr hour - might be £12.50 but could easily be £15.50 ......!

FEEKS / IANB & and your goodself were full of guesstimates last week - now PF has kindly furnished you with a few numbers why not offer a reasoned assessment .....?

Hereandnowt - Thank you for that compliment......|o:

My interpretation - feel free to amend point out any errors / incorrect assumptions as happy to be corrected.

 " We are greatly encouraged that within this revenue growth, recurring revenue^ from our managed services, guarding and maintenance contracts (including 6 months of contribution from our Ghana operations and 8 months of Euro Ops) grew by 46% (£1.8m) to £5.6m (2018: £3.8m). "

£5.6M less Lungi £3.6M ( advised by Mike re exchange rate)

Keyguard - Finals ( Reference MS Performance indicators) 70671 guarding hours -assume revenues of £14.00 pr hour = £989k , say £1M
 
Euro Ops - Note 31 = £140k

Training - Note 3 = £234k

Leaves £626 for Tema

£626k / 309k ( Reference MS Performance indicators)= £2.02 per crate

Cant buy owt on HL

(o:

The 59% increase is on the H2 numbers.
309k crates / 184 days ( July - Dec ) = 1679 av pr day x 59% = 2670 crates per day x 72 days ( up to March 12) = 192k crates .

Assume the port trades on Jan - March numbers and you have 974k units YE 2020.

Why would the 59% not have been included in the forward earning guidance ?

Also Foxy’s interpretation of the anticipated 2020 revenues looks correct when viewed in context .

"We entered 2020 with visibility of over £8m of annual recurring revenue for the year from long term managed services, guarding and maintenance contracts and because of the nature of our long term contracts,

Mike

Agree - on second scan training looks like its outwith of the MS numbers , however appears everything else is in-

" We are greatly encouraged that within this revenue growth, recurring revenue^ from our managed services, guarding and maintenance contracts (including 6 months of contribution from our Ghana operations and 8 months of Euro Ops) grew by 46% (£1.8m) to £5.6m (2018: £3.8m). "

Try again

So RR numbers for the year at £5.6M

Lungi circa £3.8M leaves £1.8M across the following;-

Keyguard ( £1.4M PA before we got hold of them )

Euro Ops ( £200k PA before we got hold of them )

Training Academy £….. ?

Tema 309K crates scanned at Mikes £6.33 = £1.95M

So if Mikes number per crate is correct we have a £150k hole across Keyguard / Euro ops / Training Academy for 2019.....

Unfortunately I suspect the Tema crate number is closer to £2.50 than £6.33………/o:

Mike

To be clear do you believe its a 59% increase on our H2 numbers or a 59% increase on the average number over the full year 2019 ?

Mike - Shares , continuously since 2013 - Never taken a CFD position anywhere.

I didn’t say nor imply football stadia , I said Airports

Benno It’s a 5-10 minute saliva test , self administered in the same format as a pregnancy test.

It’s still an IF as it hasn’t been proven on the lateral flow test , if it works it’s a game changer.
I’ve seen it suggested that queuing for flights could be split into two segregated areas with passengers only permitted into the second area once they have submitted their completed tests (which they would collect upon entrance to the first area).

Its is worth noting that circa 4.3 billion passengers were carried on scheduled flights in 2018 so I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised to see the airlines monetise the procedure.........

Q1 sales clearly demonstrate an increased market for our tech, however If anyone thinks that they will be opening up mass aviation , Sports & Concert Stadia on the back of such technology they need to lay off the crack pipe.

According to the Annals of Internal Medicine a patient's symptoms start about five days after exposure to the virus , nearly 98% of patients develop symptoms within 11.5 days, with 1% start showing symptoms after 14.....what use is surface temperature detection equipment to a an individual showing no symptoms......?

Every loss of life is an absolute tragedy and I feel for all bereaved, however ....I don’t believe there is a country in the world outside of NZ who wouldn’t do things differently if they could start again.

In respect of the UK I believe statistics will show we were totally transparent and forthright in our reporting ( unlike a few other countries) , the numbers will emerge once we reach the other side of this awful episode and I don’t think our handling and loss of life will be anything like the worst in Europe , however to start throwing stones at any government when they are still in the midst of a pandemic is little premature.

I believe HMG did what any UK government would have done and be guided by the scientists, thus trying with the very best of intentions to act responsibly based on the scientific advice given.
Hindsight may well end up concurring with the clever bloke who said.......... “ governments must remember that rushed science is almost always bad science”.

The following is a very interesting and unbiased piece on Covid 19 statistics.

https://fullfact.org/health/covid-deaths/