Member Info for Bigears1170

I wonder if PF will be updating the markets on his key goals for this year ?

Key goals for 2021 ;
1. Improve ratio of enquiries received/quotations issued by number and quotations issued/orders received by value;
2. Increase product portfolio and sales achieved;
3. Secure at least one more long-term managed services contract;
4. Deliver a year of double-digit revenue growth;
5. Deliver another year of significant recurring revenue growth;
6. Deliver a material improvement in profitability;
7. Deliver a sustained and material improvement in our share price; and
8. Instigate an Investors in People programme.

"Admin costs are 2.5 million" ? try £4.7M

“ Some providers may choose not to appear in this list. You can choose a different provider but you must check they meet minimum standards.”

https://www.find-travel-test-provider.service.gov.uk/providers#list-of-test-providers

Agreed – also appears AS is providing a stick for the media to beat the UK gov with his emphasis on the “UK “

"This excellent performance and ease of nasal sampling, coupled with the fact that the AffiDX test has been developed in the UK, is based on UK technology and is manufactured in the UK are huge selling points for customers in Europe."

Hard to see how international travel reopens without fast accurate LF testing on all flights ....... https://mol.im/a/9512239

The airport security fee is added to the passenger ticket via the IATA (International Air Transport Association) mechanism ,this fee is then settled by the airline or IATA with Westminster directly.

There is usually no contract required with airlines - airlines are given a non- negotiable instruction by the local CAA equivalent that the security tax will be levied. The relatively few non-IATA flights are still required to pay this tax.

https://www.iata.org/en/services/finance/clearinghouse/

I wonder if they’ll get a slap off the UK authorities ?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/dont-rely-on-temperature-screening-products-for-detection-of-coronavirus-covid-19-says-mhra

MHRA

“We are reminding anyone selling these products not to make claims which directly relate to COVID-19 diagnosis. If they fail to comply, we will take formal enforcement action.”

So out of character for PF & Co to try and mislead folk .............(o:

https://www.fda.gov/inspections-compliance-enforcement-and-criminal-investigations/warning-letters/westminster-international-ltd-613566-03042021

On 29 June 2019, the Commissioner of Customs Division of the Republic of Ghana deposited to the Secretary General, the instrument of accession of the Republic of Ghana to the International Convention on the simplification and harmonization of Customs procedures, done at Kyoto on 18 May 1973 and amended on 26 June 1999. Ghana accepted Chapter 1 of Specific annex A, Chapter 1 of Specific annex B, Chapter 1 of Specific annex C, Chapter 1 of Specific annex D, Chapter 1 of Specific annex E and Chapter 5 of Specific annex J; entered reservations against Recommended practice 12 of Specific annex A1, Recommended practice 7 of Specific annex D1 and Recommended practices 7, 9 and 21 of Specific annex E1.

So the audited 2019 H2 numbers at 312k scanned crates ( 6 months business)  coming in at half of the total laden container throughput for 2019 was just a coincidence..................|o:

Kyoto Convention guidelines to specific Annex E

“When designing a transhipment procedure, Customs administrations should recognize the following essential features of transhipment operations :

- the goods concerned arrive in the Customs territory only for the purpose of being transferred to another means of transport for removal from the territory;

- the transfer and removal usually takes place within a very short timeframe; and

- throughout their stay in the Customs territory, the goods are at all times under Customs control by virtue of remaining within the area of the Customs office.

In essence despite their arrival in the area of the Customs office, the goods are not "entering" the country in any real sense. The control procedures which would be applied, for example, to goods arriving for importation or processing consequently do not apply. Equally, on the goods' departure, the normal control procedures for exports do not apply.

http://www.wcoomd.org/-/media/wco/public/global/pdf/topics/wto-atf/dev/rkc-guidelines-sa-e1.pdf?la=en

Mike

We clearly interpret the numbers differently.

I agree , we scan all containers into and out of the country, imo that’s laden containers.

I’m aware of the 1M TEU number for 2019 which varies slightly dependent on the publication ,trading economics for example place the number at 1.1M TEU , they do however qualify the number as follows;

“ Port container traffic measures the flow of containers from land to sea transport modes., and vice versa, in twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), a standard-size container. Data refer to coastal shipping as well as international journeys. Transshipment traffic is counted as two lifts at the intermediate port (once to off-load and again as an outbound lift) and includes empty units.

Whats known is that circa 600k laden containers go in and out of Ghana - transhipped containers don’t get scanned as they don’t enter the country, this will account for much of the future growth at Tema which centres around the port as a regional hub for transshipment .

Are empty containers scanned ? I don’t know !

Data as sourced from Bank of Ghana Quarterly Report ;

“Economic activities at the country’s two-main harbours (Tema and Takoradi), as measured by container traffic, recorded a decline during the second quarter of 2020 compared with what was observed in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

Total container traffic went down by 4.1 percent, year-on-year, to 146,266 during the review period from 152,441 for the second quarter of 2019.

Similarly, port activity decreased by 12.3 percent when compared to 166,685 containers recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The relative decline in port activities may be attributed to a moderation in international trade activities during the quarter”

Takoradi & Tema combined 2020 H1 numbers 312951 crates

YE 2019 Takoradi accounted for 6% of total Ghanaian port volumes so reasonable to assume similar 2020 H1 giving Tema circa 294k crates.

The only guidance on revenue as issued by Fowler ( that I have seen ) is as follows ;

Tema H2 2019 ( Audited YE 2019 Accounts )
$600k revenue off 309k crates = circa $2.00 or £1.50 per unit.

Tema H1 2020 ( Unaudited 2020 HY Report )
$1M revenue ( off what we now know to be circa 294k crates) $3.40 pr or £2.50 per unit

For the avoidance of doubt its worth pointing out that WSG scan the crates going in ( Imports) , and coming out ( exports) of Ghana. Transhipped container traffic (which is where the growth in Tema port traffic will be largely coming from in the years to come) does not get scanned .

Tema laden crate throughput in recent years ( Not transhipped or coastal shipping traffic) ;-

2016 - 575k
2017 - 600k
2018 - 653k
2019 - 605k
2020 - H1 294k pretty consistent with previous years ... so fair to assume circa 600k crates for 2020 YE.

2021 - who knows ?

If you go for the lows--- circa 600k x $2.00 = $1.2M = circa £900k
If you go for highs---- circa 600k x $3.40 = $2M = circa £1.5M

Talk of millions of TEU is classic Fowler cobblers , he won’t tell you what the port does he’ll tell you what it’s capable of ......|o:

Where do I say the airport closed in Feb ?

Like I said , “If suffered at SL” , 40/50% entirely possible , though imo highly unlikely the Airport the airport bucked the trend across Africa ...... From uncle Peters friends at Arden ;

“year-to-date, commercial air traffic has suffered a significant decline. Our data on actual passenger flows between international airports reveal that Q3 posted a 69% year-over-year fall in passenger traffic. However, such data may not capture the true magnitude of the declines, as more comprehensive data from the IATA and IAOC suggests demand declines to be in the region of 90% when compared to the prior years. At a regional level, passenger volume in the Middle East and Africa has underperformed the broader global market, posting steeper declines and slower recovery rates, dampening hopes of a V-shaped recovery in passenger numbers. Total passengers in Africa is forecasted to drop to around 45m this year compared to 155m in 2019 (-70% fall)”

If it’s all the same with you outside of audited accounts I’ll stick with IATA for my data , and you can stick with your reliable pax source and honest Peter for yours .....|o:

I had a squint back at the Arden note regarding SL and compared their fairy dust comments with the IATA output for 2020/21 to see how they mesh !

Fowler / Arden quote an estimated drop in revenues at SL of between 40-50% for 2020 with an expected growth of 30% pa moving towards 2023 .

Lungi produced circa £3.75m in 2019 so for the exercise let’s assume an average £312k pr month.

IATA data advised passenger volumes fell through the floor across Africa in all but Jan & Feb 2020 , which if suffered at SL would affect revenues as follows;

Jan - £312k
Feb - £312k
Mar - passenger volumes down by 45% = £ 171k
Apr - July - Closed March 22nd - July 22nd
Aug - passenger volumes down by 87% = £41k
Sep - passenger volumes down by 85% = £47k
Oct - passenger volumes down by 78% = £68k
Nov - passenger volumes down by 72% = £87k

Approx 2019 revenues Jan - M/E Nov £3.4M
Estimated 2020 revenues Jan - M/E Nov £1.04M = 70% loss in revenue

Assume Dec comes in at Nov numbers ( released late Jan ) you see the 70% loss for the year based on 2019 stats giving circa £1.1m revenues for 2020.

For the eternal optimists / “believers” ( you know who you are ) out there it’s possible that that SL enjoyed its very own aviation micro climate and bucked the trend across Africa coming in at Fowler / Ardens 40-50% reduction on 2019 YOY numbers ..... personally I’d lean towards IATA data however generalised it might be for the region.

IATA expectations for Africa 2021 H1 being consistent with 2020 Q4 at circa 70% down on 2019 numbers improving H2 to circa 45% of 2019 levels , all but guarantees future financing to plug the hole ........AIMHO

Yrabs

The new BOT contract will undoubtedly include for the provision of security, however we know that a clause exists within the existing WSG contract to provide;

“any new airport security services ( whether at the FNA or any other airport in Sierra Leone) subject to agreeing relevant terms and costing.”

The conundrum I see is that Summa Airports generates its revenues by $ pr departing pax - exactly the way same way as WSG generates its revenues.

At their Niger BOT they shelled out $200m for a similar 30 year concession where they charge circa €52 ( $65 ) pr departing pax , which I presume services the debt, staffs the airport, runs the security and turns a profit ........so in such a scenario I don’t see how uncle Peter skips away with his $39 pr departing pax for scanning a ticket .................AIMHO

100% - They wouldn’t be investing $270m for anything less - a 30 year concession at Niger ....

A done deal ........ https://www.thesierraleonetelegraph.com/sierra-leone-parliament-ratifies-lungi-international-airport-expansion-project/

“ The company is actually in the best position it has ever been in”
Not too sure what’s the more remarkable the statement or the amount of folk who agreed with it .........../o:

Circa £13.00 per hour with a 20% margin ….