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@horsetrader2 it is important to appreciate that the £400k comes from Let's Explore and not Wicked Vision. This was clarified to me by the CFO late last year. Huddled own 75% of Let's Explore and so decide this themselves.

Whilst we can most certainly pick holes in some of the Q4 figures it is clear that this business is growing rapidly and that the new warehouse space has become critical sooner than the BOD appreciated/planned for. But it is coming and it points towards a doubling of revenues which will deliver substantial profits vs. current MC.

AOV is also rising very nicely and they have sufficient cash resources to achieve the above.

Revenues are growing fast. Customers are increasing wonderfully. Lots to like in my opinion.

@Jamesp21 I put it to you that you haven't studied the timelines and facts around the placing well enough and the wider market many of whom are annoyed traders certainly haven't. Investors should know that circumstances can change. That negotiations for asset sales with bigger players can be difficult and new courses and actions need to be set.

Did the CEO cover himself in glory? No. Does he need to do better in the future? Yes. But was the overall outcome better or worse for investors in this stock? Will the securing of that cash deliver a better tax loss deal? Was it a necessary evil to get into production and deliver greater returns for all shareholders further down the line? I say a resounding yes.

my issue is not with people's anger it is the fact that it is just this anger that is being discussed rather than the bigger picture. cards should be marked but far worse things have been pulled off at other companies and the stock still recovered despite the fact the monies were just to keep the lights on. Here the monies clearly are for something tangible and that is why I question its central focus.

What happens if/when the tax loss deal is closed out and a plan to get Blue Mountain into production this year without further dilution is released? Do we then still keep talking a bout how untrustworthy the BOD is? Do we keep ignoring the bigger picture then?

I am not on this BB to drum up business. I started on these BBs because they give me a chance to type out my thesis. Myreasonings in manner that keeps me honest. There are clearly very few people reading these posts so for other than that it is a waste of my time. The clarity i get in this space helps combat all the rubbish I have to read on other platforms these days. So I don't need to be avoiding hard questions.I will discuss anything aspect with pretty much anyone. but I am clear about how far the fundraise complaining should be allowed to run when there are much more important elements to concentrate on.

Have a lovely weekend.

The previous performance of the company under different management with a different mix of assets cannot be employed as a barometer for future performance.

The previous management team never took the tax loss deal this far forward. Blue Mountain was only acquired in H1 2023 and the CEO left a few months later It is an alluvial gold deposit sitting within 4m of the surface with a simple extraction technique. Production is now about finance to achieve and having a resource big enough to warrant bothering. The tax deal delivers (in my opinion) enough cash to ensure that first production can be reached either alone or with some debt attached.

Then it is about resources and cost to extract. At $2,650/oz (a pricing level previous management never enjoyed) the resource can be a lot smaller and/or the costs a lot higher and it would still be viable.

The words in the last RNS said,

" At the top of the agenda is our ongoing work to assess the most economical solution to bring the Blue Mountain project into production."

It did not say work to assess if there is an economical solution but "the most economical solution." Hence why I say the meeting with the landowner later this month could be pivotal. I also have the CEO's words about we wish we could tell you more about whats going on under the bonnet but we can't yet.

I don't expect a big operation from day one. But even 5,000 oz per annum would completely change ECR's world at just £6m MC. Especially if that initial production is demonstrated to unlock anything close to 100 koz fo resource at +90% recovery rates.

I wasn't around when the last management team failed but what I see now is that the current one is succeeding and working hard to unlock enough cash to get what looks like a very low CAPEX cost gold deposit into production.

One last thing to add.

Note that the tax loss monies may well be directed towards a new acquisition whilst at the same time bringing Blue Mountain into production in 2025. We know this because the first production is slated for this year and the tax losses cover medium-term plans and new acquisitions were also mentioned. It wasn't worded as being one or the other.

Those statements say that the BOD know roughly what Blue Mountain will cost or have a method for financing planned and it likely won't require all those tax loss funds. That's why I think smaller scale to begin with at Blue Mountain and then organic growth thereafter. Or partnering. Or it's just really cheap to kick off. The confidence around other acquisitions possibly being actioned at the same time heavily supports this logic.

Te devil is in the detail and not past performance especially when the gold sector is as alive as it is today.

These were my previous thoughts on cash burn from a starting point of $10.45m in March.

If we remove a further $150k for the 6 months of overheads from Sept to March 2025 then we should still be at $5.2m.

$2m PSA + $1.2m drill + whatever Ingomar is costing for the stimulation. The safety margin looks good enough if what Bo shared about the PSA/first production costs in the Crux meeting is indeed true.

But even if it's not then worst case scenario first production with one well must surely be covered and/or project finance shouldn't be a problem even if they only go after another couple of wells to start with.

Happy to be challenged on my figures if someone feels I have missed something. The only major risk I see at this stage is a massive collapse in helium prices but even then it would have to be very fast, very deep and last a long time.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1867178910003392789

Hi djm1,

I agree that Darwin #1 should be able to run higher which is why I've been employing 2,500Mcf/d as my base figure. 4-5 times is for me though won't happen.

What we don't currently know is what grade of helium was pumped into the PSA to achieve 48,000Mcf/y nor what its nameplate capacity is. At this stage, I feel I know enough to establish that there is plenty of wriggle room without losing its appeal such that maximum PSA output could drop considerably and/or the number of further wells come in at the top end and it's still a winner.

So until we have these details it is safe to assume 4-5 wells until told otherwise because it is still very much attainable because the front-end costs are now so low and should be well supported by existing cash.

If there is any upside in flow rates from Darwin #1 or capacity or it turns out that the previous grade was lower than 1.1% then I will be delighted. But I don't need it for this to be a big success. What I need is that first well tied in but I would like and think I might get another one as well.

What this discussion and detail demonstrate is that HEX is in a very good place even without Ingomar, hydrogen or indeed finance in place if it is required. What it also does is prove to me that finance won't be a problem. Their need so limited and they have much collateral to place against it.

All of which means I get all those extras thrown in as free spins of the wheel and if Ingomar's flathead formation can indeed be stimulated at 2.5% helium grade there would be tremendous upside to be had.

Note - There is always risk remaining. Nothing is ever guaranteed. But this now offers great risk reward and the market is sleeping on it.

Let's see Ingomar works reignited and an official update that supports/clarifies all of what we have discussed.

I copied elements of the presentation made in the Team meeting and there this was said under the title Darwin #1.

"Membrane/PSA costs circa $10m." That would indicate that this was the cost to bring this particular well online.

According to Bo Sears in the Crux interview, this is now down to a "couple of million dollars to get the existing well and plant into production."

Bo padded this out further by explaining that each further well tie-in is about the front-end membrane unit only because the refurbished PSA is capable of producing 48,000Mcf/y which from my calculation equates to 4-5 wells.

Most importantly whichever way I run the numbers HEX has that $2m available. I also feel confident that they have enough for the second Rudyard well and the Ingomar *re-entry' works and it this reality that matters most here and not how much was saved.

If they confirm this then the market at some point needs to start pricing in 2x Darwin + the PSA and its spare capacity because 2x Darwin hugely de-risks their ability to then go on to deliver the other 2-3 wells from cashflows.

Will the pre-tax cashflow hold true for just one well vs. 4-5? I don't yet know but there is a lot of wriggle room when your overheads are so low and each further well is being priced at just $1.2m. With Ingomar and its Hydrogen now effectively a free hit hat a wonderful set up this now is for 2025.

Now 500k at 3.11p. I won't repeat this again but yes positive.

When I think about how close ECR could be to achieving production and the fact they are Australia-based and in gold I am flabbergasted that a fundraise achieved at a premium to the last one is such a central focus. The potential rewards are incredible for a stock that is in a tier 1 mining jurisdiction and arguably the best mining sector for the foreseeable future.

All we can do in such circumstances is monitor and wait. So long as progress comes the interest will inevitably eventually follow.

As I said this market is risk off at the moment and from where I am sitting it is getting worse. I am not seeing much punting in stocks that have no revenues. Most are thinking about what they could lose if it doesn't happen rather than what the prize is. In addition, even very good news is enabling decent entry points post-release so many are simply happy to wait and then buy.

In terms of ECR the fundraising and the noise made by some familiar faces have made it easy for investors to ignore the detail and the facts. As I said earlier the lack of research in the UK small caps market at the moment is remarkable. Next to nobody is sharing ideas with substance attached. That'll happen in a bear market. It's very much a case of why bother.

I think this is exactly the time to be working the hardest and researching/buying companies that are clearly being misunderstood. It is a lonely place right now and I may not catch the bottom but in time some of these stocks are going to more than pay me back.

I've been adding a good few chunks at sub 16.5p. Cheap can always get cheaper but over a medium term timeframe ( and possibly even shorter) these buys offer excellent risk reward. So I decided to move before the wider market is told of HEX's plans and how achievable they are.

This early 2025 market is offering up a lot of value in stocks that have far more solid foundations than is currently perceived.

Jamessp21 the share price isn't moving or is going backwards on a great many of the shares on my watchlist. Som of them have very near-term catalysts and still, nobody cares.

I am reading so many comments on forums and social media trying to explain why individual share prices aren't moving up without any consideration for the wider market sentiment. We have started the year very much risk off and seemingly in a place where only actual news moves things. For those willing to research that is presenting some very attractive investments over near and longer term timeframes. That said cheap can always get cheaper which is why there is so little activity. But positive news can and will change that.

Dummy sell my end says they'll take 900k at 3p and 500k at 3.07p. Interesting.

The market has failed to price in all progress so far this year (3p a share in Jan 2024) but profitability or a clear message it will be reached soon should be a defining catalyst here.

I would add that in all my years investing I can't recall the market getting a stock and it's BOD so wrong. I won't go into all the detail here but there is ample evidence of the strategy here, the potential on offer and the effort that is going into protecting shareholders whilst executing what could be an enormously lucrative plan. There is certainly history between the CEO and a good number of traders who are allowing their contempt, their anger, their whatever get in the way of the true facts.

This BOD's best outcome for their now large shareholdings is to deliver gold production and that possibility begins with closing out the tax loss deal. That is a major milestone because it effectively delivers production at Blue Mountain. Get into production at a decent enough scale and/or demonstrate plans for expansion through cash flows and this is a multi-bagger in this sort of gold environment. ECR is as close as it has ever been to that reality and the indifference. The lack of support. The lack of understanding despite the facts is incredible. Yes, they pulled a bit of a fast one to get the last fundraise over the line but a sensible and well-seasoned investor should be able to see what good business it was.

Not only did it say to the buyer we are OK for 2025 so aren't desperate to do a cheap deal on the tax losses. It also accelerated plans for 2025 including Blue Mountain and guaranteed the future of the business in a market where many juniors are going to fail or be gobbled up for nothing. As is always the case time is required to prove this whilst naysayers have no such limiting factor. They can simply criticise the here and now without a single strategic thought ever entering their heads.

To top it all off we have a very astute chairman in place (never mentioned because all the flack is focused on the CEO) who has demonstrated an ability to think outside the box when it comes to reducing costs and executing production plans. Take a look at MDH where he is leading the roll out of a helium development planand negotiating deferred payments with fracking companies to save cash until production can pay for it. This is why his upcoming meeting with the landowner at Blue Mountain is so interesting. This being the person who helped out with heavy equipment for the digging of trenches in 2024. The actual mining fleet and work involved will be very similar when it is in production. There is a deal to be had there for what would be a big saving. These details are all there for investors to assess and make their own conclusions upon. But very few are prepared to put the effort in at the moment.

Still some hurdles to jump but I really do look forward to the day when production is achieved and the reaction from this wall of hate and discontent.

Having directors who are mainly paid in shares means they are fully aligned with shareholders. If they succeed we succeed. That's better than c. 99% of all other companies out there. It is about the best scenario any shareholder could wish for because they could quite easily take a much larger wage (c. 100k is not a lot) and sit on their hands and do the minimum amount. These guys started taking these shares at day one (90% of their wage) when they had achieved nothing. That's worth something.

They are paid every 3 months in arrears based on the 14 VWAP or the price of any fundraising conducted in the period. That's why this time they were paid at 0.33p.

One could argue that they could hold back progress in order to enjoy cheaper share payouts but over the longer term, such a policy isn't going to help them exit what is becoming a significant holding and a lot of back pay. Plus, by executing ever-increasing fundraiser they are ensuring that the average price level of their holding is increasing.

People bemoaned the last fundraise but it was at a premium to the one previous (as they have all been so far) and ensured that the directors would be paid this quarter at that level.

As for holding news back, there is no evidence they have done that and are currently busy completing the tax loss sale which has very specific near-term deadlines. If/when that deal successfully closes this BOD will have achieved a major milestone which will be the catalyst for early production at Blue Mountain and a possible acquisition that likely (my view) will be in a producing asset. It is at that point that the share price movement "since they took control" should be judged. Nothing is guaranteed but until this first plan is executed conclusions really should be put on hold.

Looking at the visual included in the RNS it is clear to me that they are hitting gold at very solid grades along most of the current strike. In addition, a possible strike extension is now opening up to the South which adds potential for more shallow low-cost open pit resources. That's enough in itself but they haven't even tested the Northern area of the pit. So much more to come. It would be lovely if the strike extends to the North also.

I would suggest Segilola's mine life won't be so low for very much longer. Eye-catching grades at depth coupled with grades along strike that are consistent with the current mine plan is an excellent combination.

It may well be another 6 months before we have the updated resource report but we are already beginning to reach a tipping point for the de-risking of the mine life extension.

I don't believe what I have written today smacks of over-optimism but I take your point and we don't need to labour it here. The trading update will do the real talking.

Nothing is ever guaranteed but take my analysis and join the dots.

Discount Dragons messaging before Christmas about getting Santa in to help with orders due to being overburdened with orders smacks of being flat out. Is the AOV likely to have gone down or risen in the run-up to Christmas?

Will the shared warehouse costs help profitability or hinder it?

If Discount Dragons was running at an operating profit in the last weeks of Sept is it likely to have been lost given the fact that national TV adverts resumed at the start of October and shared warehousing kicked in in October?

Given Nutricircle's growth since acquisition and the fact it delivered a small operating profit already in Q3 is it likely to have somehow fallen away or be compounded through further growth?

I could go on.

This market is full of fear and yes we need to see the figures but the facts available out there in the world say HUD has mostb likely moved further into profit in Q4 and a very good Q4 revenue figure is possible.

As an example even hitting bottom end current capacity of 108,000 orders in Q4 (so c. 18.7% growth which is not a lot given Beauty Boop's expected early traction) and increasing the group average AOV to just £45 would deliver 4.85m + Let's explore revenues in Q4.

I remember during the ITV shopping channel sales push they were saying that the £70 - £80 (I forget the exact figure) gift bags were selling out. Throw in the Christmas drive and that sort of figure isn't too lofty.

Let's see when the trading statement comes out but it won't take too much improvement supported by Christmas to deliver a big number.

To add I think we have to be conscious of warehouse capacity here also. As of the close of Q2 HUD had a capacity of 36,000 - 40,000 orders per month. So quarterly capacity is between 108,000 - 120,000.

"We have recently moved to three shifts during weekdays and two shifts at weekends allowing us to process circa 36,000-40,000 parcels per month, this will, we believe, scale further when the additional space comes on board."

c. 71,800 orders were placed at Discount Dragons in Q3.

c. 15,000 came from Nutricircle.

Beauty Boop at the same spend as Nutricircle (likely higher due to the type of products sold) came in at 4,100 but we have to extrapolate and assume quite a bit to get to this figure.

However, that still gives us a solid enough total of c. 91,000 orders which combined together delivered +£3.5m in group revenues.

All 3 brands are centrally located from mid-October meaning they share the same capacity until it doubles in February.

It won't take much growth from the 3 brands to fill the current capacity. Still, with Christmas involved and Beauty Boop up and running I would expect the AOV to be at least close to the Discount Dragon Q3 average but could well be much higher as customers stocked up 8and got greedy) for Christmas.

But sticking with the £39 AOV as a guide Huddled had the capacity in Q4 to deliver revenues between £4.2m and £4.7m.

Their headache is what to stock across the 3 brands especially when one brand is new but capable of the largest growth.

I remain convinced that AOV will be higher than Q3 because growth there has been constant on that front and Q4 is bound to drive it higher. I need only think of my own Christmas food shop and it was considerable larger than normal.

From February everything changes. Huddled's options broaden and the real push on revenues can begin.

"Fulfilment capacity across the Group will increase substantially as of February 2025, following the doubling of the operational space and related fit-out at the current facility."

If they can double it then the quarterly revenue ceiling rises to c. £9.35m allowing much more stock to be held and marketing to be pushed much harder. Hence why acquiring the last 25% of Beauty Boop before the financial year end wasn't just about good book keeping.

"full ownership will enable Huddled to justify making additional investments in inventory and marketing initiatives, which we believe are key to capturing the significant market opportunity ahead."

Investment in inventory just as their warehouse capacity doubles to allow them to achieve it. A strategic plan is in play here which really gets going from February. In the meantime, I believe Q4 has enough headroom to demonstrate operating profitability at DD and Nutricircle whilst showcasing the progress and potential at Beauty Boop.