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I think one key difference here which the market clearly isn't appreciating yet is that ECR (for whatever reason. Likely because it is proven enough) has used the 0.6 grams per bank cubic metre marker from BlueKebble when their own bulk sampling back in August already delivered an average of 1.55 grams of visible gold per bank cubic metre before gravity separation testing.

Further bulk sampling will confirm final numbers but if they achieve anything close to their own visible gold test figures then even the economics for the initial production hub size (which is a level I have talked about previously) will be transformed and all questions around costs being covered to expand will be dead in the water. Their own sampling figures are so much higher than that already that it makes sense to believe they will improve on today's figures until such time it is proven otherwise and today's starting figures don't look bad at all.

Important not to lose sight of what can be said vs. what is truly known.

ECR still has some work to do on the ground but they are getting on with it and we will know soon enough how successful they have been.

The fact he can say that prior to the Australia visit says that they know more about the project than they have currently published.

Immediately prior to this, he stated technical/resource reports were coming. This is great news because they can unlock a mining lease permit. But mentioning that they are coming indicates they ar already in play and it is that sort of detail that can allow such bullishness on the size of the Blue Mountain prize to be said so early in the year.

My notes from the 19th Jan interview.

When talking about the previous owner's guidance given on Blue Mountain of over 100 Koz he said "we can improve on that considerably." "I think we can improve on that whole opportunity." (Blue Mountain). "That opportunity is bigger and it's going to come quicker than the market believes."

Agreed. The point I was making was that the messaging has been very consistent and indicates as strongly as it can within the confines of AIM rules that the plans are further along than can be stated at the time. This message has been repeated by the CEO many times over in recent interviews.

It also applies to Bluer Mountain and other elements that clearly exist but have yet to be published. I think ECR is going to surprise a good few in the coming weeks/months and I include Blue Mountain in that which I think is a much bigger prize than currently known. My opinion only.

Worth remembering that Nick Tulloch said this in the 26th Nov 2024 RNS,

"I intend to travel to Australia in the second half of January 2025 to hopefully conclude the process."

Then in the 23rd Dec "ECR Directors' Reflect On Key 2024 Highlights And Forward Plans" interview he said this,

"I'll be out in Australia in a few weeks. I'm going to go up there (Blue Mountain). I say up there because I'll be starting in Victoria." Victoria is Melbourne and Ballieston country where the potential buyer is located.

Jump forward to today and Nick is in Australia meeting with the advisors and the proposed buyer of MGA in Victoria just as he had forecast the day the exclusivity period was extended. It's like there's a defined plan playing out right in front of our eyes.

@HarChris I am done attempting to engage with the thought process of the likes of Cocobeans. I only answered yesterday because I felt for those that might be sucked in by such nonsense.

I could list a significant number of examples from my various notes that when assessed logically completely undermine any notion that the ECR team is doing anything but progressing this business. I agree that the hints and the I know something you don't lines could be toned down but then at the same time we slate CEOs who never communicate and never do PR. So if I have to choose I know which I prefer.

What these messages do say though is that significant progress is coming because otherwise, they are going to look very foolish and in doing so would be putting their chances of selling their now substantial stakes in this business for a profit in jeopardy.

I have said it several times before the most profitable outcome for the BOD here is to deliver growth through production and/or other opportunities. That is how they get paid and in turn how we take part and how it should be in this world we call investing.

Bulls can never claim anything too strongly because there is always a chance however small that they could be wrong. It is this chance that the likes of Cocobean feed upon. The doubt. The 'what if this happens' routine. It is a policy that works so much more effectively in a bear market where risk is feared and what can go wrong shouts loudest.

However, this is also an environment where the rewards for picking the right companies (over time) can be the greatest because the discount is so heavy. But we have to choose carefully and personally, I feel very strongly that I have done that with ECR because it has all the ingredients to deliver really big and such plays don't come along very often. Is there still risk? Absolutely but risk reward is where I am focused and here it looks very good indeed and by this, I don't just mean 50%.

Important to remember that they only secured their additional funding six days ago. This funding was key to allowing company funds to be released to action the next steps. CEO Bo Sears has shown himself to be someone who likes to get on with things quickly. I see no reason why he would change spots. Heck, he bought the pSA during the Christmas break.

So when I say patience I do not assign any timeline to that because the progress machine that is HEX likely won't be hanging around and so things can change here very quickly.

When AIM companies raise funds there is an inevitable process of share churn that needs to be gone through that has next to nothing to do with the company's fundamentals. In a bear market that process is amplified.

I can give you several examples of companies that I own that are about to deliver significant progress and the majority of the market do not show interest until it is right upon us.

HEX will churn for as long as it takes. But news is coming. Activity is going to ramp up and when it does that churn will dissipate because hard cash and growth do the most talking in the end. Some patience is required but from where I am sitting this has all the hallmarks of a big winner in 2025.

The latest tweet from the #ECR CEO and Chairman.

"I suspect a few more things to boot shall follow, too."

I remember this line from his 19th Jan interview when discussing the current ECR valuation.

"We think some of the developments in the very near future will see that change considerably."

More going on here than perhaps many currently believe.

https://x.com/DDS_DocHoliday/status/1884504217437544503

Careful there Cocobeans.

I have shown confidence in the deal being completed and the prospects for ECR in 2025 but have not made a direct claim about the exact timing of an MGA deal. I mentioned conditions precedent as an option. I don't see the sort of obstacles in play that you do. But I also recognise that these deals can be complex hence, why the head of terms has an option for the buyer to extend the deal deadline by 1 month for a fee.

I think there's too much deliberate focus on the exact timing from some quarters as a means to drag ECR down if for some reason 31st Jan is extended. I've seen such behaviour many times before. It's a red herring. This is not about the exact date of the deal but the deal itself and completing it successfully.

At this juncture, all I need to see is the intent to get a deal done. If that means a structure is agreed upon and is binding and comes this week then great. But the key is the intent and Nick meeting the proposed buyer so late in the period set along with the scale of the meetings + the confidence of the BOD has me feeling very good about the buyer's desire to complete this deal. Especially when they have been engaging their own consultants for so long already.

For clarity, I have also repeatedly said that I believe it is Blue Mountain that will deliver the biggest gains here over time. I am excited by what the additional cash injection can achieve and the acquisitions talked about. But actual production with scale to follow is the game-changer here. Many still aren't getting their heads around how straightforward this alluvial gold deposit can be to mine and what that can mean for production costs as scale is delivered. The tipping point was establishing enough resources and an economical method to mine it. If they are meeting plant developers this week and talking about putting a team in place to run it then that hurdle looks like it is behind us (especially when they are talking up more than 100 Koz). So now it is about time to complete the plan, begin actioning it and communicate all that to the market. I expect the first production to be small scale but that's fine if it delivers scale which we have already been told it will.

Landowner sign-off is a key development because without it the mining lease process cannot be progressed. We are told it is a formality. We still need to see it in black and white but that's not a bad point to be at and be willing to talk about before the actual meeting on site takes place.

The golden goose would be MGA, Blue Mountain and a couple of acquisitions but I would gladly take small-scale Blue Mountain production from Q2 onwards as the only prize. But I believe we will get all three.

I would suggest it is simply the flipping element of the fundraising that is currently clearing. Not everyone is interested in staying the course whatever the potential returns may look like. What percentage it is is anyone's guess but solid buying is working through it and we will liekly notice when it is over.

That could well be the case JohnHenry and it may be mentioned elsewhere in the report. I was merely sharing those initial elements that I deemed were new news.

What we require is an official update which I am sure must be coming soon. The brokers cannot be sharing so much price sensitive information.

Here is another one,

"In Rudyard’s January 2025 reserve report, the technical consultants analysed pressure drop and rebound results, concluding that a flow rate of 2mmcf/d of raw gas per well can be sustained for five years before decline."

That is a very positive development because it could mean far fewer wells over the life of Rudyard and especially the earl years.

I would also add that those figures for Rudyard do not include the potential 3C upside which itself may grow given the company's thoughts around the increased size of the structure.

Exciting times especially if Ingomar and the hydrogen deliver as well.

Morning all,

It is well worth having a read of the above updated research note which came out yesterday.

Their target price is increased to 50p a share based on a helium price forecast of US$500/mcf.

This 50p-a-share valuation is based on a 10% discount. Reduce that discount to 6% and the valuation jumps to 64p.

It is worth bearing in mind that Rudyard's 242mmcf 2P reserves are valued at 19.6p and the 280mmcf 2C resources are 10.6p (risked).

Covert the resources into reserves and that should add a further 12p a share = 62p a share (79p at 6% discount).

Here are some interesting quotes for those who may not have access.

"Helix requires a total capex of ~US$6mm to drill the other two wells and refurbish its newly acquired Xebec pressure swing adsorption (“PSA”) plant."

"Helix plans up to five new wells by 2026, each benefitting from the newly acquired PSA plant and existing infrastructure, establishing a clear pathway to near-term production, sustainable cash flows, and significant potential value for shareholders."

On Ingomar,

"Helix will also be shooting additional seismic to target a well towards the crest of the Ingomar structure with drilling planned for Q3’25, testing both the helium and natural hydrogen potential."

My only minor gripe is that it would be good to learn these things directly rather than through a broker but that does not diminish the sheer size of the opportunity we now have before us.

Sorry, my computer sometimes removes the capitals when I hit publish.

these last few months i have been fascinated by this focus on driving the underhand dealings angle on ecr by honing in on ceo mike *******. all whilst completely ignoring the positive reputation that nick tulloch holds and the addition of mike parker a highly respected exploration and mining expert to the team. are these guys bent too? are they all at it? is nick tulloch risking his reputation and the future of mendall helium for a few quid in consultancy fees?

can you imagine how much these guys' reputational stock would rise if they pulled these plans off? they could write their own ticket going forward. or how much their ecr stockholdings would add in value if they deliver the tax losses + blue mountain production? do you think these so-called (and unproven) consultancy fees get anywhere near the value that combination would give them?

if it was just about fees then why pay themselves £100k a year with 90% in shares? why not just do what most other aim directors do and pay themselves double or even triple that amount? why build up a large stockpile with no chance of selling at a profit if the intention is to achieve nothing?

i could go on but these examples should be enough for anyone thinking logically and willing to be open-minded about what is occurring here.

if they pull off a self-funding staged expansion plan at blue mountain which is what the evidence is pointing towards (q2 first production with staged expansion through 2025 and all 2025 plans are stated as being covered without the tax monies. again think about the logic here) then this is a portfolio maker. end of and it has absolutely nothing to do with the tax losses or when a deal for them is closed out. but close that deal too and then add further acquisitions (which we are told is in the plan here) then that result. that portfolio maker gets an even bigger boost. i cannot for the life of me establish why anyone would want to be on the opposite side of the table to that sort of risk-reward.

Have you never heard of Conditions Precedent?

Morning all,

Around 9 days ago I put together a very long post reasoning why I thought HEX had entered the orphan phase of its discovery lifecycle. But given how uninterested the market was and how toxic this BB had become I didn't publish it.

Below is a brief post with a visual of the mineral lifecycle timeline. Where do you think we are today and what do you think happens next?

Then consider how short the development timeline for HEX is and that permitting (which can often be a lengthy hold-up, especially in more difficult jurisdictions) is not required because Rudyard sits within an existing field.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1882688935169843392

It has been touch and go at times for Bo Sear's helium reputation. He staked a lot on his experience and hard work. But the clever PSA purchase coupled with ensuring cash on hand remained healthy has landed them an excellent fundraise.

That combination along with the fabulous IRR numbers coming out of what is a nitrogen-based helium gas remember (which means it is green) and fast-track production means he can walk tall and will be backed for it.

He's made helium exploration through to production look a lot easier than it is.

I think this will now push to break out of that top resistance (27p) over the coming weeks/months and then go on to do some wonderful things.

Make that 3x.