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Another useful insight from the Longspur broker note this morning,

"This includes success in UK offshore electricity transmission owner (OFTO) projects and in interconnector projects including the UK-German NeuConnect project where a similar competitive tender process was run by OFGEM, who will be the administrator of the cap and floor programme."

As I said earlier IES has the right tech. There is no doubt about how good their Endurium product is but they need to unlock the projects at a scale that they haven't delivered yet. To do that you need the right contacts in the right places. Read between the lines here.

As a guide in May 2024 VSA (IES main broker) said this about what a 300MWh project win means for IES.

"We estimate FY 2025 revenue growing to £114.0m from sales of 300MWh Mistral VFB systems and £3.5m from ancillary services."

That is the sort of affect one 300MWh project can have on IES and this deal states that their goal is nearly 7x that figure.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1891768567864975713

Read the Invinity website on the Cap and floor scheme. The thinking as of Oct was that these projects would commence at 300MWh. This is confirmed in the CG broker note of 6th Feb. I did wonder at the time why they had released an IES note on Cap and Floor. Now we know why.

Invinity Endurium pricing is debatable but at scale it will certainly be lower than VS3. I would say a $400,000 per MWh figure would be a good marker. So for a 300MWh project, we are talking a £120m project valuation.

According to the broker note released today Frontier's "executives and founders are deeply connected in the National Grid and electricity industries." That is the missing cog here. IES have the tech but they don't have the know-how to get these massive contracts over the line. Until perhaps now.

https://invinity.com/uk-government-confirms-ldes-cap-floor-scheme/

Isn't this what is the most important point?

"Since 2009, Frontier Power has originated, developed, acquired or advised on c.£5bn of assets such as; interconnectors2 (including the UK-Germany Neuconnect project) pumped hydro storage and a £1.0bn portfolio of Offshore Transmission Owner3 (OFTO) assets which Frontier currently manages."

As promised HUD management has begun upping their PR. Most of the things covered here were also part of our chat but now it is much easier to talk about them more freely.

Do we have enough cash to get to profitability?

"Without a shadow of a doubt."

When you consider the growth he touches upon in both Nutricircle and Boop that is easy to appreciate. Also some much better detail around why DD SKUs are down and how they have re-centred the brand.

https://vimeo.com/1056856221

@JohnHenry you are assuming the worst.

Nothing in Bo Sears's statement talks about post-period but the Chairman's statement does contain such information.

"Post period, the Group is now focused on fast-tracking the development of the Rudyard Project, targeting first production in Q2 2025."

Bo Sears doesn't say anything about the economics of Rudyard. He also talks about at least two more wells at Rudyard when just a few days ago they released a programme showing up to 4 new wells. This is why I am taking the statement with a pinch of salt because it might just be out of date.

You are focusing too heavily on first production without appreciating all the moving parts. This is in part down to management who at the appropriate time need to communicate the Rudyard plan to shareholders.

They have no cash flow problems. They are fully funded so the exact timing of first production can be a strategic decision as opposed to a pressured one.

But I repeat my viewpoint that it is a wriggle room-based statement.

It is the same as saying "we eagerly anticipate re-entering Clink #1 in the coming weeks to test the Charles formation" because it is weather dependent but knowing that the weather will be transformed by Thursday this week.

If it is Q3 then it'll be a round of applause for an unbelievable result and I am certainly not going to be beating them up given what they have achieved in such a short amount of time + what I am going to get on top of this production over the course fo 2025.

OK. My guess is that this is the official wriggle room line but the goal is to beat it.

I just highlighted this to someone on Twitter who also only focused on first production timing.

"By the end of this Summer, #HEX could be sitting on 3x the helium reserves which on present calculations would give them an NPV around 7x greater than today's share price.

One acid stimulation test + a test of Rudyards 2C resources get them there. That is the real story here."

This is before M&A hydrogen opportunities or further drilling at Ingomar.

Those next "two" wells...

"As we move into 2025 and beyond, we are not slowing down. Helix Exploration is committed to pushing boundaries, seizing opportunities, and delivering results. We encourage our shareholders to stay tuned as there are exciting times ahead."

I am taking the official line on first production at Rudyard with a pinch of salt although the messaging is a tad mixed because the Chairman is still "targeting Q2." If it does come a little later, then it may well be that they hook up multiple wells simultaneously because those next to wells are set to commence drilling early Q2 and are likely a maximum 45-day turnaround each. Additionally, there is a very good chance that they test that southern dome and if it is successful then it would deliver a minimum NPV that i more than 6x the current valuation. Throw in a successful Charles test and it gets even more silly with hydrogen to come later.

They are cashed up for all of it.

Exciting times indeed.

Check out also Beauty Boop on Tik Tok. HUD has been trialling it since December and the feedback I got was they are delighted with the results with 150,000 likes recorded on just one day.

They are already at nearly 6,000 followers compared to Facebook 3,900 which has been running much longer. My view for a while has been that Tik Tok is the right platform for Beauty Boop and Nutricircle.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1890300097113866305

I love nothing more than to read people telling me that investing in small-cap companies does not require long paragraphs or explanations. You are not the first and certainly won't be the last. It's a disrespectful response and was uncalled for but as we all used to say you started it.

Presuming you read all my long paragraphs without falling asleep don't you think what I am saying is feasible? If you can pull your head out of your scar-ridden sand for just a moment could it be possible that there is a plan here yet to be told in full?

What if I am right eh? What if production lands in the next 3-4 months and ECR go on to deliver self-funded expansion? Will you still be making people aware of their shenanigans or will you be grown up enough to give them some actual credit?

Don't bother answering because just like the children we have decided to become I will simply say talk to the hand because the face is no longer listening.

@Jamesp21 I know the quote you are referring to and it was a lot longer than that and included weeks and longer references. But I take your point.

If you feel that way then why are you still here? I trust the plan because I have put the work in to understand it and I believe that with a little more patience, I will be rewarded for it. But if your trust is gone then what is the point of sitting here and moaning about it.

I've been here since Dec 2023. Whilst not liking the way the placing was conducted what I also saw was a raise price that was higher than the last. As they have all been. So yes poor show but I got what they were trying to do. I also like what is being pulled together at Blue Mountain at this sort of valuation. So I stay but I mark their card (which I have communicated to the CEO) and I support the team and the plan. If they do something stupid I may walk but other than that one raise they have done a lot of things right. So overall fo me it is forgivable because it can deliver a big prize.

Investors seem to forget how tough this market is to raise in. They act like ECR has multiple options. Those who have been here many years may hate the price depreciation but that isn't down to the new BOD and without them you would likely have nothing left.

If Blue Mountain has a far more developed plan than previously appreciated and is coming quicker and has a plan and team that will manage it in the country. Then management time isn't stretched as one might think. Furthermore, the de-risking of that plan between October and January 2025 reduces the emphasis on this particular Octo tax loss deal being critical to close. That is the fluidity of business. It does not stand still. That does not mean that it isn't wanted. More that the choices ECR has have increased and the pressure to do a deal reduced.

If we then consider the rise of the antinomy price (I posted about this earlier) and the increased interest this has brought. Then entertain the notion that the other NDAs (who we were told likely wanted to give less upfront but offer other deal structures) likely parked their interest whilst the exclusivity agreement was in place.

Couple all that together and we have a situation where perhaps ECR has another option and can take more time to conclude that option if they deem it better for the company and its shareholders.

Securing revenue generation at Blue Mountain delivers that. The fundraiue as unpalatable as it was delivers Blue Mountain.

Does that mean the Octo deal has been parked? No. But it says that entertaining new interest is more feasible because ECR is a different beast with production close. We could not say that in October when the exclusivity deal was agreed.

Many moving parts which at the right point in time require more detail. In the meantime, ECR requires patience which is clearly in short supply for many.

mike *******s 20.01.25 interview with stockbox.

guidance around blue mountain.

"we can improve on that considerably."

"i think we can improve on that whole opportunity" (blue mountain).

"that opportunity is bigger and its going to come quicker than the market believes."

25th nov 2024 funding rns.

"preparing blue mountain to be capable of production and revenue generation by the end of the first half of the year."

that was the market expectation in november 2024. on 20th jan the ceo is talking about that opportunity coming quicker than the market believes. this was prior to the site visit in late january. join the dots.

3-4 months to first production is possible and it is being signalled.

"A larger wash plant is then proposed to be commissioned. This is anticipated to either be made to order or purchased off the shelf and modified to be suitable for the ground at the Blue Mountain Project. Suitable suppliers have already been identified."

Do we think that this came out of the site visit or was it already being worked on once the company had sufficient funds in the bank (yes that fundraise) to back up their enquiries?

Surety of funding changed ECR's outlook and ability to push the button on Blue Mountain with or without Octo playing ball and that is the point here. That is the necessary pain for greater gain. Wake up.

@Cocobeans you've just shown me your true colours.

I've been on these BBs for many years and have seen your behaviour multiple times before.

My post was in answer to your post at 10.56am and that of Jamesp21. Characters like you don't want to be educated you just want to drive negativity and uncertainty.

"Your talking about perfect scenerios and business isnt perfect."

A classic one-sentence answer designed to dismiss and spread doubt about what is in essence many hours of research in one fell swoop. Hopefully, others here have found the details useful. I will gladly expand on what I have found if anyone wishes to discuss it properly.

Has anyone not picked up on the fact that Mike Parker was appointed one day prior to the Blue Mountain Gekko test results being announced? Is that just a coincidence? Did ECR need him before that date? Do we think he did no work on ECR assets until he visited site in late January? Do we think that is when the plan for production at Blue Mountain began? Do we think what has been written in the 3rd Feb update is all that is going on at Blue Mountain?

I give everyone a chance Cocobeans until I figure them out. I've got your number now. Going forward you can play with yourself.

It's amazing, isn't it? Even Mike Parker's reputation for building and running mines can be ignored if enough noise is made to snuff it out. Better still the man has brought major mines online in countries where it isn't easy to do. Now he's being asked to guide ECR to deliver an alluvial gold production project for a resource that sits 2m under the surface in one of the best mining jurisdictions in the world. But let's not congratulate the BOD for convincing him to risk his hard-fought reputation on ECR. Let's focus on what the BOD aren't good at.

Anyone who has worked in any sort of senior position in business will tell you it isn't what you know but who you know. If you don't have the skill base for a particular task then go find someone who does and give them a job.

The only two items that sit outside of ECR's control here are the mining license and the lead time for the first main wash plant. Everything else they have already been doing during the bulk sampling including water usage. They just have to increase the scale a little. But not very much for a 25tph starting plant.

Also, go do some reading around Queensland rules on advanced exploration permits. On their approach to alluvial gold mining. How much gold can be mined without a development plan? The rules around development plans once they reach the gold production limit. Also, consider that they already have a plant on site. They already have willing labour in the form of a landowner who has supplied his own equipment and personnel throughout the bulk sampling. Yes, he will want to be paid but again that is deal-making only.

Then review gold wash plants and water recovery systems. There is a small gold plant producer on YouTube who builds and operates these things in the US desert. He demonstrates very well how water used to wash the ore in the trommel can be regurgitated and used again and again. It isn't rocket science.

The company has dropped enough hints on all this in the official updates, videos and interviews.

Even the power supply can be generator-based. The margins will be so good that even initial diesel power won't hurt them. Bigger plans can be executed once production is underway. How do I know this? Because there are sole operators in Alaska doing the same thing with similar-sized plant. Sole operator. That means on his own with just a JCB and a bobcat.

The only headache is the license to operate but as I have said being alluvial they have a lot going for them there and they can still do some processing without even that. Mining in Queensland Australia is not like a great many other places in the world. Mining friendly means exactly that.

3-4 months is absolutely possible at a small scale with a ramp up plan following on from there.

This has the feel of someone accumulating around this mark. I didn't think so earlier but the price action of late is different.

We might not be far away from a more fluid market for HEX.

Why is that crazy Jamesp21? Give me your reasonings and I will happily debate them with you.