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Apologies that should have read „it should initially move on perceived…“

By that definition why did the MC hit £15.8m in August when gold was $500/oz lower?

It should move on perceived margin vs. EV and not solely on any target production number. Plus the book has to be clear. Just because c. 146m shared cleared from the owner doesn’t mean the MMs were out.

What I mean by that is that it is clear that gold prices approaching $3,000/oz offer considerable protection to cash generation. So then it becomes about grabbing the opportunity that comes with further production increases and what that can open up.

At these sorts of gold prices, the February gold pour is less relevant (short month remember). It is the messaging around pit 1 changeover and expected outcomes that is far more important.

Rememeber what I said yesterday.?

"Before the CLN transaction on 23rd Dec GRL had 752.5m shares."

On 22nd Aug 2024, GRL traded as high as 2.1p = £15.8m MC.

At that time they still had another £2.9m of debt on the books and gold traded at $2,480/oz.

Today debt is down by £2.9m and the gold price is at a new ATH of $2,975/oz but the MC is £10.35m.

Was the trust in the company stronger in August? Had they proved that they could increase production yet? Truth is GRL is in a far stronger position yet is trading at a considerable discount when all of the above is taken into account.

I firmly believe that nothing is done without reason.

So for me the 650 oz options point towards a target. I suspect it would have been corporate cash flow positive as opposed to AISC-led. But those options were announced when gold was running at $2,440/oz. So again higher pricing would pull that breakeven production point down.

The other options stating $1,500/oz for me are tied to the 1,000 oz per month target. Just my gut but directors rarely stretch themselves too much.

What is worth noting ios that those options were the first awards since 2011. Again another signal of where they felt the operations were heading at that point. Remember the gold loan creditor is on the BOD and looking for progress to justify their stand still agreement. That makes those options and their targets much more relevant.

There is also this statement from 8th July 2024 when gold prices were c. $2,360/oz and they had just delivered 225 troy oz per month in H1 2024 (since revised to 222 troy oz).

"These works will allow the Company to further realise the considerable potential of the Homase Mine's oxide resource base, with the key objective of increasing monthly gold production to 1,000 ounces within six months and achieving [increased operating] cash flow through optimising unit costs and decreasing G&A exposure."

Note they specifically included the bracketed words "increased operating" cash flow and that statement must have been based on the parameters I have stated.

Since then gold is up $550/oz and production is up by 205 troy oz per month.

I would dearly love to have an update on all this from GRL but outside of financial reports that is rare. As I said to another investor yesterday the CEO certainly wasn't giving off vibes that she needed funds.

The above information indicates that GRL should be delivering a decent-sized operating margin based on January output and the current gold price. It does not need to be an AISC of $1,500 to have a meaningful effect and ensure that thy can self-fund this last stage to 1,000 oz per month. Of course, I may have missed something but that is how I see things right now. I hear the messaging around trust and needing to see the 1,000 oz target hit but it could just as easily be the case that this sort of detail isn't being weeded out.

If I am right then GRL are already on a much firmer financial footing than the market thinks.

From the 2022 FY report,

"GoldStone produced and sold 5,155 troy ounces of gold from Homase."

"Homase has not yet achieved consistent positive site-level cash flow, with an average All-in Cost ("AIC") of US$1,369 per ounce average for 2022."

As far as I can make out in 2022 GRL was running 3 heap leach pads but how much stacking they achieved against the 550,000 tons planned I do not know.

Quite incredibly the 2022 figures are almost exactly the same as the January 2025 rate (12x 430 troy oz) = 5,160 oz.

In yesterday's interview, the CEO talked about Ghana's inflation subsiding. I don't know how much inflation has been witnessed between the end of 2022 and now. What I do know is that the Brent oil price is down from $101 per barrel in 2022 to c. $70 today.

Also, the currency has been severely weakened against the dollar. In 2022 it averaged 8.44/USD. So far this year it is running at c. 15.3/USD. A difference of 81%.

I appreciate that some costs are locally driven and cannot be avoided but at the same time, a company selling its product in US dollars and buying labour and consumables in Cedi must be benefiting positively compared to 2022.

So whilst I factor in some slack on the AISC I struggle to see how GRL's financial position cannot be improving at 430 troy oz per month and gold at $2,900/oz.

@Corrumpo Appreciated.

I am fairly new to GRL and whilst I do respect the previous failings I also note that where they are today is not all that far away from what they promised or signposted.

On 8th July 2024, they stated,

"On track to increase production to deliver the planned 50,000 tonnes of stacked and agglomerated ore, targeting gold-production of 1,000oz pcm within six months."

They also signposted this in November.

"Mining continues in Pit 2 which is expected to be completed late January 2025, with preparation work starting in Pit 1 to commence production in Q1 2025."

Plus,

"Remain on schedule to meet the Company's target of 1,000 ounces gold production per month from January 2025, from 48,000 tonnes of stacked agglomerated ore per month."

So the changeover of pit was planned but the expectation was that the last phase of pit 2 wouldn't affect their production target. i.e. grades wouldn't fall off.

No one can guarantee ore grades.

As things stand they have hit the stacked ore target and the move to pit 1 on time. The drop off in grade is a valid reason for only hitting 50% of their production target and a couple of months delay knowing all the infrastructure is in place to achieve it is fair and reasonable.

I also think this from the 28th June 2024 RNS is also very important.

"This (gold loan standstill agreement) also prompted the recruitment of a new operational team at Homase, which the Nguvu Mining Ltd has aided and assisted in. "

From what I can see the new operational team has been much more effective than the previous one and the additional BOD members instructed by the creditor have also enabled better outcomes at the mine.

So when we talk about pass failings we need t be conscious of management and system changes also. This in my view gives a better perspective to the slight delay to hitting the 1,000 oz target. The believability that low grades have caused it and so the chances that it will be hit in good time.

It is a mistake to judge a company on its entire history when those who carved it aren't entirely the same as those who now forge its future.

From my X feed.

All other factors aside we also must remember what the CEO said yesterday,

#GRL is 15km along strike and on-trend to Obuasi "one of the biggest mines on the planet."

125 years old. 1km deep. 70m oz to date and still mining 8 g/t.

Gold is trading at $2,900/oz.

#GRL already has a JORC 600,000 oz resource. So gold is there and the CEO said yesterday that they have drilled down to 250m and hit 8 g/t zones.

No drilling since 2011 is in that current JORC resource of which there's been plenty.

This factor has been completely lost on the market because GRL nearly went out of business and couldn't seem to make any money. The 1,000 oz initial target is not just about the cash flows and stability it brings but what it will do to open investors' eyes to the potential that lies below the oxide layer.

Apologies my calculator let me down.

Before the CLN transaction on 23rd Dec GRL had 752.5m shares which at 0.925p = £6.96m.

Tody we are at £9.45m. So we are net 2.5m better off and so haven't even factored in the debt reduction nevermind the risk reduction, gold being up $300/oz and a record gold pour. Nuts indeed.

Prior to the transaction on 23rd Dec 2024 GRL had 807.49m shares in issue at 0.925p = £7.47m MC with £2.8m more debt.

Today with 900m shares in issue GRL trades at £9.45m (so £2m higher for reducing debt by £2.8m and avoiding default).

However, since that deal was made GRL has announced a record gold pour and gold is up nearly $300/oz.

What a market this is.

From my calculations, the actual EV right now is about £13.7m minus any cash on hand.

What is also nuts is the fact that these guys managed to convince a CLN holder to cash in their loan at an average share price value of 1.89p when the SP was sat at 0.92p and the market so far has ignored that. They are net cash better off on that transaction alone and their debt is substantially derisked. Prior to that deal closing on 23rd Dec GRL was facing a default and losing their assets. Post that deal the balance sheet is much healthier but the EV is net negative. What a market this is.

No, the debt was $8.86m at 30th June 2024. Since then around $3.5m has been paid off.

That leaves c. $5.36m but to that, we then need to add the interest on the gold loan which runs at 14% per annum.

So we should be up to c. $5.5m by YE. I have allowed $6m to be sure because there are also derivatives whose payment and interest I couldn't establish. So it is $6m top end.

Our biggest risk here is a cheap takeover of the assets. The potential in the ground given how close this mine is to Obuasi is too significant to be ignored for too long in this gold price environment.

I also don't see current management standing in the way of such a move for long. But it isn't going to happen today and the next stage of progress should see the SP rise significantly. So it's more about the size of the prize as opposed to losing it.

There are some very odd prices across the whole small-caps market right now but I expected more sense in the gold sector.

Right now the market is all about finding the risk and ignoring anything else. I am a firm believer that digging hard into the details today presents excellent opportunities for tomorrow where the risk can be reduced or eliminated.

GRL has had a checkered past and has not reported its AISC for quite some time. So an analysis has to be done which most don't care to do. They also have debt which many take one look at and simply move on.

I have YE24 debt at $6m of which the gold loan is the majority. Negotiations are ongoing to define a repayment schedule. I have no doubt that the creditor will be well rewarded with shares likely involved. However, I have been impressed by the way GRL management has been able to secure debt and repayment terms during this cycle. That bodes well for those discussions.

The trigger here is continued growth in production. Ideally, they hit 1,000 oz sooner rather than later but any add-ons going forward continue to de-risk worries around AISC and cash flow positive status. I took much heart from the CEO's rather blase attitude towards the 1,000 oz production target and her lack of desire to defend progress. That says to me that cash on hand is enough for this immediate phase.

I am under no doubt that this target is the key to everything else and it is very close to becoming a reality.

I might as well start sharing these here where they are likely to generate far more discussion and interest.

My thread on AISC, cash balance, debt and CAPEX after being asked.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1899737946292445409

As far as I can see GRL always reports monthly gold pours in Dore. Troy ozs are stated at half and FY. On that basis, it was always clear that the 522 oz was Dore.

Also, the pit changeover was signalled back in November.

"Mining continues in Pit 2 which is expected to be completed late January 2025, with preparation work starting in Pit 1 to commence production in Q1 2025."

So they are running in line with their plan. What wasn't allowed for was the drop off in grades which has prevented them from hitting the 1,000 oz Dore target as planned in January. But it should come through very shortly.

The key here is that GRL is already generating up to $1.25m in monthly revenues ($7.5m for H1 2025) compared to $2.6m in total in H1 2024.

Given the CEO's demeanour in the interview and its timing ahead of the next production report, it is fair to expect that the 1,000 oz target is reachable and GRL is funded for it. Then as another poster has said they are capable of upto c. $29m in yearly revenues. Such a figure would set them up for exploiting what are great assets next to a great mine far more.

A little additional patience is required but the risk-reward is excellent at these levels.

Afternoon,

In the interview, the CEO also said that pads 4 and 5 can also be extended by 50m.

In terms of front end production targets.

From 30th Sept interims,

"as we build up to 48,000 tpcm, which is expected to facilitate production of approximately 1,000 oz doré per month from the beginning of 2025, based on the current recovery rate of 68% and at a stacked grade of 1g/t. "

In the interview, it was confirmed that the 68% recovery and 48,000-ton stacking continue to be delivered. That therefore just leaves the gold grades which we are told would be back to c. 1-1.1g/t when they re-enter pit 1 which we were told would be within 4 weeks of the last announcement. If they indeed hit those sorts of grades early on then they can be up to 1,000 oz Dore very soon indeed.

Hence why she said, "I don't think we are far off now."

My simple calculation says 48,000 tons at 1 g/t at 68% recovery = 32.64 kg of Dore gold.

From the 12th Feb RNS,

"On 10 February 2025, the Company achieved a record 16.253 kilograms of gold doré, equivalent to approximately 522 ounces of gold."

In simple terms this means that a return to 1g/t should more than double the 522 oz poured in January.

I will do this once today because you are a rude obnoxious poorly researched individual who simply isn't worth my time.

You are intensely biased here yet feel comfortable calling others out just because they sit on the opposite side of the table.

The processing method was reported on 8th Oct 2024. Inside 9 months would be July. I said in mid-February I thought it would be 3-4 months to first gold production (on an initially small scale) and I stick by that. The evidence supporting this is in the public domain you just need to be bothered to go and find it.

I am not inside nor a paid promoter. I am an investor who chooses to be supportive, trusting and patient towards a team that I feel is demonstrating that they are on the path to something tangible and valuable but who are operating in an extremely tough market environment. You choose to ignore that and act like turning around a failing junior gold play is a piece of cake that should be accomplished within 5 minutes.

Yes, I have spoken to the CEO and questioned their strategy just like I do with most companies I am invested in. The CEO has made it very clear (infact more clear than any other CEO I have come across) that he will do this for anyone who wants to. However, those spitting the most negativity like you don't have the balls for it.

I pushed for a new presentation and asked about broker coverage. But I understood they are as much about timing and progress as they are about necessity. I know several management teams right now whose websites and presentations are well out of date but I also know they are heavily focused on preserving cash and progressing their assets under very difficult circumstances. So I am prepared to wait but question as we go along. Continue your broad-brush character assassinations as much as you want. I have no interest in defending every accusation. Ultimately this team will be judged on progress and I understand that progress in mining takes time. But if they get this right then I am looking at a substantial return here so I am prepared to wear some pain along the way take my chances and own my decisions.