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HEX teams meeting David Minchin just said,

"No requirement for an equity raise. Helix is not raising money." Non-dilutive funding is the path to production.

"We are in a strong cash position."

It was also interesting to hear the Oak Securities representative state that the SP isn't going to be staying at these levels for long.

But the biggest information drop was the knowledge that Rudyrad sits within an operating field and so does not require licensing to drill. HEX have a "top lease" and so it is merely down to landowner approval who with significant royalties in place isn't likely going to say no. That is big news in terms of hurdles to enter production.

Lastly, one slide stated $10m for the plant which is lower than the current guidance in the broker notes. Still needs to be nailed down but this is looking good across the board.

I think the other key ingredient here that perhaps is being overlooked is the flow rate out of Rudyard.

"Commercial flow rates sustained at 2,750 thousand cubic feet per day (Mcf/d) of raw gas at 40/64" choke with Absolute Open Flow calculated to be over 4,500 Mcf/d."

Helium grade = 1.1%

To place that in context Blue Star's Pegasus project which contains the State 16 discovery well flowed at a stabilised rate of 285 Mcf/d at 1.9% helium grade. So a c. 73% higher grade but only c. 10% of the flow rate. Hence why they sought financing to drill a further 6 development wells.

At similar flow rates and helium grading to their first well, the combined total development drill programme would deliver c. 2,000 mcf/d leading to a theoretical helium output equivalent to 1.25x the first Rudyard drill result.

There is also the CO2 factor here. The Pegasus State 16 well contained 70% CO2 which Blue Star is looking to monetise where as Helix see "no significant CO2" as an advantage to fast-track Rudyard to production.

So Blue Star has to do much more drilling at a higher overall cost and time to complete to achieve results that barely surpass what Rudyard has delivered in just one well. This supports Helix management's confidence in finance being there to fund Rudyard into production in 2025.

If we were to compare peak flow rates (4,500 Mcf/d vs 313 Mcf/d) then the gap would widen even further. What is clear though is that the stabilised rate at Blue Star's Pegasus project is much closer to the peak rate whilst Helix has much greater headroom. This gives me more confidence that their stabilised rate of 2,750 Mcf/d or better can be achieved.

I would add that there is a marked difference between 'stimulating' a completed drill hole and "construction of well sites and access roads."

The discussion here shouldn't be about individuals but the Helix investment case and any information that can be found or established to support or undermine it.

Good morning,

Here are some thoughts I pulled together on this first helix commercial helium discovery.

If they were to follow the same path as Avanti and lease their production facility for c. $1.9m per annum then at 5 additional development wells (I would question the broker's thoughts on this because it could in theory be lower) then we are talking c. $12m in initial CAPEX for a company that I have still holding $5m in cash. Those are very attractive numbers with Ingomar and the hydrogen play potentially still to come.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1867469880645366262

Avanti Helium completed drilling their WNG 10-21 appraisal helium well in Montana on 6th Dec and then reported flow rates on 25th January 2023.

They had no problem with the Montana weather.

https://avantihelium.com/News-Archive/archive/2023/1

The other thing I would add is what would they be raising funds for?

They've only just discovered commercial-grade helium at Rudyard and don't yet know if Clink-1 will support it and at what grades. That means they haven't even begun to establish what the future looks like and what it will cost. The only thing we do know is that Rudyard can currently be drilled for c. $1.2m a hole.

Conducting such a thing would completely undermine all their rhetoric especially when most LTHs know roughly how much cash they have on hand. This lends itself much more to a detailed funding plan being put together post-Clink-1 and then a funding package being prepared c. Q1 2025. It may come with some equity but I see no reason why that can't all happen at once and at the right time. My reason is that they have sufficient funds still to enable a strong negotiating position when the time comes.

I might be wrong and will caveat my thoughts heavily but that makes the most sense to me.

@ProfitJock I am not saying for one minute that HEX will not take funding if it is deemed suitable. What I am saying is that the facts don't support it.

Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

I've been around long enough to know that funding opportunities can be hard to turn down if they are too good to turn down. So I don't write off additional funding too easily.

However, I am also aware that HEX raised $10m at IPO and had c. $450k in the bank as of 31st March interims.

The IPO cost c. $725k but was covered in the above interims.

The two-well drilling campaign cost $4.1m and the re-entry to Clink-1 including testing is between $500k - $750k.

They spent $100k on Rudyard acquisition and paid for a scoping study which will have been limited cost.

Admin costs are c. $150k every 6 months.

That tells me that they have (roughly) spent c. $5.1m of the $10.45m they had available which means there should be c. $5.35m still in the kitty.

This is why the BOD stated in the 23rd Sept investor meet presentation that they were fully funded for the next 12-18 months. Now I don't believe that to be the case because funding will be required for more wells but that doesn't mean that it has to now.

I am aware that there can always be someone that knows these things before I do and that companies can have their heads turned despite what they may have said beforehand. But at the same time HEX looks to have sufficient financial strength to not only complete Clink-1 testing but also develop the plans for the development of their helium discoveries. So why raise so quickly? What is the rush?

At $1.2m a drill I could even make a solid argument that they could drill Rudyard again with their current cash resources.

Like I say nothing surprises me in this game anymore but the evidence doesn't currently point towards a company that needs to raise before Clink-1 results are known.

Investors here who have ridden out all of the negativity and worry deserve to enjoy this day. It is damn hard winning at this game and so today is one that should be rejoiced. Any genuine investor should acknowledge and respect that.

This Rudyard discovery now gives Helix a platform from which to attack the Clink-1 results. The market isn't stupid. it knows this or at least it will in time. Over time there is little downside from here even if only Rudyard comes to fruition. So the current additional works at Clink-1 + the hydrogen are effectively a free hit that can deliver significant upside. Again the market isn't daft whatever the noise may be around placings and anything else that can be thrown at Hex in the coming days.

I support the notion that the Rudyard cashflow figures can likely be bettered. I very much like the suggestion around the Rudyard being a "much larger structure than previously modelled". That's new and won't have been priced for.

Lastly, we must not forget that we have a CEO with extensive experience and knowledge of the product this company is looking to extract. That has significantly more worth when he will have substantial cash flows to re-invest. The inflection point was a discovery and that has now been achieved.

There are plenty of stocks on my watchlist being drip fed sells as we approach Christmas. I had thought DKL would push on after yesterday's update but I think timing has scuppered it. It will however be very interesting to watch how trading develops as we approach the YE update on or around 10th Jan. It was interesting that DKL was keen to make the timing of this clear.

CPO production aside (which is somewhat outside of their control) I expect them to be bullish and the market will likely sniff that out as the new year gets underway. If Q1 CPO production bounces back as sharply as they have indicated then DKL is in a completely different place compared to this time last year when it was already trading at 2p a share.

Bear in mind also that this was the time when the cashew shelling machines were causing the most problems and no clear solution was in place. Plus cashew realised prices were below those seen in Q3 2024 and we now know these have strengthened further. A bit more patience is perhaps required but I like the look of DKL's prospects next year (prices of their commodities permitting).

Beauty Boop is busy producing their first TV ad.

Their facebook followers count is also up by 220% in the last 2 months.

HUD is a far more exciting little company than the liquidity in its share trading currently demonstrates. I too am very much looking forward to the Q4 update and the company's plans for 2025. If they get this right then there are multiple returns to be had here over the coming months/years.

https://www.facebook.com/BoopBeautyUK/

@Cocobeans It is fair to say that risk remains on all fronts. I also agree that funding should be focused on the assets with the greatest potential. The trouble is Tambo's potential could not be established without drilling it and whilst it may end up not being the highest on the list after this limited campaign the risk-reward was worth it. Plus they aren't finished yet.

The exact timing for the conclusion of the tax loss deal is no longer as material as it was because the subscription renders it so and that is the point here. The buyer had far more power if they thought ECR could not continue in business for the foreseeable future without the tax funds. After the subscription that advantage is now diminished. ECR can afford to walk away from this buyer at the end of Jan and still further their most important projects and even potentially bring Blue Mountain into early (small-scale) production.

This means that the buyer if indeed serious must now play more fair and be more focused. I may not like how they handled it but as someone who has been here for a year or so, I am grateful for the price that was achieved and what it does to protect my investment over the longer run. I also get why being funded during the next stage of negotiations was important even if it took the event itself to open my eyes to it.

As for the hoops that need to be jumped through I appreciate that in part but this is an asset sale that comes with tax losses attached. Regulatory hoops may still be in play but they have little to do with the deal being agreed and announced and that is the next key milestone on that front. But as I say the subscription monies take the emphasis away from the exact timing now. The most important thing for me in Q1 is understanding the size of the Blue Mountain asset and how commercial it is.

If it turns out to be anything close to the 100koz indicated by the previous owners then at $2,700/oz gold it can completely gazump any value that the tax losses deliver. Be it that the tax loss monies can help deliver it into production. With +90% recoveries already demonstrated and a c. 4m depth resource backed by a keen landowner I feel very positive about what is coming from that project.

To add I see it as very encouraging that a full 2 months after the Blue Mountain test results the chairman and chief deal maker of ECR is making plans to fly out to Australia to meet the landowner there.

From the 11th of July RNS,

"Gravels from 9 of the trenches were processed through a trommel wash plant. These excavations were carried out jointly with the landholder who has been fully supportive of ECR's exploration activities."

The landowner at Blue Mountain already has the equipment to dig up the resource for processing on-site. It would make sense for both parties to continue with that arrangement if it is mutually beneficial to do so.

The new ECR team set out at the beginning of their tenure that they would investigate each of their core assets to swing the bat to see if they could hit something worth following up on.

This was a limited campaign at a limited cost which had the potential to deliver a big win. They aren't finished reporting yet you feel you can make such solid conclusions.

Blue Mountain so far has delivered that big win. The assessment of commercialism and the plan to take it into production doesn't happen overnight. This is not a computer game. This is commercial gold mining.

Then we have the tax loss deal which was progressed to the next stage of negotiation with a deadline for agreement placed on it. You are merely speculating because it suits your agenda.

Nick Tulloch is making plans to fly out to Australia next month. He has so far mentioned two reasons for this trip. The first is to meet the potential buyer of the tax losses which is a sign of confidence and that things have continued to move forward.

He is also planning to meet the Blue Mountain land owner. Now why would he be doing that do you think? What could that landowner possibly offer ECR?

The options is a nonsense conversation at 0.3p because despite the size of them they have to be paid for be said directors and they aren't going o part with their money unless they are confident that the share price will not slip below 0.5p again. To do that the SP needs to be considerably higher than 0.5p. I would suggest 0.75p at least but likely higher. If you want to complain about a c. 150% uplift in SP leading to directors buying shares in the company then go ahead but I see little worth in it.

The Tambo campaign is very limited in nature and we still only have 3 out of 5 holes reported. The fact that 2 out of 3 holes have delivered results consistent with historical grades but at up to 70m depth is as ECR have said highly encouraging. No more no less.

Am I excited by this to date? No not really but I also accept that they have barely touched the ground at Tambo and so any final judgements either way are pointless at this stage.

ECR needs to deliver the remaining 2 holes with DOCD001 being of particular interest given its location and then a better assessment can be made. My focus remains on Blue Mountian and Lolworth backed by the potential tax loss sale.

If that sale is completed and delivers the significant funds that have been indicated then a further campaign at Tambo may well be warranted. But for me getting Blue Mountain into production is the quickest path to value recognition here. So I would need to see more from Tambo to justify returning there before the above has been concluded part of which may be sooner than we think.

I disagree with what is being implied here.

AOP has been very supportive of STX on several previous occasions and has had its chances to takeover the business (see previous token takeover saga). They could also have let STX fail rather than taking up this subscription but they didn't. They certainly would have picked up the rest of the business much cheaper. I believe the reason they didn't is because it isn't quite de-risked enough yet. That should now come in 2025. At that point, I would expect an offer to come for the remaining shares they do not yet own.

It is also worth noting that AOP included this in the subscription RNS,

"AOP is committed to supporting Shield’s success and has every intention to act in the best interests of the Company and, in turn, to seek to improve the valuation of the Company for all Shareholders."

I have thought about this over the weekend and my current conclusion is that AOP sees continued progress in the business as the best overall path for their eventual takeover even if it ends up costing them a few pence more. I put this down to a need to keep the momentum going whilst enjoying the safety net of the listing should things not go well and they should need to step in once more.

What that does is maintain the status quo such that progress on sales and NSP should take centre stage for the next 9 months or so. This is because "based on the Company's internal estimates, the Subscription would help the Company achieve its aim of becoming cash flow positive by the end of the calendar year of 2025."

I note the inclusion of the word "help" which is a caveat which I believe is connected to the fact they cannot guarantee sales or the prices achieved. But in terms of risk I would say that a further raise cannot be ruled out. However, with current cash enabling STX to reach Q2 2025 the additional c. $10m + whatever retail adds should get them close to YE 2025.

So the way I see it is I have at least the next 2 quarterly updates which can be assessed as I go in terms of supporting staying invested or bailing ahead of another potential raise.

Post this raise STX at YE will have at least £10m in the bank (including current cash resources) and at 3p a £31.5m MC. That gives them an enterprise value of just £21.5m.

For a business that has just reported $225 NS for October and is heading for +50k quarterly prescriptions that feels light even with AOP now in charge of things which as I say may not be a bad thing.

The vote needs to pass and then let's see what interest there is as we enter the New Year and approach an early Feb Q4 update which we already know started with a significantly elevated NSP in October.

We may never see 10p again but 5-6p is very doable if the momentum is maintained whilst immediate cash concerns fall away.

@Richard08 Each company is responsible for its own sales and enjoys the revenues from them. But both parties have supply inputs into every project. IES has retained the main IP which sits in the stacks and controls such that Gamesa cannot build any batteries without them.

Hope that helps.

@fairlysolvent I remember a presentation some time ago where Invinity explained that Canada production qualifies as US local content. That said there must be a major vanadium supply and VRFB production deal to come in H1 2025. The "expects to meet US local content requirements from 2026" wording used in today indicates that a plan is in play which will need to be communicated early enough for the rollout to happen in time. The US DOE projects being the first major milestone on that front.

After the drama of the last week, the quiet is no bad thing.

That should all change in January when the assets come far more into focus unless Tambo really surprises to the upside. We should know this week.