Current Situation16 Jan 2016 18:09
When I first read the article, my initial reaction was rather forelorn because I focused entirely onthe minister's comments.
However, after some time to think, I find that I am actually a lot happy because now I know what the current state of play is.
Firstly, one way or the other, the company has communicated that they are in receipt of the funds to commence both mines. That is a major positive as following delisting, it looked like all was lost. Now we have not only funds, but $30m worth.
Secondly, Mothae is still an option, be it with a very favourable wind, but it is on the table, be it now or through tender. If it goes down the tender route the company will likely have to decide to push Lemphane forward on its own for now, but at least with finance they now have a choice.
Secondly, from Simon Reutters comments, it is clear that the company has worked very hard for a very long time to secure this deal. Thats not me being sensitive or understanding because the handling of this saga, has simply not been good enough.
What it demonstrates though, is that interest, investment in the diamond industry is suffering on what is likely an unprecedented scale. Therefore, interest in new schemes of the nature and risk ratio of Lemphane and Mothae is extremely limited.
That should one would surmise severely limit the number of parties willing to tender for Mothae. However, the question moving forward is how serious is the minister and how aware is he of the shifts in the sector. Being intrinsically connected to South Africa, Lesotho's leadership must be acutely aware of the impact the slow down in China is having on their neighbours mining sector.
Furthermore, Lesotho unemployment rate is running at some 25% and is particularly high among the youth. Political unrest is well documented and the government needs their mining projects in play and the jobs that come with this to alleviate these sort of pressures. So can the minister, despite his rhetoric really afford to pass on this deal. This is Africa, so anything is possible, but one would think such a critical decision will ultimately be put before the Prime Minister, who has taken an active role in the new mining policy released last year. Lesotho is not a bg country and Mothae is deemed critical enough that it is worthy of mention when assessing the country's economic outlook, see link below.
http://www.afdb.org/en/countries/southern-africa/lesotho/lesotho-economic-outlook/
Its difficult to say what the Lesotho government will decide, as who knows what other plans/strategies they have in play.
However, I would much rather be where we are now with money on the table and something to bargain/negotiate for, than in the dark and wondering what in the world is happening. And finally having finance in this climate, is very strong position indeed.