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@Macaumike Yes when I spoke with Kevin Milne I was told that the plan is to do the same for the other areas of the business also. The view being that not everyone can appreciate or indeed visit an asset that sits several thousand miles away. I would still like to see the website updated but yes it is a good start.

For those that haven't seen it, the new farming corporate video on the company website is very good. The set up is very impressive and given that the rest of the data on the website is so out of date (something I have taken up with the company), it is good to understand just how extensive the farm is. With the GAP and BRC certification in place and the off take partner, some very healthy revenues should start to come out of this area of the business this year.

This RNS confirms that $1.8m has now been received, which is more than enough to start the kilns purchase/construction. The Global Timber Investments figures are $900,000 for 3000 hectares. That's a total valuation for the 315,000 total concessions of $94m. And the 5% payment each year is against their total investment, so $45,000. I read on another BB that someone believes each investor get $150,000 each per year. That's incorrect, it is 5% of their committed investment only. It's $150,000 total across all 3 investors. I have also posed some more questions to KM of Obt. He has promised a reply to me or to all shareholders as is appropriate under the rules. I also expect a full update across all projects very soon. Interesting times now here.

I suggest those investors that are worried about their investment, contact the company direct and seek the answers from the people they entrusted their money with. I was unable to attend the meeting and so wrote to the company today. I received a prompt response asking for a screen shot of my investment, after which they stated someone would gladly call me this week. I picked the email up out of office hours, replied, and now await a confirmation. It's your investment, get out there and start looking after it, instead of relying on some other faceless BB contributor to do it for you. And as for the cloak and daggers accusations, the company has gone out on a limb to try to keep investors informed. They could have easily enough stayed silent until they did or did not succeed. They have made mistakes, the plan has had to be changed, whatever. This is about now, it's about moving forward and about judging each part on its own merit in order to protect your investment, and if that means letting go of the past, then so be it. This is about the end result, and right now the guys at the top are our only option, so get behind them, or what little chance there is will also be snuffed out.

gfb258 I have been wanting to commence a mopre detailed review of this stock for some time, but the constant let downs and false dawns meant is just wasn't worth it. Having spoken with Mr Milne and seeing the devlopments taking place here now, it has most certainly become worthwhile. My investment is long term but in that time I see now reason (BOD performance related of course) that with the food certifications, Export Processing Zone tax credits, and now the timber investment, the company has all the tools it needs to drive revenues and move this business into considerable returns.

For those that are interested in the best case scenario here. based on a 2 year window, though they could conceivably get the timber output up far more efficiently than this. If the company achieve the full 60% ACP stated in the timber valuation and the 20% improved sales returns, then they are looking at $2,012m3 minus the $308m3 costs equals a net revenue of $1,702m3. If they produce 23,580m3 then that would generate $40.2m in revenues. The company must pay out 14%, so they would generate $34.6m pre-tax on the timber. With that 30% tax consideration, that is $24.22m (Or as we like to see £16.2m) Throw in the banana returns again ($9m equals £6m) and we are up to £22.2m in profits in 2 years. Current full market valuation is £16.78m. Even if they achieve the numbers I have stated in my previous post, we are looking at a £125-150m market valuation. And right now, i don't see a great deal of dilution coming our way, becuase what the main shareholder does add here is security that his 27.54% will be protected from said dilution wherever possible, and so us smaller shareholders with it.

However, even on a conservative sales return basis of say $1000m3, the company can generate $16.5m in revenues. Of this they pay out 14%, to the investors, thus leaving $14.2m (Or approx £9.5m). That because the timber concessions offer net revenues averages of 78% from total sales. And that for me is a very conservative position and it ignores their ability to increase the sawn timber cut from 60% of the annual permitted cut (APC) The timber valuation report also states that a 20% improvement in sales value, improves said net revenues by a further 26%. Thus increasing total net revenues of $39.5m from that 60% of the APC to $50m, of which $42m would be Obtala’s to keep. So the potential that the $3m potentially unlocks is considerable. And none of this takes into any consideration for the moves being made in the farm operations, which themselves in 2-3 years could be considerable. Taking just the banana plantation as an example: The company plan a 500 hectare plantation. They are reporting $35,000 revenues per hectare once costs are covered. At full operation this amounts to $17.5m in revenues to share out. Even at 50% ownership, once the partner etc are satisfied, the company can expect near $9m in revenues, just from bananas. And the RNS states +40 tonnes per hectare, so potentially more to come. So ignoring all other farm revenues, such as the mangoes, this company has the ability to generate a conservative $25m in net revenues, inside 2 years. At 30% tax (and I am ignoring the Export Procesing Zone agreement, which gives 10 year corporate tax holiday), the company has a strong chance of generating approximately £11.5m profits. If they aren’t paying tax, then its £16.5m. And remember that is based on a very conservative timber return and only the full banana plantation. That is why I am very much a buy here.

I have today increased my position here. Having also spoken with Kevin Milne, I am quietly impressed and can see that the new management is having a positive affect on the ground. So much so that I now feel this share needs to be judged on its progress since his arrival September last year. For those that have not seen it, there is a new promotional video on the website covering the farm operations. I am led to believe there will be further promotional work covering the other sides of the business. I believe we can also look forward to a full operatiions update in the not too distant future. I always liked the potential of this company, my problem was their constant failure to deliver. With Mr Milne there I believe it is worth re-consideration. Taking a position that the company can deliver, then allows one to interrogate the numbers, which for the recent timber deal are very interesting indeed. To be clear, the timber deal is an effective equity sale of 14% of the first 90,000 hectares. The company holds a total of 315,000 hectares, so they still another 225,000 to execute. Of the prices paid by the 3 investors, one can deduce a total valuation applied by the investors. Global Investments share is $900,000 for 3000 hectares = $300 per hectare George Miller share is $1,200,000 for 6,250 hectares = $192 per hectare Basic Materials share is $900,000 for 3,500 hectares = $257 per hectare This gives individual valuations of • $94.5m • $60.5m • $80.95m That gives a mean average of $74m for the gross timber concessions. Yes 5% must be paid to each subsidiary each year, but that is only $150,000 total. But what it does is give the company $3m to finally expand the timber business. It comes with no dilution, and the 5% can easily be paid from revenues that the $3m will generate. It also sends a very clear message that Mozambique is viable, that despite the geopolitical issues, 3 businesses, all of which will have visited the concessions, are satisfied enough to commit investment. It also brings with it a distributor, which from first review, looks like our new investor, one Valentin Bovykin, who has also sent a clear investment with his 14m share purchase. Now what really got my attentions were the numbers. The timber valuation from 2014 states the following. 1. Total ACP (Annual Cut Permitted) is set at 71,348 m3 2. 60% of this allowed for in the valuation, so upside. 3. 60% equates to 23,580m3 of sawn timber. 4. Costs estimated at $308 per m3 5. Potential sale price of $1,677 per m3 6. This is however heavily influenced by blackwood sales, which are $10,000 m3 7. The above would give total revenue of $39.5m per year. 8. 20% increase in sales results in 26% increase in net revenues. So with the investment and the proposed new kilns (see RNS 17th Feb), Obtala have the potential to access close to $40m in revenues.

@CleverSheep I have today registered my interest n the group. I am unable to attend the meeting in Walsall due to being based in Europe, so I would greatly appreciate views on the outcome of the meeting, be it here ot via mail. Many thanks in advance

First of all Bluke thank you, that made me smile. Whe I saw that I had an email from ParagonDiamonds initially my heart sank, as I expected a short declaration that the company had failed in its objectives and would be wound up. However, the invitation to a meeting offers thast most dangerous of commodities, hope. I would not wish to speculate, but it seems an odd way to explain their strategy, when an announcement on the website would be sufficient. It says to me that Mr Manduca and his team want to explain the difficult road they have trodden this last year. They state startegy for 2016, so they expect to be in business this year. What they will be doing is a wholely different question but for a company with limited cash, they have to at least demonstarte how they will stay afloat. Hope is a dangerous lady to lie with

og888 if I was starting out again in this torturous world we call investing, I would first and foremost spend some time looking closely at some of the biggest failed companies and investigate what went wrong and why. Learning what can go wrong helps us understand the size of the risk that exists in share dealing and perhaps be prepared for the signs that we need to exit a position and not go down with the ship. I would also spend several months watching BBs, learning how various companies I am interested in operate, how they compare to others, how investors react to news, what they discuss about it, what they discuss inbetween. Do not take everything you read on BBs for granted. there are a lot of rampers and shorters who wish to persuade the gullible to follow their path. Learn tactics, learn jargon, learn what language companies use in their accounts and their RNS statements. Then I would identify a list of companies that I was interested in, read about them, read about their business, their locations, management, and whatever else you can find out about them, time permitting of course, and then perhaps make my first investment. When one decides that investing is something that interests them, they first and foremost tend to think about what they can make, and feel the urge to jump into stocks because they fear losing out. What I would say is that more time should be spent concentrating on what one can lose rather than gain. That is because it is far easier to lose 25% of an investment than it is to gain 10%, particularly here on AIM. Anyone entering AIM without having thorughly researched the companies they are investing in, will be relying on luck to make them money until such time they learn enough, and that will likely mean heavy losses to begin with. Far more money can be made in the long run if one takes longer to learn things before putting skin in the game. Every investment should be interrogated starting with what is wrong or can go wrong with the stock and then, time permitting, try to prove that the stock is not worth investing in. This way one has to talk oneself into investing rather than talking oneself out. AIM is often called the casino, it is not a casino, it is just a very hard place to find good honest companies. Good luck whatever you decide and always always DYOR.

Thanks for the input guys, yes the social stock exchange and Miles Pelham are very tangible links. Still the company will have had to of sold themselves well to warrant what is a healthy if not super sized investment. A.k.a Muppet most welcome, fantastic story unfolding there. I would put the same effort in here if the company started to print and achieve a more definitive strategy. They could start by updating their website, which still states GAP accreditation is in progress. But for my sins I am still here

Well there's our buyer and what a buyer they are, both in name and size of purchase. I don't think it's their trading arm due to the name used, so more likely their investing division. I did note of late that Obtala are now registered as Food and Drug Retailers on the LSE, not sure how long that has been the case. They were frustratingly always down as a miner even after Paragon Diamonds and BMN stakes were sold, which severely limited their appeal. Question is what are they seeing in Obtala and what's driving them to believe it. They are after all not in the 'taking a punt' game. Perhaps it's the certification being achieved, but even with that they must have interrogated the BOD given the high risk areas of operation. Very interesting though

And by my count that is roughly 1m shares the buyer has picked up since 21st Jan. Thats interesting

Well macaumike, lets put it this way, I wouldn't have been surprised given the way this company operates. Thursdays are the day they announce things here, give or take one or two pieces of news. There is a buyer here, and they have been accummulating for at least a week. The company's management in my experience, are a little losse, so an information leak would be of no surprise to me. That said, I am not in the game of predicting information release dates, I like to employ facts and evidence as much as possible. The problem with Obtala is a lot of the facts contradict one another, so it is difficult to fully accept their strategy and their abiity to deliver it. That is why my investment here is very small at the moment and that is based on the new management not the old. That said if they deliver on their goals for 2016, then the share price has the potential to move considerably here. Like I said before, the melons order, as limited a revenue stream as it may be, is significant in that its delivery will improve confidence that Obtala can and will deliver what they say they will. But I very much like the arrival of a buyer, because one has to ask oneself on what basis do they believe it worthwhile to buy so many?

The way this is developing and knowing this share the way I do, I would conclude that an update is coming here. This company is as leaky as sieve. Thursdays are very popular release dates for news.

Somebody is accumulating, how much and to what extent they know anything is conjecture. Its relatively small numbers at the moment, but it is worth keeping a close eye on things over the next few days, to see if it continues.

Here's a prime example of what I was previously intimating towards in my post the other day. There may be troubles in Mozambique, but it does not mean that the investment tap is shut off, far fro it If a sensible deal can be done with ample incentives, then it will be done, whatever the politics. The article in question refers to an investment in 2 of the provinces that Renamo have stated they will take control of, something that is thus far only words, and I for one do not solemnly believe they have the resource, support or manpower to enact such an unconstitutional act. That may change but not for some time. http://www.macauhub.com.mo/en/2016/01/25/portugals-portucel-increases-investment-in-pulp-project-in-mozambique/

Apologies, in my enthusiasm to respond, I did not appreciate that Schoolboy was referring to revenues. Thats means that the $40000 per hectare over 150 would amount to $6m in revenues. What I was focusing on was the returns, which would be $5.25m plus the cantaloupe melon order. Just shows, you really should read things properly

On your point about the bananas, I believe Schoolboys figures had a caveat that presumed the crop would be harvested at the lower end of the reported harvesting cycle, which is 9 months, which would make revenues achievable for this year. In being so keen to attack his offering, you failed to point out that planting costs, and the seed costs of $110,000 per 100 hectare, is being paid for by the trading partner. Now is that to be deducted from the $5000 per hectare, one would think so. If so, thats $1100 less per hectare costs or a total cost of $585,000, not 750k as you state. If the company achieves the $40000 per hectare sales price, that is $35000 a ton gross return over 150 hectares. Thats $5.25m. A little short of what Schoolboy stated, but I will concede the company said +40 tons per hectare. So his numbers aren't that far away if the yield rises only 3-4 ton per hectare. You also failed to point out that the company expects to deliver 500 tons of cantaloupe melons in or around end of Q1 (if planted last year). Such positive income would help offset the remaining banana plantation costs. For all I write here I am not this company's biggest fan of late, but neither am willing to detract from the story unnecessarily. Your post is titled 'why post lies' I would ask can your post be treated with any less contempt, than that with which you have decided to bestow on Schoolboy.